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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 16, 2024

[ Wednesday, May 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, May 17, 2024 ]

DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2024 08:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.616
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 233

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 136
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024229-5753.34836.17644.762123.625099680240.2129922410.2229922414.014.232992241TF21.348233.348136449.7193794450455.5966031120260.61638046267027163122126WETL
2024-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024229-5764.11244.65454.383120.85766845306003.993.99TF32.112259.112136448.6741076187554.2257065420620.90220302039138165121124DRYL
2024-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024229-5764.11244.65454.383119.04435325306003.993.99TF32.112259.112136447.9852146875753.3301101494170.90220302039138165121124DRYL
2024-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024229-5761.71841.3651.539119.33984845306003.993.99TF29.718255.718136448.0976921845153.4759106774670.85814297751701165121124DRYL
2024-05-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024229-5761.57444.34852.961119.40323010718003.993.99TF29.574256.574136448.1218068272253.5071912166340.85512124113204165121124DRYL
2024-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024229-5754.62637.47246.049124.54147056998003.953.95TF22.626240.626136450.0638809158256.0516175796870.66072623597048163121123DRYL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024229-5757.23638.64247.939126.24611388042003.953.95TF25.236243.236136450.7025971058756.8994514004260.74421095266918164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024229-5757.23638.64247.939126.53905746527003.983.98TF25.236241.236136450.8120825266557.0453360168790.74421095266918164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-08 12:00:04FORECAST2024229-5764.63445.28454.959123.85912022550044TF32.634254.634136449.8074336386455.7127530013740.91031237128649165121124WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024229-5751.92636.21244.069126.31481596095003.963.96TF19.926229.926136450.7282812950956.9336599001830.56520715994163163121123DRYL
2024-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024229-5764.27445.78855.031123.60859825839003.983.98TF32.274252.274136449.7131685299255.5884143803230.90477507972022165121124DRYL
2024-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2024229-5761.75438.98450.369117.96552032902003.613.61FF29.754241.754136447.5738494904552.7982820408030.85889171364105165121124DRYL
2024-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024229-5755.14830.39842.773117.887052464380.1842520680.1842520683.643.824252068TF23.148226.148136447.5438852435452.7596294798190.67825725229334163122126DRYL
2024-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024229-5751.90827.35639.632120.753884449970.1937008920.1937008923.633.823700892TF19.908207.908136448.6347647917654.1743905479050.56455038829618163122126DRYL
2024-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2024229-5741.3622.131.73122.301957780450.2728347930.2728347933.683.952834793TF9.36208.36136449.220539139254.9405514119130.20747216431676161122124DRYL
2024-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2024229-5767.1938.44452.817117.63170363106003.653.65FF35.19238.19136447.4463347354552.6338746384070.94296935555773165121124DRYL
2024-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024229-5767.1938.15652.673117.93753634348003.593.59FF35.19235.19136447.5631640296552.7844969237520.94296935555773165121124DRYL
2024-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024229-5745.539.57842.539114.90319003712003.673.67FF13.5219.5136446.4000053980351.2927846528190.33307631954195162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2024229-5752.4343.44847.939110.29758450364003.673.67FF20.43219.43136444.6173155606649.0402159348350.58351728497203163121123DRYL
2024-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024229-5752.41243.2547.831110.33658439938003.673.67FF20.412224.412136444.6324989507449.0592312471840.58286621606548163121123DRYL
2024-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024229-5748.34443.30445.824111.16879429344003.683.68FF16.344228.344136444.9561356327649.4652371117630.4333603054637162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-06 08:00:04FORECAST2024229-5746.16639.68642.926111.69523112335003.773.77TF14.166225.166136445.1605077833549.7223058038490.35580218051014162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024229-5741.75640.74841.252112.0922599104003.783.78TF9.756219.756136445.3144607604549.9163042774180.21813516196626161121122DRYL