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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 15, 2024

[ Sunday, January 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 16, 2024 ]

DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 10.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.203
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -65

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 102 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.68 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-16 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024107-17825.8499410.3899218.11993101.95025541667008.848.84TT-6.15006-65.1500615349.93538779669 35.6760021652030.2031382476077416 1111121.5WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024107-17825.8499410.3899218.11993101.95025541667008.848.84TT-6.15006-65.1500615349.93538779669 35.6760021652030.2031382476077416 1111121.5WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2024107-17826.20413.96420.084101008.848.84TT-5.796-64.79615349.3361654531135.2829527107640.21472935293946161111121.5WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2024107-17826.04214.68420.363101.13332791667008.848.84TT-5.958-64.95815349.4203280668235.3380406191310.20937892924346161111121.5WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2024107-17825.01615.74620.381101.13332791667008.848.84TT-6.984-65.98415349.4203280668235.3380406191310.17735179391201161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:01FORECAST2024107-17824.74614.37819.562104008.848.84TT-7.254-68.25415351.2230238120836.5271944764560.16946561065035161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:01FORECAST2024107-17824.54813.31618.932104008.848.84TT-7.452-68.45215351.2230238120836.5271944764560.16382736989132161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:01FORECAST2024107-17825.59213.98219.787104008.848.84TT-6.408-67.40815351.2230238120836.5271944764560.19493354549986161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2024107-17824.54814.86419.706104008.848.84TT-7.452-68.45215351.2230238120836.5271944764560.16382736989132161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024107-17823.84614.5419.193103.68581625008.848.84TT-8.154-70.15415351.0260904240336.3964267106620.14482749988118161111121.5WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2024107-17823.73813.6418.689103.68581625008.848.84TT-8.262-70.26215351.0260904240336.3964267106620.14204140073857161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:03FORECAST2024107-17823.59414.30618.95105008.848.84TT-8.406-67.40615351.848788274336.9441227688010.13838322327876161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:02FORECAST2024107-17825.01615.8920.453105008.848.84TT-6.984-64.98415351.848788274336.9441227688010.17735179391201161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2024107-17822.87413.89218.383105008.848.84TT-9.126-68.12615351.848788274336.9441227688010.12105652403534161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:01FORECAST2024107-17824.51214.73819.625105008.848.84TT-7.488-66.48815351.848788274336.9441227688010.16281543398105161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:06FORECAST2024107-17824.36813.44218.905104.9505775008.848.84TT-7.632-66.63215351.8178987518436.9234916488420.15880832737159161111121.5WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2024107-17822.71212.90217.807104.9505775008.848.84TT-9.288-70.28815351.8178987518436.9234916488420.1173774256484161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2024107-17823.911.80417.852103.4446261680400.068.788.84TT-8.1-70.115350.8748035001136.2961128798550.14623421953229161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024107-17825.714.37820.039103.3167841613300.048.788.82TT-6.3-68.315350.7945767753136.2429675736610.19834411197112161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2024107-17825.3414.57619.958103.1129538517300.018.788.79TT-6.66-70.6615350.6666100118236.1582699754890.18711510078863161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024107-17823.97213.6418.806103.1036136765600.018.788.79TT-8.028-73.02815350.6607445661936.1543899392850.14812403567592161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2024107-17824.78214.919.841102.8342682287008.788.78TT-7.218-73.21815350.4915410628936.0425411455520.1705039349528161111121.5WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:06FORECAST2024107-17825.46614.4519.958102.84361899657008.788.78TT-6.534-70.53415350.4974171791436.0464228316540.19099984099619161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:03FORECAST2024107-17825.53814.95420.246104.08373163327008.868.86TT-6.462-71.46215351.2754810855236.5620629026530.19324168889588161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024107-17824.1713.76618.968104.08219418802008.868.86TT-7.83-74.8315351.2745179875436.5614225944840.15340473617203161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024107-17821.478.40214.936104.10005220585008.868.86TT-10.53-77.5315351.2857045091636.5688601785740.091774334062796161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2024107-17821.028.36614.693107.5037220053700.018.868.87TT-10.98-79.9815353.4085746591237.9927371644660.083597577068649161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2024107-17821.838.02414.927106.3171100330800.018.698.7TT-10.17-80.1715352.6705672535337.4949155041230.098729584364744161111121.5WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:07FORECAST2024107-17823.01811.73217.375106.99899487712008.848.84TT-8.982-73.98215353.0949339616237.7808030300980.12439408991417161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024107-17817.6545.77411.714100.3136240753200.058.748.79TT-14.346-89.34615348.9024425791434.9996684638450.038706015438585161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2024107-17817.154.0110.58100.8878067065300.078.788.85TT-14.85-95.8515349.2653218835135.2366122834790.03410904313308161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:04FORECAST2024107-17818.3744.22611.3102.4627451365300.228.959.17TT-13.626-81.62615350.2579592608535.8883920117860.046133039343386161112123WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2024107-17817.4743.50610.49106.11375354504009.229.22TT-14.526-92.52615352.5438672840937.4097530467990.03700962613422161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2024107-17819.4544.29811.876108.24975649186009.469.46TT-12.546-84.54615353.8714295311738.3064960761770.059365532425136161111121.5WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:08FORECAST2024107-17821.1824.80212.992116.9767182525400.699.8610.55TT-10.818-72.81815359.2211731098442.0205139572160.086475947826046161113124.5WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2024107-17820.2464.96412.605109.5413203723900.8711.3712.24TT-11.754-75.75415354.6706711874638.8510936192350.070828370734642161113124.5WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024107-17819.2024.6411.921106.4439794610300.611.1811.78TT-12.798-80.79815352.7495793014337.5480689740490.056039493287861161113124.5WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024107-17823.55810.8517.204107.8305416636600.9611.2812.24TT-8.442-63.44215353.6114481369838.1301139910830.13747877376061161113124.5WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024107-17824.18813.33418.761116.0426956696701.1310.4511.58TT-7.812-63.81215358.6542551001841.619206575220.15389089194485161114126WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:05FORECAST2024107-17822.919.78816.349116.0905373328301.0310.3111.34TT-9.09-68.0915358.6833259562541.6397400425870.12188496732897161114126WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:07FORECAST2024107-17819.6526.2612.956115.6115816642101.2610.2311.49TT-12.348-68.34815358.3921304431641.4342810565380.062085477950727161114126WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024107-17820.9310.09415.512119.7898570047701.4910.6812.17TT-11.07-69.0715360.9205436712143.2346203164590.082029800772418161114126WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024107-17829.5527.5218.536117.8861968942501.410.8412.24TT-2.448-52.44815359.7719029211642.4121413847820.34138293346985162114128WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024107-17833.18812.84823.018120.2432896941102.0510.5312.58TT1.188-44.81215361.1933203098243.4310730495890.50219107764721631151212.5WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024107-17832.19813.71222.955125.3730452849801.9610.4112.37TT0.198-50.80215364.2575028850545.6680724046020.45728340367141621151210WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024107-17829.94817.47423.711127.0765198589802.0610.3912.45TT-2.052-54.05215365.2662492717646.41676377940.358085113753211621151210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024107-17825.80813.13619.472127.7504690932902.079.9412.01TT-6.192-69.19215365.6641382941846.7137651976770.20179036497968161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024107-17822.8929.91416.403116.6722643015901.099.3810.47TT-9.108-83.10815359.036528276841.8896047210380.1214702507132161114126WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024107-17821.21810.45415.836117.0276307990801.059.4410.49TT-10.782-79.78215359.2520365512842.0424146973420.087125497674415161114126WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:05FORECAST2024107-17815.2963.0749.185123.2490139530201.0710.0311.1TT-16.704-102.70415362.9935859896444.7386015444940.020884297886564161114126WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:04FORECAST2024107-1789.842-4.5222.66119.6519296097600.5610.3310.89TT-22.158-115.15815360.837506790643.1749039630680.0038936511642742161113124.5WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024107-17810.976-2.924.028112.9214822839400.189.9410.12TT-21.024-119.02415356.7500047031640.2847393358840.005685653265455161112123WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024107-1783.254-3.0820.085999999999999123.320201249601.0210.1911.21TT-28.746-113.74615363.0360569253244.7696796008940.00031755804739719161114126WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:04FORECAST2024107-1786.5661.9764.271101.6694933564700.49.039.43TT-25.434-112.43415349.7584923282935.5597687121390.0011953938919246161112123WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:04FORECAST2024107-1783.002-1.7320.635102.4447844567600.429.39.72TT-28.998-103.99815350.2466615418935.880943748360.00028553986033764161112123WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:04FORECAST2024107-17816.1786.20611.192106.623180833760.2464568260.8064568269.5710.376456826TT-15.822-78.82215352.8611393914837.6231770745430.026506528912163161113124.5WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024107-17831.115.74623.423115.2512032417401.179.7910.96TT-0.9-55.915358.1727938631541.2798454611860.40813118350472162114128WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024107-17831.116.82623.963113.4061885529301.089.6310.71TT-0.9-59.915357.0467147805940.491307058610.40813118350472162114128WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2024107-17829.9848.16819.076121.76367899160.7452759931.3352759939.7611.095275993TT-2.016-79.01615362.1056687357144.0913184089720.35961762696497162114128WETL
2024-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024107-178-0.67-3.892-2.281131.2177546913500.7710.5811.35TT-32.67-138.6715367.7004376536848.2488258279445.5634115550429E-5161113124.5WETL
2024-01-05 19:00:04FORECAST2024107-1780.338-6.844-3.253132.922956325300.9710.5111.48TT-31.662-126.66215368.6953247063549.0080725432838.8587229621517E-5161113124.5WETL
2024-01-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024107-17811.966-2.9744.496126.505109632420.0657480670.9257480679.7610.685748067TT-20.034-105.03415364.9283636978746.1653026575780.0078132233874331161113124.5WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024107-178-3.19-5.764-4.477128.8055272135700.1811.1911.37TT-35.19-113.1915366.2856618505647.1796177854341.6479269548231E-5161112123WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:10FORECAST2024107-178-3.19-5.764-4.477140.2266322713800.8511.2712.12TT-35.19-115.1915372.9081799874352.2916582260861.6479269548231E-5161113124.5WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2024107-178-2.074-2.272-2.173147.0511091881101.0711.6612.73TT-34.074-103.07415376.7746191792155.4051256642292.8514060824991E-5161114126WETL