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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 17, 2024

[ Tuesday, January 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 18, 2024 ]

DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.376
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-18 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024109-17631.0499620.3799225.71494104.338702083331.031.238.379.6TT-0.95004-82.9500417353.30118252357 36.8629868290160.3755446374050916 2114128WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024109-17631.0499620.3799225.71494104.338702083331.031.238.379.6TT-0.95004-82.9500417353.30118252357 36.8629868290160.3755446374050916 2114128WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2024109-17628.70618.7723.738103.473878725921.3122054331.5122054338.379.882205433TT-3.294-85.29417352.763293645536.5017862656310.278972026872391621151210WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2024109-17628.90418.80623.855103.849132297031.318898351.518898358.379.88889835TT-3.096-85.09617352.9968329276836.6584148031380.286649511037791621151210WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:04FORECAST2024109-17628.90418.42823.666104.314708737361.4228354141.6228354148.379.992835414TT-3.096-85.09617353.2862754594436.8529549254580.286649511037791621151210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:01FORECAST2024109-17628.59820.08424.341108.3004342081.69291432.06291438.3710.4329143TT-3.402-85.40217355.7501888101938.527899917720.274826844333321621151210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:01FORECAST2024109-17629.37220.71425.043107.941683906151.6397646652.0097646658.3710.379764665TT-2.628-84.62817355.5294350998838.3764459028850.305183460333521621151210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2024109-17630.220.73225.466108.666085465631.8535443082.2235443088.3710.593544308TT-1.8-83.817355.9749820580138.682407823940.339204920329811621151210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024109-17629.60620.28224.944110.56260472571.9389774252.3089774258.3710.678977425TT-2.394-84.39417357.1375708805839.4860600819660.314645356410241621151210WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2024109-17629.71421.75825.736110.082359803851.9011821292.1811821298.3710.551182129TT-2.286-84.28617356.8437043523339.2821970562530.319054259322971621151210WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:05FORECAST2024109-17629.78623.23426.51110.077135138531.9500010532.2200010538.3710.590001053TT-2.214-84.21417356.8405053573939.2799805311280.322007853579991621151210WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:01FORECAST2024109-17630.14623.64826.897109.901928668432.0208672332.3408672338.3710.710867233TT-1.854-82.85417356.7332041181539.2056671526530.336941770553821621151210WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17629.4823.21626.348110.224699383012.0622058382.3722058388.3710.742205838TT-2.52-84.5217356.9308407028939.3425946170.309534847594611621151210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2024109-17629.49823.19826.348110.209297292251.9968514722.3668514728.3710.736851472TT-2.502-84.50217356.9214134891839.3360581691970.310262702068031621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2024109-17630.1124.3527.23111.40697657842.3724422262.7124422268.3711.082442226TT-1.89-83.8917357.6533818184239.8450819314290.335436268484771621151210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2024109-17630.07424.45827.266112.914403497782.6818912123.0518912128.3711.421891212TT-1.926-83.92617358.5714947494540.487886440940.333933402509931621151210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2024109-17629.04823.6326.339112.587245748272.4429147052.8229147058.3711.192914705TT-2.952-86.95217358.3725347340.3481766370750.292295262951841621151210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2024109-17629.67823.75626.717115.904905235982.3161429832.8661429838.3711.236142983TT-2.322-88.32217360.3825171622841.7701015003980.317581740451281621151210WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2024109-17628.88622.89225.889116.39859288512.3342532292.9142532298.3711.284253229TT-3.114-89.11417360.6801694974641.9826642110620.285947440218561621151210WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024109-17629.28220.85825.07115.760473244782.2374027832.7474027838.3711.117402783TT-2.718-88.71817360.2953661648741.7079620951480.301578167642091621151210WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:04FORECAST2024109-17629.26424.85427.059115.40030472192.2866154082.7066154088.3711.076615408TT-2.736-88.73617360.0778993242641.553099305640.300859412252331621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024109-17628.5823.2725.925116.698017028112.5035446593.0035446598.3711.373544659TT-3.42-93.4217360.8605154437642.1117065760280.274138940214831621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2024109-17630.05625.66427.86117.694473942452.79527713.30527718.3711.6752771TT-1.944-89.94417361.4597039194442.5418097041920.333182964590231621151210WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024109-17629.01224.83626.924118.623425661632.4452769112.9752769118.3711.345276911TT-2.988-88.98817362.0169359695942.9436890922410.290878989680021621151210WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17630.43426.79828.616118.728766041232.7019699633.1719699638.3711.541969963TT-1.566-84.56617362.0800414760442.9893165326080.349078138458161621151210WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024109-17628.70624.38626.546119.519099561272.669292783.149292788.3711.51929278TT-3.294-91.29417362.5529627365143.3320036495370.278972026872391621151210WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2024109-17628.90424.99826.951114.793278728461.795276562.185276568.3710.55527656TT-3.096-87.09617359.7109314327841.2923972136380.286649511037791621151210WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024109-17629.42626.40227.914114.61060915611.7625993772.2125993778.3710.582599377TT-2.574-87.57417359.6003906563241.2140198258930.30735576734531621151210WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:05FORECAST2024109-17629.17421.32625.25113.406993629141.3448826161.8148826168.3710.184882616TT-2.826-90.82617358.8707502832940.698452891060.297277273374881621151210WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024109-17628.05819.36423.711113.117873620481.5385835081.8385835088.3710.208583508TT-3.942-93.94217358.6951511418540.5748327751410.25456704073231621151210WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17630.23624.18827.212110.455447026431.1976384421.4576384428.359.807638442TT-1.764-87.76417357.072031109839.4405508168670.34071692041925162114128WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024109-17628.41823.926.159108.216423905520.7236224381.0236224388.329.343622438TT-3.582-93.58217355.6985118764538.4924209437840.2679863030107162114128WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024109-17628.43622.11825.277107.020821365880.4185041630.8085041638.329.128504163TT-3.564-95.56417354.9618690585837.9883107802180.2686664852191162113126WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:05FORECAST2024109-17625.719.72422.712106.828395603380.4019687210.7719687218.319.081968721TT-6.3-99.317354.8431012464637.9073191970880.17603755182993161113124.5WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024109-17626.49220.19223.342112.583972639341.1657486611.7857486618.3110.095748661TT-5.508-97.50817358.3705433630340.3467794487290.20052644961098161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024109-17627.5921.1124.35117.974229169951.7267725862.3867725868.3910.776772586TT-4.41-94.4117361.6276535800942.6627436776470.23766224201615161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17630.03821.63225.835117.348638694611.7287410912.3787410918.3910.768741091TT-1.962-95.96217361.2519184246642.3924208529490.332433193517021621151210WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2024109-17631.02822.0126.519112.918205519041.2811030541.6911030548.3910.081103054TT-0.972-97.97217358.5738059657440.4895107157830.374590055189221621151210WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024109-17628.1318.44623.288117.074741026461.2531502831.7231502838.410.123150283TT-3.87-103.8717361.0872250541142.2741933611730.257222489523841621151210WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2024109-17629.3919.9424.665116.098464168511.2622054061.7522054068.239.982205406TT-2.61-102.6117360.4992614831641.8534105920760.305906806263151621151210WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024109-17630.45221.1125.781111.594278587690.8484256550.8684256558.379.238425655TT-1.548-95.54817357.7676512673339.9248229451910.34984196767571162113126WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024109-17631.38821.6526.519107.715804144671.0259848061.2659848068.329.585984806TT-0.612-109.61217355.3903388238338.2811561316530.39033179618742162114128WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17630.86616.82623.846111.482210470851.0370084341.2970084348.389.677008434TT-1.134-124.13417357.6992871402739.8771072142440.36757212960811162114128WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024109-17634.28618.64426.465112.516961803581.0370084341.3070084348.710.007008434TT2.286-105.71417358.3297701777240.3181770641730.52142763303561631141210WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2024109-17631.3719.41825.394112.662431144460.8055122460.8855122468.759.635512246TT-0.63-117.6317358.4182731396440.380274018510.38954018377147162113126WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:06FORECAST2024109-17632.68422.22627.455114.514508650250.9362209781.0562209788.9910.046220978TT0.684-107.31617359.5422157454741.1728001751160.44832412365576162114128WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024109-17634.75423.61229.183120.710491962250.7295279530.72952795310.0810.809527953TT2.754-91.24617363.2640785333843.8497856319770.54275731763775163113127.5WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2024109-17632.34220.80426.573113.76857992270.6901578530.69015785311.7712.460157853TT0.342-96.65817359.0901809412740.8531799498750.4328592801628162113126WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17632.91825.89829.408112.367032063040.8039374420.96393744211.3112.273937442TT0.918-95.08217358.2385192995740.254199184350.45895223817785162113126WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024109-17627.71620.85824.287122.716209861451.4755913482.10559134811.7713.875591348TT-4.284-83.28417364.4563970147544.7247077014110.24215213982705161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:06FORECAST2024109-17630.88424.87227.878127.410194436181.0606304941.76063049411.1112.870630494TT-1.116-81.11617367.223153512946.7879733905450.368349768843781621151210WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:06FORECAST2024109-17630.6524.29627.473127.841643128661.1153549331.85535493310.8712.725354933TT-1.35-86.3517367.4758091160146.9787112474240.358283595405381621151210WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024109-17632.82828.36430.596119.587634040860.6358271150.63582711511.0211.655827115TT0.828-82.17217362.5939278131443.3617499447570.45486060657978162113126WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024109-17636.3231.20833.764123.013610011540.7326775610.73267756111.712.432677561TT4.32-78.6817364.632672880244.854781419150.61290173613729163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024109-17636.530.43433.467120.26523264820.818898080.8188980811.7712.58889808TT4.5-61.517362.9985648924243.6561068577490.6207774013258163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024109-17634.48428.09431.289124.465496623610.4622049740.65220497412.1112.762204974TT2.484-57.51617365.4913300141845.4910599018380.53046278833822163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024109-17634.21422.62228.418137.808867136881.2724416321.82244163211.913.722441632TT2.214-63.78617373.2361759684751.4352545847160.518139144093931631151212.5WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:07FORECAST2024109-17633.22428.97631.1139.392738845231.2842526621.81425266211.9813.794252662TT1.224-67.77617374.1381905680652.1521470898790.472893759965721621151210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024109-17641.01825.55633.287135.309506972441.3972448491.39724484911.5412.937244849TT9.018-75.98217371.8053890249350.3088038786580.795449313201831641141212WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:05FORECAST2024109-17632.88225.66429.273118.346030852560.1937008920.1937008921010.193700892TT0.882-99.11817361.8506782520342.8235915324370.45731503905277162112124WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:04FORECAST2024109-17632.59425.01628.805118.551684826580.1767717490.17677174910.0210.196771749TT0.594-97.40617361.9739490352442.9126215214580.44424581970132162112124WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:06FORECAST2024109-17624.87219.9422.406140.105947544690.6374019191.54740191910.6312.177401919TT-7.128-130.12817374.5431793560652.475727040080.15255194241754161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:04FORECAST2024109-17628.16624.45826.312136.485773259440.8574807781.59748077810.4212.017480778TT-3.834-135.83417372.4798874882950.8382054674270.258555586046061621151210WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024109-17628.16624.45826.312128.61261729660.8574807781.5174807789.6511.167480778TT-3.834-139.83417367.9266013755347.320003175950.258555586046061621151210WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024109-1768.7988.6728.735130.198722166490.0362204920.33622049210.7411.076220492TT-23.202-175.20217368.8512328863648.0239591913370.0020096906596105161112123WETL