MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 20, 2024

[ Friday, January 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 21, 2024 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/21/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -75

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-21 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024112-17342.2299432.2199637.22495105.69860750.230000000000022.379.2311.6TT10.22994-74.7700620356.90764067001 37.724640624930.7929292791201316 41151215WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024112-17342.2299432.2199637.22495105.69860750.230000000000022.379.2311.6TT10.22994-74.7700620356.90764067001 37.724640624930.7929292791201316 41151215WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:01FORECAST2024112-17335.16828.52631.847110.980329018630.3271655312.4671655319.2311.697165531TT3.168-81.83220360.1191012195239.9661363392370.55371939585241631151212.5WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2024112-17333.83628.25631.046110.743589670670.2748032982.4148032989.2311.644803298TT1.836-83.16420359.9760763009739.8650428851330.502601721778791631151212.5WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2024112-17334.9729.4832.225110.779505834120.3023623682.4423623689.2311.672362368TT2.97-82.0320359.9977804098739.8803762151870.546156456486741631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:01FORECAST2024112-17335.54629.33632.441108.503499819580.1787402541.9087402549.2311.138740254TT3.546-88.45420358.6184714386538.9113592510410.568101342165441631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:01FORECAST2024112-17334.64628.38231.514108.513114777380.1645670181.8945670189.2311.124567018TT2.646-89.35420358.6243150990738.9154414663050.53374580633631631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:01FORECAST2024112-17334.5228.8531.685108.231814199770.0803150041.8103150049.2311.040315004TT2.52-89.4820358.4532907011138.7960499584580.528909892485681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2024112-17333.8927.87830.884108.471216177920.0539370371.7839370379.2311.013937037TT1.89-90.1120358.5988494411838.8976533188890.50468059347811631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2024112-17335.04229.10232.072108.323051429690.0496063261.7696063269.2310.999606326TT3.042-87.95820358.5087742662738.8347643928390.548908700372821631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2024112-17334.59228.0431.316108.452104808090.0295275751.7995275759.2311.029527575TT2.592-88.40820358.5872327923538.8895401536390.531673839892781631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:02FORECAST2024112-17334.55629.1231.838104.884916297730.0610236551.5710236559.2310.801023655TT2.556-92.44420356.4090484673737.3819332162540.530292048638111631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2024112-17334.05228.79631.424104.539639144540.0535433361.5135433369.2310.743543336TT2.052-92.94820356.1971670475337.2367233074580.510916220226981631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2024112-17334.73629.42632.081104.909741824101.659.2310.88TT2.736-90.26420356.4242756428437.3923787375320.537197024635131631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2024112-17336.28430.39833.341109.6916208121701.769.2310.99TT4.284-87.71620359.339493266139.4165314381810.595905107221491631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2024112-17335.52829.13832.333110.50756860760.0149606381.8049606389.2311.034960638TT3.528-89.47220359.833399692639.7643141038370.567418374867291631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:05FORECAST2024112-17335.99630.00232.999110.037383515550.0598425521.7198425529.2310.949842552TT3.996-88.00420359.5489140194439.5638217445580.585104234460131631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024112-17334.4330.99232.711106.513004856980.496063262.046063269.5111.55606326TT2.43-93.5720357.4056348175838.0683481172390.525453014572221631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024112-17333.11629.0331.073106.811259091010.5019687751.9619687759.5111.471968775TT1.116-96.88420357.5877561196438.1943984666680.474898849753261621151210WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2024112-17333.22429.51631.37106.752041744330.5330711541.9930711549.5111.503071154TT1.224-94.77620357.5516075413338.1693641340040.479049824760951621151210WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2024112-17332.59428.54430.569112.117894847260.5437010812.2337010819.5111.743701081TT0.594-96.40620360.8051578102440.4527147437180.454882253815261621151210WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:06FORECAST2024112-17333.15228.8531.001113.27401406160.6641735872.4041735879.5211.924173587TT1.152-95.84820361.5003756949140.9485986397380.476282227717281621151210WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:05FORECAST2024112-17332.88229.53431.208114.291860222110.6137798592.4937798599.6212.113779859TT0.882-97.11820362.1107571992241.3863120467360.465915009923291621151210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2024112-17332.43229.44430.938119.796201178510.8153547712.67535477110.0612.735354771TT0.432-97.56820365.3843950081243.771662491880.448691037311011621151210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024112-17332.25228.88630.569119.474274548530.807087052.6770870510.0112.68708705TT0.252-97.74820365.1941907228643.631311005950.441826596891271621151210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2024112-17331.83828.86830.353120.195693529130.7043310892.74433108910.2212.964331089TT-0.162-97.16220365.6202113874143.9459748759780.426107826033791621151210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024112-17331.11828.29229.705122.494389496970.6425200322.75252003210.3113.062520032TT-0.882-97.88220366.9724689991344.9520685522430.399062385982661621151210WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:05FORECAST2024112-17331.5528.09429.822122.197463295890.7724413622.82244136210.1813.002441362TT-0.45-97.4520366.7982394824544.8218144061540.415240318114081621151210WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024112-17331.7328.63430.182122.1192707770.7377956742.83779567410.2213.057795674TT-0.27-96.2720366.7523360350944.7875278323660.422025465355671621151210WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2024112-17331.69429.87630.785121.053851004010.5602365232.62023652310.3412.960236523TT-0.306-94.30620366.1259648842944.3209580018010.420666515211631621151210WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024112-17331.83828.68830.263120.830848100690.4582679642.46826796410.3712.838267964TT-0.162-96.16220365.9946445379144.2234432998250.426107826033791621151210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2024112-17331.53228.2229.876120.130501900360.5173231142.29732311410.3712.667323114TT-0.468-96.46820365.5817457505143.9175186026170.414563156181561621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024112-17331.7329.58830.659123.900625914490.5775593673.05755936710.7113.767559367TT-0.27-92.2720367.795833967545.5701340373160.422025465355671621151210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:06FORECAST2024112-17331.80229.5730.686127.005359927750.5614176263.32141762611.0514.371417626TT-0.198-94.19820369.6033047873246.9416007550.424746136565511621151210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024112-17330.7428.02229.381128.353378640510.6539373613.56393736110.8214.383937361TT-1.26-99.2620370.3836485607947.5399926859770.385046512649791621151210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024112-17333.0830.2931.685132.017966740860.5578743173.67787431710.8714.547874317TT1.08-94.9220372.4915575106649.1755780506940.473515774342371621151210WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2024112-17332.9930.3831.685131.000313771340.4976380643.73763806410.9114.647638064TT0.99-95.0120371.9081594105748.7200855769040.470059518540221621151210WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024112-17332.55829.17430.866131.771066954370.7031499863.57314998610.7514.323149986TT0.558-96.44220372.350153803749.0649770473380.453505426526851621151210WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024112-17333.2630.25431.757129.898001866990.6279530953.52795309510.7114.237953095TT1.26-92.7420371.2745244958448.2278188761270.480434010543291621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024112-17333.13430.12831.631132.888441614660.6921263583.6621263581114.662126358TT1.134-99.86620372.9893864157149.5659782995930.475590501955461621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2024112-17333.81830.66832.243129.804081319340.3059056773.06590567711.3114.375905677TT1.818-91.18220371.2204546832248.1859300871040.501908746057421631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024112-17335.45632.7234.088127.259463738080.2688977832.15889778310.9813.138897783TT3.456-90.54420369.7506053393247.0542637523110.564684511131471631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024112-17336.66232.10834.385126.616765745480.2700788862.24007888611.1713.410078886TT4.662-78.33820369.3778580346746.7694297223430.609969836424071631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024112-17334.80831.2833.044128.262510820170.1779528522.13795285211.1513.287952852TT2.808-91.19220370.3311307563847.4996006656850.539955997343641631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024112-17335.65432.8134.232123.702336907310.2181103542.41811035410.1912.608110354TT3.654-82.34620367.6799118759945.4828643329320.572194803479761631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024112-17335.0631.20833.134126.216894945110.2137796432.44377964310.2112.653779643TT3.06-91.9420369.1456366214646.5924160368980.549596399391641631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2024112-17335.61829.78632.702124.370456261580.1157480942.2257480949.8112.035748094TT3.618-96.38220368.0702693808545.7770673392210.570831156812841631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024112-17336.69831.44234.07121.15955634730.0535433361.5435433369.8411.383543336TT4.698-100.30220366.1881859060344.3671981439970.611302173002241631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024112-17336.10431.5533.827116.18211783970.0700787781.4400787789.4410.880078778TT4.104-85.89620363.2401279589342.2020073506310.589162572528761631141210WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:05FORECAST2024112-17336.53632.41434.475114.498470664840.1228347121.4428347128.9710.412834712TT4.536-91.46420362.2344646965341.4752922298510.605296575324641631141210WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2024112-17336.03232.86434.448113.58846938260.1354331441.4954331448.7610.255433144TT4.032-93.96820361.689116593841.0837131462320.586458045822251631141210WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2024112-17333.94430.84832.396113.892775354870.1334646391.4634646398.7110.173464639TT1.944-104.05620361.8716222236641.2145633772230.506759338076061631141210WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024112-17338.333.1735.735120.261972366950.4464569341.7964569349.7311.526456934TT6.3-93.720365.6593119915343.9749100744440.669058752821751631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:05FORECAST2024112-17335.40231.76633.584122.73338210180.2523623411.08236234110.4111.492362341TT3.402-93.59820367.1126089887445.0569721134040.562632075212321631141210WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024112-17337.02232.82834.925118.877648983070.2255906731.01559067310.411.415590673TT5.022-89.97820364.8412742634843.3714729364310.623232601121381631141210WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2024112-17337.72431.6434.682117.371017241670.1996064070.9696064079.7110.679606407TT5.724-94.27620363.9476860108542.7169101298460.6486685057429163113127.5WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024112-17335.00630.30832.657125.850131472830.6334649091.4834649099.7511.233464909TT3.006-105.99420368.9324345182446.4301953887120.547532863901511631141210WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024112-17332.88229.1231.001118.288650541890.6271656931.4971656939.6111.107165693TT0.882-108.11820364.492344404843.1153075524940.46591500992329162114128WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024112-17330.86627.91429.39127.559684374050.7090555012.2090555018.8711.079055501TT-1.134-111.13420369.9245167190847.1874545949070.389702802675151621151210WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:05FORECAST2024112-17333.09827.10430.101128.290007652270.0129921332.7529921339.2211.972992133TT1.098-121.90220370.3470240557647.511822550110.474207273189511621151210WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024112-17332.82827.12229.975132.846310002390.0129921332.7529921339.3112.062992133TT0.828-135.17220372.9653164770349.5470660528450.463844112686681621151210WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:05FORECAST2024112-17337.14835.636.374130.54576469080.1814961612.7414961619.6412.381496161TT5.148-104.85220371.6470887957148.5169534019460.627841322915691631151212.5WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2024112-17323.3619.00421.182124.0760132345301.439.2710.7TT-8.64-134.6420367.8983188147845.6473566742220.15754167113047161114126WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:07FORECAST2024112-17323.3619.00421.182124.9511980034301.479.6811.15TT-8.64-123.6420368.4090376275546.0331506068520.15754167113047161114126WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:10FORECAST2024112-17327.46427.24827.356121.553219097250.0149606380.19496063810.4410.634960638TT-4.536-95.53620366.4197595383444.5395013127270.27145683179302162112124WETL