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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 25, 2023

[ Sunday, September 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 26, 2023 ]

DAY 360 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/26/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.140
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 442

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 267
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 75

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION20233607543.9599238.1599641.0599401.372.580.352.93TF11.95992441.95992267474.59762252586 00.1404891328717216 143552100DRYVH
2023-09-26 00:00:02FORECAST20233607545.39239.0242.20600.940945392.150945390.352.50094539FF13.392443.392268475.0652824436600.1693651476548916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 12:00:01FORECAST20233607544.58238.46241.52201.149606922.359606920.352.70960692TF12.582442.582268475.0652824436600.1525957349461116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 08:00:02FORECAST20233607543.35837.77840.56801.188977022.398977020.352.74897702TF11.358441.358268475.0652824436600.1294103191854716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST20233607543.48439.54241.51301.161417952.371417950.352.72141795TF11.484441.484268475.0652824436600.1316779922686816143552100DRYVH
2023-09-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233607543.91639.61441.76501.129921871.809921870.352.15992187FF11.916441.916267474.5976225258600.1396596718449416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 20:00:01FORECAST20233607543.80839.30841.55801.078740742.018740740.352.36874074FF11.808442.808267474.5976225258600.1376341574711716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST20233607544.74441.16242.95301.074803732.014803730.352.36480373FF12.744443.744267474.5976225258600.1558585460982516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233607545.62640.9143.26801.287402272.227402270.352.57740227FF13.626444.626267474.5976225258600.1744213859934116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233607545.37440.02842.70101.125984862.005984860.352.35598486FF13.374444.374267474.5976225258600.1689801321210816143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 04:00:04FORECAST20233607544.47438.341.38701.086614762.036614760.352.38661476FF12.474441.474267474.5976225258600.1504458174901116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-24 00:00:01FORECAST20233607544.07837.70640.89200.964567451.764567450.352.11456745FF12.078440.078267474.5976225258600.1427356681901416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233607544.6939.50642.09800.98425251.87425250.352.2242525FF12.69441.69267474.5976225258600.1547658831219616143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 16:00:02FORECAST20233607544.92440.20842.56600.862205191.772205190.352.12220519FF12.924442.924267474.5976225258600.1595373029825916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20233607545.1440.60442.87200.948819411.828819410.352.17881941FF13.14444.14267474.5976225258600.1640260286872216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233607545.15840.65842.90800.976378481.706378480.352.05637848FF13.158444.158267474.5976225258600.1644037429182916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20233607544.7839.07441.92700.992126521.802126520.352.15212652FF12.78440.78267474.5976225258600.1565897992265816143552100DRYVH
2023-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233607544.40239.09241.74701.094488781.814488780.352.16448878FF12.402436.402267474.5976225258600.1490237734502116143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 20:00:04FORECAST20233607545.30239.97442.63801.153543931.843543930.352.19354393FF13.302438.302267474.5976225258600.1674456832958416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20233607545.06838.26441.66601.000000541.660000540.352.01000054FF13.068438.068267474.5976225258600.1625207921334216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233607545.87838.42642.15200.645669641.235669640.351.58566964FF13.878440.878267474.5976225258600.179972381431361614345280DRYVH
2023-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233607546.36438.8442.60200.740157881.520157880.351.87015788FF14.364441.364267474.5976225258600.1909863490982716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 04:00:05FORECAST20233607544.638.55241.57600.704724791.544724790.351.89472479FF12.6435.6267474.5976225258600.1529560211633416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233607547.31841.73844.52800.661417681.261417680.351.61141768FF15.318449.318267474.5976225258600.213773441285911614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 20:00:06FORECAST20233607544.9638.01241.48600.673228711.323228710.351.67322871FF12.96438.96267474.5976225258600.160279801826611614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233607546.05839.72242.8900.712598811.232598810.351.58259881FF14.058441.058267474.5976225258600.184004370473291614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233607547.49838.98443.24100.425197080.785197080.351.13519708FF15.498440.498267474.5976225258600.218243542239491614335260DRYH
2023-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233607547.15638.60642.88100.448819140.818819140.351.16881914FF15.156442.156267474.5976225258600.209796238396261614335260DRYH
2023-09-21 04:00:05FORECAST20233607546.54440.22643.38500.653543661.063543660.351.41354366FF14.544445.544267474.5976225258600.195168113638061614345280DRYVH
2023-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233607550.93641.70246.31900.507874290.967874290.151.11787429FF18.936459.936267474.5976225258600.31321102903081624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233607552.37642.4447.40800.460630170.780630170.20.98063017FF20.376460.376267474.5976225258600.357651276040291624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-20 16:00:03FORECAST20233607549.08240.3744.72600.803150041.263150040.21.46315004FF17.082455.082267474.5976225258600.25982466382421624345290DRYVH
2023-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20233607548.21839.90244.0600.870079211.350079210.21.55007921FF16.218449.218267474.5976225258600.236652392551871614345280DRYVH
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233607548.93840.62244.7800.858268181.308268180.161.46826818FF16.938452.938267474.5976225258600.255883088844851624345290DRYVH
2023-09-20 04:00:06FORECAST20233607549.24441.30645.27500.728346850.958346850.171.12834685FF17.244452.244267474.5976225258600.264296034726341624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-20 00:00:03FORECAST20233607548.9241.34245.13100.724409840.924409840.191.11440984FF16.92456.92267474.5976225258600.255392592244881624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-19 20:00:03FORECAST20233607549.42442.72846.07600.751968910.981968910.161.14196891FF17.424457.424267474.5976225258600.269309708688681624335267.5DRYH
2023-09-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233607550.95441.73846.34600.374015950.474015950.160.63401595FF18.954465.954267474.5976225258600.313751766812081624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 12:00:06FORECAST20233607551.94442.56647.25500.212598540.282598540.150.43259854FF19.944472.944267474.5976225258600.344080845864991624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233607552.93442.76447.84900.220472560.280472560.150.43047256FF20.934474.934267474.5976225258600.375447244828071624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 04:00:06FORECAST20233607556.1243.86249.99100.106299270.106299270.160.26629927FF24.12479.12267474.5976225258600.481062294939851624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 00:00:03FORECAST20233607557.84843.98850.9180000.160.16FF25.848490.848267474.5976225258600.539406173356281634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:03FORECAST20233607555.8544.38450.11700.188976480.218976480.150.36897648FF23.85476.85267474.5976225258600.471950936233581624325245DRYM
2023-09-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233607557.12842.76449.94600.129921330.199921330.140.33992133FF25.128469.128267474.5976225258600.515127139147991634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233607563.26646.36454.8150000.170.17FF31.266488.266267474.5976225258600.711595705124061644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233607563.48247.67855.580000.180.18FF31.482486.482267474.5976225258600.717813145575081644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233607560.65644.70852.68200.326771830.426771830.150.57677183FF28.656478.656267474.5976225258600.631896298502571634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233607564.6748.0256.345000.110.120.23FF32.67489.67267474.5976225258600.750809240209741644325255DRYH
2023-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233607565.1247.89456.507000.170.120.29FF33.12488.12267474.5976225258600.762750408865871644325255DRYH
2023-09-17 16:00:07FORECAST20233607556.8441.91849.37900.066929170.076929170.120.19692917FF24.84488.84267474.5976225258600.505394718938171634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:06FORECAST20233607553.38439.21846.30100.110236280.290236280.120.41023628FF21.384475.384267474.5976225258600.389996476694941624325245DRYM
2023-09-17 08:00:07FORECAST20233607552.80838.04845.42800.106299270.286299270.140.42629927FF20.808468.808267474.5976225258600.371404005437451624325245DRYM
2023-09-17 04:00:08FORECAST20233607557.14645.12251.1340000.130.13FF25.146467.146267474.5976225258600.515735176491611634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:05FORECAST20233607560.15247.89454.0230000.130.13FF28.152494.152267474.5976225258600.615686811059641634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:09FORECAST20233607560.2648.6554.4550000.130.13FF28.26503.26267474.5976225258600.619178439415061634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:04FORECAST20233607559.64847.80453.7260000.130.13FF27.648484.648267474.5976225258600.599272490942411634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233607561.73643.03452.3850000.10.1FF29.736508.736267474.5976225258600.665819205921781634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233607563.8643.44853.6540000.10.1FF31.86509.86267474.5976225258600.728536023952041644415230DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:06FORECAST20233607552.89835.92444.41100.074803190.074803190.150.22480319FF20.898477.898267474.5976225258600.374290615190161624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:05FORECAST20233607537.92233.2635.5910000.10.1FF5.922446.922267474.5976225258600.0558293988426231614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:05FORECAST20233607537.74233.2635.5010000.10.1FF5.742449.742267474.5976225258600.0541277547573561614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:05FORECAST20233607539.77631.51435.645000.070.060.13FF7.776467.776267474.5976225258600.0758949936100311614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233607546.95842.38644.672000.320.070.39FF14.958464.958267474.5976225258600.204994654649791614325240DRYM
2023-09-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233607544.90640.78442.845000.30.060.36FF12.906458.906267474.5976225258600.159166896984141614325240DRYM
2023-09-15 04:00:08FORECAST20233607544.58243.98844.285000.230.380.61FF12.582464.582267474.5976225258600.152595734946111614325240DRYM