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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 12, 2024

[ Thursday, January 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 13, 2024 ]

DAY 104 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/13/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 11.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 5.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.008
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 105 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.63 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -181

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-13 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024104-18111.620040.0899600000000015.855104.95057750.0600000000000591.48000000000017.779.2500000000001TT-20.37996-20.3799612348.99651144552 36.6273854216930.007681550313784316 1114126WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024104-18111.620040.0899600000000015.855104.95057750.0600000000000591.48000000000017.779.2500000000001TT-20.37996-20.3799612348.99651144552 36.6273854216930.007681550313784316 1114126WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2024104-18110.8323.116.97110301.427.779.19TT-21.168-21.16812347.7602674264335.8193075449230.006000025005359161114126WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2024104-1819.932-0.9764.478102.83426822870.0007874021.4207874027.779.190787402TT-22.068-22.06812347.6549467637535.7508420465390.0044855359850539161114126WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:05FORECAST2024104-18110.292-0.8864.703102.843618996570.0023622061.4223622067.779.192362206TT-21.708-21.70812347.6608902510135.7547041369840.0050447125039295161114126WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:01FORECAST2024104-18112.291.46.845104.083731633270.0122047311.5022047317.779.272204731TT-19.71-21.7112348.4478748371936.2677550927370.0094238871595481161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:01FORECAST2024104-18112.0920.2126.152104.082194188020.0122047311.5022047317.779.272204731TT-19.908-21.90812348.4469006970736.2671179825680.0088761482086464161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:01FORECAST2024104-18112.2360.8066.521104.100052205850.0145669371.5045669377.779.274566937TT-19.764-21.76412348.4582154747136.2745184224760.0092716498636095161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2024104-18111.212.6246.917107.412624525750.0122047311.5022047317.779.272204731TT-20.79-22.7912350.5481972957437.6533018943060.0067609377310675161115127.5WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:04FORECAST2024104-18110.7241.225.972106.2237842697901.337.779.1TT-21.276-23.27612349.8001515220437.1570958328180.0057970420590151161114126WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:06FORECAST2024104-18111.842.8047.322106.998994877120.0141732361.4841732367.779.254173236TT-20.16-21.1612350.2881881546837.4804840498790.0082194750664108161114126WETL
2024-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2024104-18110.8141.9946.40499.8753840831620.0279527711.3779527717.779.147952771TT-21.186-25.18612345.7671284923834.5336247615090.0059657631882856161114126WETL
2024-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2024104-18111.4440.235.837100.026463614160.0452756151.4152756157.779.185275615TT-20.556-24.55612345.8638639050634.5955391983520.0072735958455703161114126WETL
2024-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2024104-18112.848-3.374.739100.534931895630.0496063261.5896063267.779.359606326TT-19.152-20.15212346.1891608455234.8041037086110.011129324004216161115127.5WETL
2024-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2024104-18111.39-1.8584.766106.113753545040.2090552311.8590552317.779.629055231TT-20.61-23.6112349.7308033722537.1112482761520.0071523425805898161115127.5WETL
2024-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2024104-18113.4244.739.077108.249756491860.5169294132.0969294137.779.866929413TT-18.576-20.57612351.0735864226838.003630240980.013164841315071161115127.5WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2024104-18117.0065.5411.273110.623946711410.7484256012.4984256017.7710.268425601TT-14.994-14.99412352.557580012839.0013109440410.034387127942376161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2024104-18115.7828.49212.137101.694909976091.1196856443.2496856448.5311.779685644TT-16.218-19.21812346.929696176135.2809842206610.025174833863954161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024104-18114.1083.6688.888100.615165474230.9748036763.0648036768.5311.594803676TT-17.892-19.89212346.2404525988334.8370404321030.015992115443405161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024104-18118.1947.98813.091100.525094393441.133858883.163858888.5311.69385888TT-13.806-15.80612346.1828712038734.800065805160.045806901932244161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024104-18115.6927.46611.579107.879962689570.7456696942.3256696948.5310.855669694TT-16.308-20.30812350.8416393184537.8487829596210.024587882761399161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024104-18112.7945.5049.149108.001409271990.7385830762.2185830768.510.718583076TT-19.206-23.20612350.9178387247237.8996211209490.010953315459998161115127.5WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:06FORECAST2024104-18115.5847.5211.552106.936951104470.6559058662.1059058668.5310.635905866TT-16.416-20.41612350.2491636415637.4545776867180.023898705302045161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024104-18115.4047.62811.516108.850564374020.8901579612.3601579618.7311.090157961TT-16.596-20.59612351.4499691070638.2555274865370.022786089947015161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2024104-18119.54412.12815.836108.023599908340.8956697752.4556697758.7911.245669775TT-12.456-14.45612350.9317592883737.9089119604970.062271976622548161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2024104-18115.8549.0512.452106.474879123640.6960633682.1460633688.7910.936063368TT-16.146-16.14612349.9583344254537.2617713562610.025652786891823161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2024104-18115.8547.62811.741111.54595296510.7157484182.0857484188.7310.815748418TT-16.146-17.14612353.1314741539839.3903868064780.025652786891823161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024104-18116.8089.17612.992112.508821715960.6543310622.1343310628.6710.804331062TT-15.192-19.19212353.7293698336439.797674606310.032732590370845161115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024104-18113.0286.8369.932110.677492034470.3074804811.7174804818.6310.347480481TT-18.972-24.97212352.5909455692239.0238815696650.011733876105396161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024104-18113.7126.56610.139105.157908112560.3866143821.5966143828.199.786614382TT-18.288-28.28812349.1275544319736.713523288520.014297906924213161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024104-18112.5786.8549.716106.14104933520.5933074071.7533074078.19.853307407TT-19.422-27.42212349.7480086705737.122620643190.010273251569385161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:04FORECAST2024104-18112.2546.3869.32111.449012710430.8405516352.2405516358.210.440551635TT-19.746-29.74612353.0711978084139.3494364122370.0093221550210965161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-18111.4085.0368.222113.104449239640.6925200592.3425200598.410.742520059TT-20.592-30.59212354.0984947991940.0501152308480.0071925608562786161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024104-18110.2744.6047.439110.755480677750.5692916462.0292916468.3210.349291646TT-21.726-31.72612352.6395343102239.0567611285070.005015344058192161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:05FORECAST2024104-18113.9649.53611.75112.369569979770.8137799672.1037799678.510.603779967TT-18.036-28.03612353.6429915507639.7387108869190.015357151033308161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:04FORECAST2024104-18112.9385.9549.44696.5063898085590.2996064611.6696064617.779.439606461TT-19.062-29.06212343.6003078372533.1596252464830.011428132080525161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024104-18120.08412.72216.40397.0472059033660.2838584211.7338584217.989.713858421TT-11.916-19.91612343.9493926089433.3793275248570.070022487848627161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024104-18117.1869.51813.35297.370304753560.3255907271.8155907278.169.975590727TT-14.814-19.81412344.1577170334433.5107417908350.035950128813074161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-18118.7885.34212.065105.959425112510.1905512841.8105512848.3910.200551284TT-13.212-23.21212349.6335034126737.0469650216780.052561974589027161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024104-18115.116-0.9587.079104.559363756780.1433071641.7533071648.2910.043307164TT-16.884-25.88412348.7490573781836.4649795502390.021096614467095161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2024104-18113.4960.236.863107.108582761660.3803151661.8403151668.3310.170315166TT-18.504-22.50412350.3571021098237.5262526674640.013440589967718161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024104-1818.1861.5264.856117.176167721520.8881894562.1181894568.8710.988189456TT-23.814-33.81412356.6069364622441.7858341975550.0024839384451298161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024104-18115.0442.38.672116.249959169530.9791343872.2491343878.6710.919134387TT-16.956-29.95612356.0386094544841.389473811860.020691168152088161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024104-18115.2784.3349.806110.545993884130.7669295481.9669295488.210.166929548TT-16.722-28.72212352.5089973596438.9684574662190.022033440963896161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-18119.0766.85412.965125.919828421392.0322845623.8922845627.7111.602284562TT-12.924-21.92412361.9067205241745.571232152950.056109352226517161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:09FORECAST2024104-18117.5466.99812.272126.783530683512.1795287363.9795287367.711.679528736TT-14.454-24.45412362.4238759884545.9493786018170.039250191589778161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024104-18117.9244.5511.237131.366526740072.4740170844.5140170847.5612.074017084TT-14.076-25.07612365.1491160286747.9683711148940.042975510395139161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 23:00:05FORECAST2024104-18113.874-0.226.82796.1777903455401.416.718.12TT-18.126-26.12612343.38796987133.0262961734340.014971372494775161114126WETL
2024-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024104-1819.896-1.484.20896.8174819728050.0122047311.4922047316.598.082204731TT-22.104-33.10412343.8011694986333.2859635301630.0044327826112552161114126WETL
2024-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024104-18114.1448.27611.2197.60670153344701.486.648.12TT-17.856-36.85612344.3100303016633.6069663626260.016154322149801161114126WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-18114.2884.0469.16793.7637447656901.176.357.52TT-17.712-27.71212341.8225903265732.0505661145280.016817293557664161114126WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:07FORECAST2024104-18111.8583.6327.74593.3093717636420.011811031.141811036.267.40181103TT-20.142-34.14212341.5268788780831.8676585085110.0082649246745237161114126WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:10FORECAST2024104-18111.6960.6086.152100.85462985030.082677211.432677216.848.27267721TT-20.304-42.30412346.3934753379934.9353857377720.0078637078519113161114126WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024104-1817.448-5.3861.031101.895414052901.626.287.9TT-24.552-51.55212347.0574778804335.3635654087810.0019144798559076161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:05FORECAST2024104-1817.556-4.7021.42799.90506981725601.576.47.97TT-24.444-40.44412345.7861390390934.5457883625390.0019896255316596161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024104-18111.75-2.1464.80299.08899088695801.386.537.91TT-20.25-37.2512345.2630052226134.2117627781070.0079955024023725161114126WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-1819.248-1.6423.80395.80367547277201.116.157.26TT-22.752-36.75212343.146004416332.8746484468780.0035734141317972161114126WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:06FORECAST2024104-18115.8-2.5966.60295.89333631078701.16.227.32TT-16.2-34.212343.2040151105232.9109780442050.025293618730308161114126WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:07FORECAST2024104-18122.915.88214.396100.6519527621701.476.688.15TT-9.09-28.0912346.2639664957234.8521443989710.12301411427714161114126WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:04FORECAST2024104-18126.49221.00223.747105.6596933514201.797.028.81TT-5.508-23.50812349.4444215262436.9221904218270.22346663458941161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:06FORECAST2024104-18126.54620.1223.333104.0069864468201.786.958.73TT-5.454-18.45412348.3992437028136.2359554178820.22526931981114161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:04FORECAST2024104-18121.95614.3618.15892.2336121593780.0122047310.5422047316.697.232204731TT-10.044-14.04412340.8253994908831.4355577107070.10266100914265161113124.5WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024104-18125.19620.35422.775102.570640683550.4736223031.3136223036.247.553622303TT-6.804-29.80412347.4873230661935.6419973563120.18272141204742161114126WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:11FORECAST2024104-18125.1620.44422.802103.259161537190.4736223031.3436223036.587.923622303TT-6.84-27.8412347.92487280135.9264306433650.18165997539571161114126WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:07FORECAST2024104-18116.59216.41216.50287.94641051239400.854.735.58TF-15.408-38.40812338.0106900742129.7268269068440.031002868229734161113124.5WETL