MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 18, 2024

[ Wednesday, January 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, January 19, 2024 ]

DAY 110 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.367
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -88

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 108 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.51 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-19 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024110-17530.4899820.6299425.55996108.027999166671.582.818.3311.14TT-1.51002-87.5100218356.50162571094 38.5121573252170.3667548870975516 21151210WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024110-17530.4899820.6299425.55996108.027999166671.582.818.3311.14TT-1.51002-87.5100218356.50162571094 38.5121573252170.3667548870975516 21151210WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:01FORECAST2024110-17527.3022325.151108.585347525921.248032172.478032178.3310.80803217TT-4.698-90.69818356.8431231200838.747934536230.23919577879225161115127.5WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:04FORECAST2024110-17526.8722.38824.629109.216268637341.2972447952.5272447958.3310.857244795TT-5.13-91.1318357.2291169488739.0152312017670.22397839668623161115127.5WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2024110-17526.85221.97424.413108.840013345571.1842526082.4142526088.3310.744252608TT-5.148-91.14818356.9990006255838.8557759924420.22335648554703161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:02FORECAST2024110-17526.4221.23623.828103.701867349861.1409454982.6509454988.3310.980945498TT-5.58-93.5818353.8344226183836.6932903581840.20872768900021161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2024110-17526.36619.65223.009103.515628404291.0507879692.5607879698.3310.890787969TT-5.634-93.63418353.718940836336.6154384391680.20693957229607161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:01FORECAST2024110-17527.03219.18423.108103.523351386531.0842525542.5942525548.3310.924252554TT-4.968-92.96818353.7237307365136.618666070790.22961959888894161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2024110-17526.20418.9522.577108.516907076311.1913392262.7013392268.3311.031339226TT-5.796-93.79618356.8012144532838.7189642335420.20162978678033161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2024110-17525.93418.66222.298109.078482299451.228347122.748347128.3311.07834712TT-6.066-94.06618357.1448728625538.9568206928760.19296328562859161115127.5WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:05FORECAST2024110-17525.01618.21221.614109.966594064941.295276292.915276298.3311.24527629TT-6.984-94.98418357.6873571144439.3336604019650.1652340954905161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024110-17525.91618.9522.433114.170022071681.2484258713.3084258718.3311.638425871TT-6.084-94.08418360.2383945800841.1284254602750.19239370563666161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024110-17526.7820.01223.396113.720458084481.2645676123.2745676128.3311.604567612TT-5.22-93.2218359.966855564140.9355957099790.22087867271165161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2024110-17526.31220.73223.522114.362971356561.2614180043.4814180048.3311.811418004TT-5.688-92.68818360.3548419003441.2112504624450.20516053474476161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024110-17526.81620.69623.756116.997709388941.4027566633.7127566638.3312.042756663TT-5.184-92.18418361.9392423240642.3460622898840.22211561055329161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2024110-17526.88821.45224.17116.031362884621.3011818053.4811818058.3311.811181805TT-5.112-92.11218361.3593605219441.9290190924750.22460128874529161115127.5WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:05FORECAST2024110-17528.36422.62225.493116.447507564871.4413393613.6613393618.3311.991339361TT-3.636-90.63618361.6092536563242.1084963006710.27888772700331621151210WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:01FORECAST2024110-17528.27422.96425.619116.46590276011.4862212753.8262212758.3312.156221275TT-3.726-89.72618361.62029379942.1164339736730.275403808809181621151210WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17528.25622.49625.376116.984602122631.527559883.897559888.3312.22755988TT-3.744-91.74418361.9313864800442.340399243060.274709600438371621151210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2024110-17528.4923.5426.015116.269885277431.366142473.736142478.3312.06614247TT-3.51-91.5118361.5026245274242.0318686812920.283800907759191621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2024110-17530.05624.15227.104119.230041580431.885827794.595827798.3312.92582779TT-1.944-88.94418363.2733830780843.3131005694630.348042120803661621151210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:06FORECAST2024110-17529.85824.00826.933122.203274254462.1740169225.2240169228.3313.554016922TT-2.142-89.14218365.0386119644544.6089136113590.339622710670281621151210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2024110-17528.70623.79226.249122.685669213512.2728358735.0928358738.3313.422835873TT-3.294-93.29418365.3237583819844.8199897766890.292318538721061621151210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024110-17530.34424.15227.248126.513259712952.3653556085.2353556088.3313.565355608TT-1.656-92.65618367.5739272939946.5029757274530.360422362559241621151210WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2024110-17531.40623.75627.581127.586237329712.5063005665.4163005668.3313.746300566TT-0.594-92.59418368.2007948753346.977353999950.40725760763021621151210WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024110-17529.76821.12825.448125.453204135232.1055129484.8555129488.3313.185512948TT-2.232-94.23218366.9529292050246.0354207355790.335821680518521621151210WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:04FORECAST2024110-17532.05424.54828.301124.618053874082.1807098394.8907098398.3313.220709839TT0.054000000000002-91.94618366.4625054389845.6678442456260.436549792335851621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024110-17530.84822.83826.843126.892227597222.251969725.251969728.3313.58196972TT-1.152-97.15218367.7955275316246.6703937887820.382436625327111621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2024110-17533.18827.0530.119127.228570716262.2618122455.5718122458.3313.901812245TT1.188-91.81218367.9920244870446.8190993104710.488560553215211621151210WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024110-17532.32426.31229.318125.177200397121.4346464444.4146464448.3312.744646444TT0.324-91.67618366.7909671126345.9138663941110.448868104062281621151210WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17536.12228.1332.126124.586544420831.4862212754.6562212758.3312.986221275TT4.122-83.87818366.4439818266845.6539894195970.621861378012491631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024110-17534.14225.37629.759125.853900371151.4535440924.6035440928.3312.933544092TT2.142-91.85818367.1878602718246.2120243841430.532503755688781631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2024110-17536.15827.82431.991123.061274430272.0618121374.2518121378.3312.581812137TT4.158-85.84218365.5455389697844.9844998879210.623441976560591631151212.5WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024110-17529.8422.92826.384124.904805902442.0933082174.3033082178.3312.633308217TT-2.16-93.1618366.6310116001345.7939753417280.338861184013411621151210WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:05FORECAST2024110-17529.40821.8325.619123.385244295811.9456703423.7556703428.3312.085670342TT-2.592-96.59218365.7366609659245.1265072612150.320787967388481621151210WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024110-17527.35620.26423.81120.451255249931.2767723433.1167723438.3311.446772343TT-4.644-101.64418364.0000397423743.8442616979940.24113682703617161115127.5WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17533.18824.1728.679116.174898906671.1700793722.6300793728.3110.940079372TT1.188-89.81218361.4455831436141.9909040819710.488560553215211621151210WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024110-17531.78423.77427.779112.289234159130.791339011.811339018.2810.09133901TT-0.216-97.21618359.1003210113440.323100032660.424292705306241621151210WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024110-17531.96421.77626.87110.997123251140.7669295481.5769295488.289.856929548TT-0.036000000000001-99.03618358.3153021130839.7719677514130.432456719165641621151210WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:05FORECAST2024110-17529.94821.18225.565110.992247373030.744094891.514094898.279.78409489TT-2.052-104.05218358.3123349028139.7698913123410.343440112353841621151210WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024110-17532.921.05626.978117.705034178280.9901580152.7801580158.2711.050158015TT0.9-100.118362.3627900049742.6519245824720.475297564277541621151210WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024110-17533.3521.09227.221121.870321799790.7051184913.0951184918.3511.445118491TT1.35-95.6518364.8415979712144.4633629507020.496027491044621621151210WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17535.36621.63228.499118.650177258670.6720476073.0520476078.3511.402047607TT3.366-95.63418362.927557390643.0614190164510.588236079070231631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2024110-17533.87222.31628.094116.263297517450.6511814542.3411814548.3510.691181454TT1.872-99.12818361.4986688782342.0290272919520.520083908587681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024110-17532.97218.62625.799119.73069503750.4625986752.1825986758.3610.542598675TT0.972-106.02818363.5715586812143.5306754167680.478611321692871621151210WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024110-17531.98220.19226.087118.323291833360.476378212.226378218.1910.41637821TT-0.018000000000001-106.01818362.7323813457842.9196894153850.433274768763571621151210WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024110-17527.3220.6623.99112.551425583260.1287402270.9987402278.339.328740227TT-4.68-103.6818359.2593005868540.4351464350940.2398418461012161114126WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024110-17527.73421.81224.773119.314092612751.5673236812.8373236818.2811.117323681TT-4.266-117.26618363.3234680793543.3496099188070.254960440740981621151210WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17527.64420.6624.152123.771868247161.6334654492.9334654498.3411.273465449TT-4.356-131.35618365.9645392215945.2961147316680.251631980734211621151210WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:05FORECAST2024110-17529.89424.72827.311122.727315003731.4980323052.8080323058.6611.468032305TT-2.106-111.10618365.3483590670944.8382231493220.341147725884051621151210WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2024110-17526.81620.323.558116.896969703450.5263782371.4163782378.7110.126378237TT-5.184-126.18418361.8788572429742.3025418114510.22211561055329161114126WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:06FORECAST2024110-17530.00223.68426.843119.560077538090.7129925111.7729925118.9510.722992511TT-1.998-111.99818363.4699861205843.4564997233430.345738269010971621151210WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024110-17536.35630.21833.287121.606268619050.1826772640.91267726410.0410.952677264TT4.356-89.64418364.6852344175644.3480105779850.63209768084589163113127.5WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2024110-17534.8829.6632.27113.661699216270.015748040.7057480411.7312.43574804TT2.88-97.1218359.9313419810240.9104079307530.56625515830664163113127.5WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024110-17534.77229.6632.216114.637739368430.3692915381.32929153811.2712.599291538TT2.772-95.22818360.520569381641.3292630697250.561340029499521631141210WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024110-17532.920.15626.528139.242451944281.9893711534.09937115311.7315.829371153TT0.9-85.118374.9017633399852.2022407656950.475297564277541621151210WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:06FORECAST2024110-17534.86223.66629.264127.3860864361801.7611.0712.83TT2.862-81.13818368.0839899540946.8887789600640.565436660028541631151212.5WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:06FORECAST2024110-17534.86222.31628.589127.8175351286601.8610.8312.69TT2.862-86.13818368.3357027007547.0797616190940.565436660028541631151212.5WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024110-17536.26629.58832.927120.743889488010.1940945930.83409459310.9811.814094593TT4.266-80.73418364.1738308727943.971764789330.62817127738675163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:04FORECAST2024110-17535.63634.4335.033125.555399087430.5287404431.25874044311.6612.918740443TT3.636-78.36418367.0128695523246.0804473068630.600333704570411631141210WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024110-17535.65433.27834.466122.629583276210.570866451.3908664511.7313.12086645TT3.654-60.34618365.2906236103544.7954369480430.601136937064391631141210WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024110-17530.57827.06828.823125.466845083350.1003937550.75039375512.0712.820393755TT-1.422-62.42218366.9609309224146.0414302716830.37059086296114162113126WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2024110-17523.84622.87423.36139.894061234610.1838583672.00385836711.8613.863858367TT-8.154-75.15418375.2705396929652.4981198593510.13382449604911161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024110-17532.52230.50631.514140.915534047080.1838583671.99385836711.9413.933858367TT0.522-70.47818375.8474122596452.962738818780.457933654239511621151210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:08FORECAST2024110-17541.68441.3641.522135.205399772440.291338741.6913387411.513.19133874TT9.684-69.31618372.6033503769350.3779849442620.829766418252411641151215WETL