MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 18, 2024

[ Friday, May 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 19, 2024 ]

DAY 231 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/19/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.101
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 261

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 100 in
SWE DAY: 138
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024231-5534.8999827.9199431.40996100.056667777780.0399999999999640.159999999999962.893.05FF2.89998260.89998138441.76894419788 44.2019284841470.1012054609151116 1122124DRYL
2024-05-19 00:00:01FORECAST2024231-5435.16824.49429.831102.576378362580.1972442010.3172442012.893.207244201FF3.168261.168139443.3533966016745.477585758150.10560430792434161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024231-5434.28625.19629.741101.62383503980.216535550.336535552.893.22653555FF2.286260.286139442.9790245639845.017227318380.091633338772328161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024231-5434.23224.87229.552101.706197064180.2354331980.3554331982.893.245433198FF2.232260.232139443.011430571345.0570078593710.090824590142053161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024231-5433.94424.3529.147101.244709206040.1921260880.3121260882.893.202126088FF1.944259.944139442.829766967844.8341709844310.086600247335221161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024231-5533.96224.49429.22894.6211534269590.23622060.35622062.893.2462206FF1.962260.962138439.5984177168441.5953093290330.086859903912619161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024231-5533.8924.74629.31894.7143106281790.2118111380.3418111382.893.231811138FF1.89260.89138439.6358704938241.6398084012410.085824747334049161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024231-5533.67423.928.78794.7680940407510.2240158690.3540158692.893.244015869FF1.674260.674138439.6574894589341.6655023067640.082774506905855161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024231-5534.30424.27829.29194.4480920608530.1775591510.3075591512.893.197559151FF2.304261.304138439.5288168647941.5126581586430.091904099997799161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024231-5534.14223.68428.91394.5099830799550.188976480.318976482.893.20897648FF2.142261.142138439.5537113629541.5422138236440.089488425732753161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024231-5534.91624.74629.83194.5890469510010.2011812110.3211812112.893.211181211FF2.916261.916138439.5855076253341.5799742197520.10146458865512161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024231-5535.1525.1630.15594.5334561351560.2039371180.3339371182.893.223937118FF3.15263.15138439.563151934341.5534239420120.10530463641401161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5535.18624.65629.92196.4465328972090.1586615030.3586615032.893.248661503FF3.186260.186138440.3306784192842.4683672618160.10590459360435161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024231-5535.81624.56630.19196.3737530887140.1397638550.3397638552.893.229763855FF3.816259.816138440.3015473495442.4335126088440.11680483064767161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5535.2424.9830.1195.6975186501430.181102460.381102462.893.27110246FF3.24259.24138440.0306180443542.1098382769330.10680914011874161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2024231-5535.58225.62830.60595.5651154685620.1901575830.3701575832.893.260157583FF3.582260.582138439.9775169983542.0465022155180.11266714226536161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024231-5535.90625.17830.54295.9087800143550.1830709650.3930709652.893.283070965FF3.906261.906138440.115308640242.2109223173230.11842449660875161122124DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024231-5535.97826.25831.11891.3474463786470.1437008650.2937008652.893.183700865FF3.978261.978138438.2766179733640.0354498593360.11973157541317161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5536.66226.38431.52395.3119712171340.1322835360.2822835362.893.172283536FF4.662261.662138439.8759423376841.9254431551980.13265577890083161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024231-5536.73425.48431.10995.2957381977530.1129921870.2629921872.893.152992187FF4.734260.734138439.8694265760741.9176817161890.13406994512747161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5538.76826.67232.7293.420284545060.0681102730.2581102732.893.148110273FF6.768262.768138439.1148279793241.0222321777830.17830174251891161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024231-5537.54426.88832.21693.0768108377210.0807087050.2307087052.893.120708705FF5.544266.544138438.9762396637440.8585084214370.15069121022653161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024231-5537.1327.01432.07292.6347461661850.0704724790.2404724792.893.130472479FF5.13265.13138438.7976928093740.6479128917030.1420321760744161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024231-5538.71428.25633.48595.6884384498370.082677210.362677212.893.25267721FF6.714266.714138440.0269769489142.1054943000430.17702037343649161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024231-5537.43627.15832.29799.092116045070.1362205460.4462205462.893.336220546FF5.436260.436138441.3859601811943.737868786940.14839924375329161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024231-5539.6525.98832.81998.6484370646150.1118110840.3818110842.893.271811084FF7.65263.65138441.2094781034943.5246254330040.20004967239784161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5538.80426.20432.50496.7218050467430.0492126250.2592126252.893.149212625FF6.804265.804138440.4408110053942.6002302566930.17915921961789161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024231-5538.5726.38432.47796.6929281913860.0610236550.3010236552.893.191023655FF6.57265.57138440.4292613892142.5863949448920.17363185342047161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024231-5539.77626.83433.30596.5068562092680.0129921330.2729921332.893.162992133FF7.776264.776138440.3548195322942.4972592496610.20328146311647161122124DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024231-5542.63826.99634.81787.02754624436100.062.892.95FF10.638276.638138436.5154987049437.9888727499250.28464551862969162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5542.83626.38434.6189.19522366779100.022.892.91FF10.836276.836138437.4016240388239.0141356887970.29079927530054162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024231-5541.50425.46633.48589.2320351357840.0015748040.0415748042.892.931574804FF9.504275.504138437.4166301165739.0315761075380.25064946854622162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5544.63626.83435.73588.2405415789860.0003937010.0403937012.892.930393701FF12.636273.636138437.011960474638.5621720687730.34937244023995162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024231-5543.01626.22234.61988.285587886420.0003937010.0403937012.892.930393701FF11.016274.016138437.0303678482338.5834829496990.29644694259865162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024231-5542.8925.59234.24187.63699290535400.022.92.92FF10.89279.89138436.7651277663338.2767824033640.29248829275373162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024231-5541.73825.68233.7185.0591370553560.0129921330.0229921332.92.922992133FF9.738274.738138435.7065945592837.060826942540.25748446550949162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5543.95226.45635.20488.9115394644570.0122047310.0222047312.92.922204731FF11.952275.952138437.2859339941838.8797655775750.32659038129465162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024231-5542.92626.16834.54789.1157675852680.0192913490.0292913492.92.929291349FF10.926272.926138437.3692292365938.9764945815960.29361682887076162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5547.7528.65238.20186.3663762428910.0094488240.0294488242.912.939448824FF15.75285.75138436.2442464209437.6768347201880.45888436150374162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024231-5548.00228.7638.38186.5158233681670.0094488240.0294488242.922.949448824FF16.002285.002138436.3055986043437.7473381033950.46800696768818162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024231-5547.5729.3938.4886.5148296852670.0070866180.0270866182.922.947086618FF15.57283.57138436.305190746937.7468692682660.45238116277983162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024231-5543.6124.87234.24190.3023252140860.0307086780.0407086782.912.950708678FF11.61269.61138437.8523175786839.5390823777310.31543078608883162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024231-5544.0624.60234.33194.5601463870730.0149606380.0249606382.912.934960638FF12.06267.06138439.5738857383741.5661709833550.33014754886286162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024231-5547.13826.4236.77995.460167714393002.92.9FF15.138257.138138439.935414417841.9963084438250.43682877087544162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024231-5550.37830.84840.61392.88914311570900.132.893.02FF18.378266.378138438.9004664609540.7690882426430.55418285725325163122126DRYL
2024-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024231-5551.78230.86641.32493.20813669896100.122.893.01FF19.782263.782138439.0292426544440.9210976641770.60417894163259163122126DRYL
2024-05-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024231-5549.87428.68839.28193.23381016943500.312.893.2FF17.874260.874138439.0396023764540.933334944830.53597901468052163122126DRYL
2024-05-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024231-5557.50632.93645.221105.4584887413600.122.893.01FF25.506280.506138443.8965306186646.8126572765750.7840194928873164122127DRYL
2024-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5559.82840.17250109.0379920874100.022.892.91FF27.828284.828138445.2903747168648.5535683549750.84074993615988164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024231-5558.22641.37849.802110.2349946190100.012.892.9FF26.226273.226138445.7536623071649.1376525658320.80274745105955164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5557.63240.40649.019105.2019207989700.012.892.9FF25.632288.632138443.796136532446.6882060063690.78736915804354164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024231-5558.29839.23648.767104.1584892108500.022.92.92FF26.298293.298138443.3871708565646.1825378518940.804564743746164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024231-5562.18639.25450.72104.29103961086002.92.9FF30.186295.186138443.4391831731346.2467334173160.88736850966492165121124DRYL
2024-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024231-5561.17841.59451.386115.2785318910200.192.913.1FF29.178288.178138447.6903145394151.6090822019330.86878778533605165122128DRYL
2024-05-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5559.95435.7847.867120.2229196802400.212.923.13FF27.954282.954138449.5649634153554.0480124877310.84352120268127164122127DRYL
2024-05-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024231-5556.5739.84848.209116.378795653060.0122047310.0122047312.892.902204731FF24.57314.57138448.1095149981152.1504456761590.75819983267328164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024231-5556.5739.84848.209114.565480453060.0122047310.0122047312.892.902204731FF24.57314.57138447.4180156568851.2586599270870.75819983267328164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024231-5555.90439.86647.885114.948354853060.0397638010.0397638012.892.929763801FF23.904309.904138447.564288396851.4467786421950.73885602911113164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024231-5550.934.39442.647115.320614107180.0531496350.0531496352.892.943149635FF18.9306.9138447.7063694187451.6297734610630.57291669579304163121123DRYL
2024-05-09 00:00:04FORECAST2024231-5542.09831.94637.022121.88998416998002.852.85FF10.098281.098138450.1917370344454.8738637005820.2681855586785162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024231-5543.46632.97238.219123.99236028042002.852.85FF11.466284.466138450.9784020968255.9178765114750.31078111777981162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024231-5543.46632.97238.219124.28530386527002.882.88FF11.466282.466138451.0876823738656.0635696737180.31078111777981162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024231-5546.32840.20843.268120.2182218255002.92.9FF14.328306.328138449.563193389454.0456877074690.4079477877834162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024231-5543.30437.43640.37124.35027992109002.862.86FF11.304274.304138451.1119101593256.095892304050.30558612654562162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024231-5539.25438.01238.633121.18461265839002.882.88FF7.254291.254138449.9268592521654.524212163080.19009511024297161121122DRYL