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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 19, 2024

[ Thursday, January 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 20, 2024 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.794
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -81

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.17 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-20 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024111-17441.9500430.9000236.42503109.865265833330.559999999999953.16999999999998.5311.7TT9.95004-81.0499619358.53683515867 39.390744705750.7935251397468216 41151215WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024111-17441.9500430.9000236.42503109.865265833330.559999999999953.16999999999998.5311.7TT9.95004-81.0499619358.53683515867 39.390744705750.7935251397468216 41151215WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:01FORECAST2024111-17435.47427.39231.433108.337360826240.1511811842.7611811848.5311.291181184TT3.474-87.52619357.6060908616838.7421000993430.550928912012031631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2024111-17436.46428.74232.603108.244674251240.1393701542.7493701548.5311.279370154TT4.464-86.53619357.5495132727238.7028305928950.592347582139411631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2024111-17435.5127.80631.658108.434744847570.1881890782.7981890788.5311.328189078TT3.51-87.4919357.6655215105538.783369565770.552447675876441631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.726.5130.605104.739565655020.2614174642.5414174648.5311.071417464TT2.7-91.319355.4001249185437.2244547177090.518131571873391631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2024111-17435.11427.21231.163104.390297112440.2082678292.4882678298.5311.018267829TT3.114-90.88619355.1848976160837.0778569919940.535703859809881631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2024111-17437.32827.93232.63105.02585382410.3996065152.6796065158.5311.209606515TT5.328-88.67219355.5763999265637.3447150019870.62768586856491631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2024111-17438.13828.07633.107109.881434412170.5094490942.7894490948.5311.319449094TT6.138-87.86219358.5466651688139.3976218724480.659872467750921631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2024111-17437.426.56431.982110.614165185340.4870081372.8170081378.5311.347008137TT5.4-88.619358.9917200338939.7095694199980.630587246289331631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:05FORECAST2024111-17438.4827.17632.828110.019179152230.4771656122.6871656128.5311.217165612TT6.48-87.5219358.6303934646239.4562215080190.673135950937771631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024111-17437.09427.06832.081104.852460314180.4149608542.8649608548.5311.394960854TT5.094-91.90619355.4696523789737.2718676189620.61820702850481631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.36625.0730.218104.929222775510.4078742362.7678742368.5311.297874236TT3.366-93.63419355.5169160286337.3041136824310.546368229345311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:01FORECAST2024111-17435.58226.18630.884104.763357162920.3807088672.7707088678.5311.300708867TT3.582-92.41819355.4147788475137.2344454173820.55548287599611631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.81626.52831.172110.11241520560.4968506622.9968506628.5311.526850662TT3.816-93.18419358.6870504822739.4958974315750.565323926977571631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2024111-17435.61826.0630.839110.818417986030.5133861043.0633861048.5311.593386104TT3.618-93.38219359.1156340083439.7966264348550.556999268346311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:05FORECAST2024111-17435.85225.71830.785111.991143576490.5830711813.3030711818.5311.833071181TT3.852-94.14819359.8258482004940.2973082283550.56683450630071631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.84425.26830.056116.486415338460.6122050553.5522050558.712.252205055TT2.844-94.15619362.5287165239942.2296706451330.524249418795341631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.35824.8929.624116.134817678550.6137798593.5137798598.712.213779859TT2.358-93.64219362.3184224146442.0777839287030.503587209103451631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2024111-17434.59225.41230.002117.332656559810.7775594753.8875594758.712.587559475TT2.592-93.40819363.0340926296942.5957545100220.51354030381841631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.3424.78229.561119.818689019560.7090555014.0490555018.712.749055501TT2.34-92.6619364.512486087343.6754082142420.502821414919061631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2024111-17434.05224.65629.354118.999796302350.7543311163.9543311168.6112.564331116TT2.052-92.94819364.0265377672943.3190838429580.490569212891961621151210WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:05FORECAST2024111-17433.85426.20430.029119.033761402330.6645672884.0545672888.612.654567288TT1.854-92.14619364.0467134772243.333849631350.482150285028131621151210WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.91628.86831.892118.582271396280.5685042444.0785042448.6512.728504244TT2.916-90.08419363.7783802952143.1376666202640.527306290229161631151212.5WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.04228.6731.856118.789117706960.4818900244.0718900248.6412.711890024TT3.042-91.95819363.9013530590243.2275206622520.532651839657711631151212.5WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2024111-17434.73628.34631.541117.800796117580.4110238443.7810238448.712.481023844TT2.736-92.26419363.3131997131542.7985841662330.519661490439311631151212.5WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.52829.60632.567121.3619737980.594488514.854488518.6713.52448851TT3.528-88.47219365.4255611470244.3487673770420.553206770977691631151212.5WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:06FORECAST2024111-17434.03427.9530.992124.540843509260.5877955935.4377955938.714.137795593TT2.034-89.96619367.2950785596145.7432389006150.489803625718841621151210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2024111-17433.83629.06631.451125.219254304080.6374019195.3474019198.7114.057401919TT1.836-94.16419367.6921063543246.0421313711860.481385266029251621151210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024111-17436.19430.59633.395129.382080917470.7523626115.4423626118.8814.322362611TT4.194-91.80619370.1134043896147.8860424353790.581133303944321631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2024111-17435.6931.51433.602128.655956108020.728346855.568346858.9114.47834685TT3.69-92.3119369.692896920147.5631931195980.560029528133121631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024111-17436.03230.12833.08128.362076277310.7606303325.1106303328.8413.950630332TT4.032-92.96819369.5224870457447.4326736683470.574372335309661631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:04FORECAST2024111-17436.91432.43234.673127.024354194440.7212602325.1912602328.7513.941260232TT4.914-90.08619368.7451828946146.8396187194960.610866752826871631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024111-17435.25830.90233.08129.6627774990.7200791295.4700791298.8314.300079129TT3.258-96.74219370.2757513620448.0109823621310.541801423838781631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2024111-17437.59833.87235.735128.463012052020.5027561775.5627561778.8414.402756177TT5.598-89.40219369.5810302522947.4774923434960.638527346544071631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024111-17437.43632.1834.808126.215151820060.4614175724.3414175728.8613.201417572TT5.436-89.56419368.2736996632646.4817209143350.632035163899241631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024111-17439.8334.48437.157125.540148718940.4783467154.6683467158.813.468346715TT7.83-79.1719367.8796658721146.1836679642580.723265765364661641151215WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024111-17436.84230.99233.917127.458576461160.5051183834.6251183838.8113.435118383TT4.842-90.15819368.9977840442547.0319322716020.607919366823051631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024111-17439.233.83636.518122.905199544540.1350394433.9950394438.7212.715039443TT7.2-81.819366.3350292891345.0244798749340.700339783463971641151215WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024111-17436.5930.1133.35125.289776381770.141732363.991732368.7812.77173236TT4.59-91.4119367.7333388982546.0732277986840.597555724047021631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:05FORECAST2024111-17435.90629.44432.675123.972480296170.1566929983.4466929988.812.246692998TT3.906-96.09419366.9619270622145.4931802721630.5690985389981631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.79827.80631.802121.418598101190.212598543.032598548.6311.66259854TT3.798-101.20219365.4589945485744.3735187815590.564568278170361631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024111-17438.62433.65636.14116.150820504830.1992127062.5692127068.5711.139212706TT6.624-86.37619362.3279979465242.0846942533630.678657032980791631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:05FORECAST2024111-17440.132.28836.194114.163220338610.5311026492.0411026498.5810.621102649TT8.1-91.919361.135704535541.2284150090260.732821414531561641151215WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2024111-17439.50632.3635.933113.187747569880.5929137061.7829137068.6710.452913706TT7.506-94.49419360.5483460947440.8096551845110.711582636124311641151215WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2024111-17437.34630.41633.881113.57108322790.5854333871.7254333878.6410.365433387TT5.346-101.65419360.7793364171940.9741000431420.628411899868811631151212.5WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024111-17438.9333.06235.996118.911189568380.3645671262.5245671268.8911.414567126TT6.93-96.0719363.9738960240443.2805689480580.690258034783431631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024111-17438.37233.60235.987121.314755399790.1232284132.5632284139.0111.573228413TT6.372-92.62819365.3976777155644.3281298957160.668970053468971631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024111-17440.08235.1537.616117.876753258670.1196851042.519685104911.519685104TT8.082-90.91819363.3584544459242.8315148791730.732189583331271641151215WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2024111-17438.28232.66635.474116.46863106730.1192914032.0492914038.7610.809291403TT6.282-95.71819362.5180840807542.2219849900240.665482403657961631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024111-17436.39230.16433.278121.650492670190.3862206812.0962206818.8310.926220681TT4.392-104.60819365.5958648246944.4749170741070.589364094339641631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024111-17435.83429.26432.549118.300950541890.3862206812.1262206818.6810.806220681TT3.834-105.16619363.6110277440543.0155302096360.566079337256551631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024111-17433.15223.66628.409122.201185542741.3657487692.3457487698.3510.695748769TT1.152-105.84819365.9205753837244.7159281263740.452390953851161621151210WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:05FORECAST2024111-17433.45826.36629.912128.20393409141.1685045683.7685045688.5212.288504568TT1.458-118.54219369.4307336766347.3624734316160.465340025082171621151210WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024111-17434.32224.40429.363132.752404856811.1074809133.7774809138.612.377480913TT2.322-131.67819372.0550766949549.391206170440.502055610338071631151212.5WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:05FORECAST2024111-17440.31629.42634.871129.455083997421.0606304943.6006304948.9312.530630494TT8.316-105.68419370.1556384463547.918529267190.740344306670491641151215WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2024111-17438.80423.12630.965124.076013234530.8968508782.2368508788.7911.026850878TT6.804-122.19619367.0226497086945.5387071426270.685503187583871631151212.5WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:07FORECAST2024111-17436.17624.69230.434124.951198003430.7594492292.4094492299.0711.479449229TT4.176-110.82419367.5353129450245.9239776610450.580383228907391631151212.5WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024111-17437.50827.66232.585121.3965782190500.9110.0410.95TT5.508-87.49219365.445993643244.3638931521460.63492536201675163113127.5WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2024111-17434.71825.71830.218113.5954760162700.7111.7312.44TT2.718-97.28219360.7940274088640.9845692873350.51889656594646163113127.5WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024111-17435.07825.71830.398115.895773931590.1862205731.35622057311.4312.786220573TT3.078-94.92219362.1753406518141.974591403780.534178100998121631141210WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024111-17427.51815.20621.362142.88222471580.3712600433.84126004312.3616.201260043TT-4.482-92.48219377.7918885706953.9797455185640.23560884062986161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:06FORECAST2024111-17427.71623.0925.403127.3860864361801.0611.7712.83TT-4.284-88.28419368.9556336204246.9998142354850.24215766973633161114126WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:06FORECAST2024111-17427.71623.0925.403127.8175351286601.1211.5712.69TT-4.284-93.28419369.2063916737147.1910509374810.24215766973633161114126WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024111-17428.50827.4127.959120.7438894880100.8310.9811.81TT-3.492-87.49219365.0603049480144.0788011171020.2693098516322162113126WETL