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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 16, 2024

[ Monday, January 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 17, 2024 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.417
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -77

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 34.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-17 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024108-17731.8599624.3100428.08599.37972250.199999999999930.199999999999938.849.0399999999999TT-0.14004-77.1400416349.25772998504 34.7091362868930.4165333401299816 2112124WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024108-17731.8599624.3100428.08599.37972250.199999999999930.199999999999938.849.0399999999999TT-0.14004-77.1400416349.25772998504 34.7091362868930.4165333401299816 2112124WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:01FORECAST2024108-17732.19822.89227.545103.31759487160.3665356310.3665356318.849.206535631TT0.198-76.80216351.7323024501736.3401355278020.43333290787992162112124WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2024108-17731.62221.72226.672102.95025905720.2818899160.2818899168.849.121889916TT-0.378-77.37816351.5025126885236.1872747405390.4047963260673162112124WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2024108-17731.96421.23626.6102.913891416260.2673229790.2673229798.849.107322979TT-0.036000000000001-77.03616351.4797509630636.1721489256260.42168908673255162112124WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:01FORECAST2024108-17732.6321.39827.014102.170393498870.3169293050.3169293058.849.156929305TT0.63-76.3716351.0139504002935.8632334359910.45497452814808162112124WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2024108-17732.3621.79427.077102.172468343290.3145670990.3145670998.849.154567099TT0.36-76.6416351.0152515122235.8640946731440.44142868377699162112124WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:01FORECAST2024108-17732.32421.88427.104102.389874520970.3748033520.3748033528.849.214803352TT0.324-76.67616351.1515465214435.9543627861760.4396273834985162112124WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2024108-17731.83821.16426.501102.237487647560.3397639630.3397639638.849.179763963TT-0.162-77.16216351.0560209230535.8910856027210.41544690408512162112124WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2024108-17731.51421.30826.411102.48952103090.3677167340.3677167348.849.207716734TT-0.486-77.48616351.213991179135.9957537352960.39949684011052162112124WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2024108-17730.77621.4726.123102.591698321520.3814962690.3814962698.849.221496269TT-1.224-79.22416351.2780053702936.0382071539330.36382475493653162112124WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2024108-17730.95620.44425.7106.146208543180.5523625030.5523625038.849.392362503TT-1.044-81.04416353.4945999184237.5221115218280.37243028015184162113126WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:01FORECAST2024108-17730.61421.5626.087106.327118971370.5751971610.5751971618.849.415197161TT-1.386-81.38616353.6068814524437.5980009532890.3561379103819162113126WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2024108-17730.30821.48825.898106.04263244330.5090553930.5090553938.849.349055393TT-1.692-80.69216353.4302924820437.47867860.34177878776889162113126WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2024108-17730.59621.52426.06105.642178215590.4236222760.4236222768.849.263622276TT-1.404-81.40416353.1815026978337.3108632504530.35528734576462162112124WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024108-17728.86820.4824.674105.717025241190.5015750740.5015750748.849.341575074TT-3.132-85.13216353.2280220629137.342215724320.27750646387581162113126WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2024108-17730.57821.18225.88105.668835661220.5051183830.5051183838.849.345118383TT-1.422-83.42216353.1980720047737.3220290265310.35443750108078162113126WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:03FORECAST2024108-17730.45220.98425.718107.236333954120.5259845360.5259845368.849.365984536TT-1.548-80.54816354.1704025099737.9799355602260.34850906512712162113126WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17730.72221.03825.88106.915101567870.4704726950.4704726958.849.310472695TT-1.278-78.27816353.9714550032537.8448940637980.36125620195592162112124WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2024108-17729.4819.43624.458106.983576466370.4783467150.4783467158.849.318346715TT-2.52-82.5216354.013876889237.8736706683340.30410289452244162112124WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2024108-17730.59620.98425.79106.631247216480.3937010.3937018.849.233701TT-1.404-79.40416353.7955215332637.7256577206950.35528734576462162112124WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:07FORECAST2024108-17730.93819.83225.385106.80905634770.4535435520.4535435528.849.293543552TT-1.062-80.06216353.905742814837.8003384260790.37156677480325162112124WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2024108-17730.52420.17425.349107.053242100280.4732286020.4732286028.849.313228602TT-1.476-83.47616354.0570288938737.902952831480.3518923246791162112124WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024108-17729.13819.41824.278104.93052243010.303149770.303149778.849.14314977TT-2.862-84.86216352.738748106137.0130611201130.28909973605552162112124WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17730.77620.76825.772104.562822363670.2606300620.2606300628.829.080630062TT-1.224-81.22416352.5096707945836.8594060887710.36382475493653162112124WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024108-17729.71425.93427.824104.515835342550.2996064610.2996064618.799.089606461TT-2.286-85.28616352.48038243936.8397816124750.31456368340411162112124WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024108-17730.14624.83627.491104.951985033990.3854332790.3854332798.799.175433279TT-1.854-86.85416352.7521127108637.0220344539390.33426695034365162112124WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:05FORECAST2024108-17729.1223.91826.519104.554944890520.366141930.366141938.789.14614193TT-2.88-87.8816352.504760783936.8561158374050.28831982082475162112124WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024108-17728.14820.67824.413106.039432877430.6196853740.6196853748.789.399685374TT-3.852-86.85216353.4283056937637.4773370985950.24774636836392161113124.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:03FORECAST2024108-17729.64221.09225.367107.645723389610.6555121650.6555121658.869.515512165TT-2.358-85.35816354.4237128036138.1521969511750.31132857941035162113126WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17729.80423.4526.627107.437271340320.6527562580.6527562588.869.512756258TT-2.196-89.19616354.2947657171438.0644628788080.31862763195889162113126WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024108-17730.219.0424.62106.219391665780.4098427410.4098427418.869.269842741TT-1.8-91.816353.5400270260937.5528066002130.33676371783926162112124WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024108-17728.77820.15624.467110.026340657920.4716537980.4716537988.879.341653798TT-3.222-95.22216355.8915151896139.1574410875150.27369310462574162112124WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2024108-17728.50820.31824.413109.059696156250.4940947550.4940947558.79.194094755TT-3.492-95.49216355.2965872571838.7485378516210.26241069354654162113126WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:07FORECAST2024108-17729.13822.94626.042107.083040762160.0153543390.0153543398.848.855354339TT-2.862-88.86216354.0754843288237.9154795212650.28909973605552162111122WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024108-17729.13818.71623.927101.710837325650.2437009190.2437009198.799.033700919TT-2.862-103.86216350.725598799835.6725943254680.28909973605552162112124WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17721.63215.42218.527102.92834513280.263779670.263779678.859.11377967TT-10.368-118.36816351.4887974856136.1781602579120.065645761309165161112123WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024108-17723.12616.71819.922104.469354520050.267716680.267716689.179.43771668TT-8.874-102.87416352.4514061721136.8203709024860.093568143326831161112123WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2024108-17724.6216.26820.444106.686478845780.0763779940.0763779949.229.296377994TT-7.38-112.3816353.8297641429737.7488516472470.12938028369336161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:06FORECAST2024108-17726.0616.84421.452109.059399449630.1161417950.1161417959.469.576141795TT-5.94-102.9416355.2964044227438.7484124929550.17193994022097161112123WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024108-17728.18416.10622.145116.976718252540010.5510.55TT-3.816-88.81616360.1264315716242.1264081212450.24919287582892162111122WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2024108-17728.25616.84422.55109.541320372390012.2412.24TT-3.744-91.74416355.5931887434938.952147410390.25209929241573162111122WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17733.78216.8825.331107.45668257660.1649607190.16496071911.7811.944960719TT1.782-91.21816354.3067762651138.0726307918580.5131666590405163112125WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024108-17732.84620.53426.69111.810533742240.6295278990.62952789912.2412.869527899TT0.846-74.15416356.9857800514239.9147706059380.46584980265406162113126WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024108-17733.06221.50627.284120.428060183190.6992129760.75921297611.5212.279212976TT1.062-74.93816362.2017420037643.6192531844840.47675064028716162113126WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:05FORECAST2024108-17732.37820.31826.348120.364716092450.7358271690.78582716911.2912.075827169TT0.378-79.62216362.1638165195743.5917449543350.44232979079185162113126WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2024108-17734.26817.11425.691115.5514592642100.1111.3811.49TT2.268-77.73216359.2640937683241.5134902961630.53770406532862163112125WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024108-17735.11416.21425.664119.7049378047700.411.7712.17TT3.114-77.88616361.7684299270843.3054674041520.58002318706273163112125WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024108-17734.95223.41429.183117.8070832942500.2711.9712.24TT2.952-61.04816360.627397787242.4844618893040.57197541613058163112125WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024108-17733.85426.34830.101121.403968670410.1897638820.7697638821212.769763882TT1.854-55.14616362.785269102544.0435714442050.51680723391909163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024108-17733.92626.29430.11128.814533647780.5496065960.97960659611.9412.919606596TT1.926-61.07416367.1694045287847.2967556141090.52044640803981163113127.5WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024108-17733.6226.3329.975130.527934837070.5346459581.05464595811.9312.984645958TT1.62-64.3816368.1713712030748.056648749270.504971814762681631141210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024108-17732.82823.79228.31127.7401370932900.4711.5412.01TT0.828-80.17216366.5388883528446.8217278482150.46494244154999162112124WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024108-17731.98221.70426.843116.6722643015900.1510.3210.47TT-0.018000000000001-95.01816359.942487057541.9953049833450.42258247409502162112124WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:04FORECAST2024108-17731.3719.92225.646117.0276307990800.110.3910.49TT-0.63-92.6316360.1571779545342.1483412513030.39245971668465162112124WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:05FORECAST2024108-17729.3915.40422.397132.591342096610.9066934030.90669340311.112.006693403TT-2.61-117.6116369.3722417899348.9755612721620.30012116823752162113126WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:04FORECAST2024108-17732.3248.79820.561127.795212456520.7437011890.74370118910.8911.633701189TT0.324-126.67616366.5712515241646.8460509689820.4396273834985162113126WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024108-17732.3247.75420.039119.922056493680.6625987830.66259878310.1210.782598783TT0.324-130.67616361.8986162114643.3996262982960.4396273834985162113126WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024108-17710.868-3.2443.812129.458043080370.3019686670.41196866711.111.511968667TT-21.132-147.13216367.5462288615847.5818155299910.0019755323428354161112123WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:05FORECAST2024108-17725.524.53215.026101.6694933564700.29.239.43TT-6.48-130.4816350.6996407429435.655454794630.15503731600704161112123WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:04FORECAST2024108-17725.52-0.18412.668102.4447844567600.239.499.72TT-6.48-122.4816351.1859584336535.9771698159770.15503731600704161112123WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:05FORECAST2024108-17725.5744.78415.179113.37667832670.3940947010.64409470110.1310.774094701TT-6.426-97.42616357.9422349102240.5823016269580.15667657611774161113124.5WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024108-17727.1425.98826.564115.2512032417400.2510.7110.96TT-4.86-72.8616359.0820286063541.3846358593680.20911929067711161112123WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024108-17727.1425.98826.564113.4061885529300.2110.510.71TT-4.86-76.8616357.9602205042940.5949042609570.20911929067711161112123WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:07FORECAST2024108-17725.3424.83625.088123.519711212050.1578741011.18787410110.0711.257874101TT-6.66-97.6616364.0453834367844.9667806301910.14965496754191161114126WETL