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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 24, 2023

[ Saturday, September 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, September 25, 2023 ]

DAY 359 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/25/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.156
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 455

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 266
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-25 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233597444.0099635.5400639.7750101.021.210.351.56FF12.00996455.00996266474.12818211957 00.1558793685283216 14345280DRYVH
2023-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST20233597443.89834.5239.20900.492126250.682126250.351.03212625FF11.898454.898267474.5976225258600.153754524658111614335260DRYH
2023-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST20233597445.06835.5140.28900.74803190.93803190.351.2880319FF13.068456.068267474.5976225258600.176907837107141614335260DRYH
2023-09-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233597444.67234.03439.35300.692913760.882913760.351.23291376FF12.672455.672267474.5976225258600.168836700417961614335260DRYH
2023-09-24 04:00:04FORECAST20233597443.41233.83638.62400.763779940.953779940.351.30377994FF11.412454.412267474.5976225258600.144753495308921614335260DRYH
2023-09-24 00:00:01FORECAST20233597443.86233.38638.62400.618110570.798110570.351.14811057FF11.862452.862266474.1281821195700.153075377215391614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20233597443.734.0738.88500.582677480.892677480.351.24267748FF11.7453.7266474.1281821195700.150043787040361614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 16:00:02FORECAST20233597445.35636.06840.71200.598425520.908425520.351.25842552FF13.356455.356266474.1281821195700.182927977263081614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20233597445.78837.32841.55800.574803460.884803460.351.23480346FF13.788455.788266474.1281821195700.192194126136451614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233597445.78837.79641.79200.543307380.733307380.351.08330738FF13.788455.788266474.1281821195700.192194126136451614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20233597444.40234.50239.45200.610236550.810236550.351.16023655FF12.402453.402266474.1281821195700.163471196658411614335260DRYH
2023-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233597444.43834.57439.50600.566929440.716929440.351.06692944FF12.438449.438266474.1281821195700.164180144879321614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233597444.38435.90640.14500.543307380.693307380.351.04330738FF12.384450.384266474.1281821195700.163117467345571614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20233597444.29434.71839.50600.535433360.655433360.351.00543336FF12.294450.294266474.1281821195700.16135626984081614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233597444.38435.36639.87500.559055420.589055420.350.93905542FF12.384452.384266474.1281821195700.163117467345571614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 08:00:03FORECAST20233597443.9735.25839.61400.637795620.777795620.351.12779562FF11.97451.97266474.1281821195700.155118778605551614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 04:00:04FORECAST20233597443.35833.33238.34500.645669640.835669640.351.18566964FF11.358448.358266474.1281821195700.143775685562771614335260DRYH
2023-09-22 00:00:02FORECAST20233597446.83236.21241.52200.452756150.602756150.350.95275615FF14.832458.832266474.1281821195700.215741215735831614335260DRYH
2023-09-21 20:00:05FORECAST20233597444.02434.19639.1100.51181130.65181130.351.0018113FF12.024451.024266474.1281821195700.156147183958481614335260DRYH
2023-09-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233597444.9634.3439.6500.362204920.522204920.350.87220492FF12.96451.96266474.1281821195700.174682862923651614335260DRYH
2023-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233597444.1534.93439.54200.204724520.364724520.350.71472452FF12.15450.15266474.1281821195700.158564181813861614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233597443.68234.93439.30800.220472560.370472560.350.72047256FF11.682451.682266474.1281821195700.149709425051591614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 04:00:05FORECAST20233597445.62636.08640.85600.295275750.405275750.350.75527575FF13.626455.626266474.1281821195700.18868624989231614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233597447.1236.75241.93600.318897810.458897810.150.60889781FF15.12466.12266474.1281821195700.222519252041741614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233597447.62437.09442.35900.212598540.322598540.20.52259854FF15.624464.624266474.1281821195700.234667650348461614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20233597446.52636.03241.27900.338582860.458582860.20.65858286FF14.526462.526266474.1281821195700.208672177097851614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20233597444.97835.79840.38800.456693160.476693160.20.67669316FF12.978457.978266474.1281821195700.175052455988211614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233597445.42835.79840.61300.452756150.452756150.160.61275615FF13.428461.428266474.1281821195700.184452713702431614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 04:00:06FORECAST20233597445.33835.00640.17200.133858340.233858340.170.40385834FF13.338460.338266474.1281821195700.182548022794721614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 00:00:03FORECAST20233597446.95835.52841.24300.098425250.198425250.190.38842525FF14.958464.958266474.1281821195700.218691796452421614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 20:00:03FORECAST20233597446.99435.20441.09900.11811030.22811030.160.3881103FF14.994464.994266474.1281821195700.219539058267381614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233597448.70436.91442.80900.027559070.097559070.160.25755907FF16.704471.704266474.1281821195700.261890524226911624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 12:00:06FORECAST20233597450.97239.1145.04100.062992160.072992160.150.22299216FF18.972477.972266474.1281821195700.323879825746171624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233597450.79241.2746.03100.055118140.055118140.150.20511814FF18.792478.792266474.1281821195700.318744131137541624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 04:00:06FORECAST20233597451.22439.52445.3740000.160.16FF19.224480.224266474.1281821195700.331126265801441624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 00:00:03FORECAST20233597456.7540.62248.6860000.160.16FF24.75489.75266474.1281821195700.501323912146991634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:03FORECAST20233597451.69237.18444.438000.030.150.18FF19.692477.692266474.1281821195700.344751291472091624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233597451.49437.61644.555000.070.140.21FF19.494469.494266474.1281821195700.338961004887291624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233597455.52638.5747.0480000.170.17FF23.526481.526266474.1281821195700.462488047233041624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233597454.57239.48847.030000.180.18FF22.572479.572266474.1281821195700.432446352254811624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233597454.28439.61446.94900.102362260.102362260.150.25236226FF22.284475.284266474.1281821195700.423445320444641624325245DRYM
2023-09-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233597452.7935.81644.30300.070866180.110866180.120.23086618FF20.79481.79266474.1281821195700.377490583113771624325245DRYM
2023-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233597452.93436.46444.69900.094488240.174488240.120.29448824FF20.934479.934266474.1281821195700.381856310994331624325245DRYM
2023-09-17 16:00:07FORECAST20233597451.15235.76243.45700.007874020.007874020.120.12787402FF19.152489.152266474.1281821195700.329049244424591624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:06FORECAST20233597446.74235.36641.05400.125984320.175984320.120.29598432FF14.742478.742266474.1281821195700.213647834073031614325240DRYM
2023-09-17 08:00:07FORECAST20233597446.3133.7140.0100.125984320.175984320.140.31598432FF14.31473.31266474.1281821195700.203765348681541614325240DRYM
2023-09-17 04:00:08FORECAST20233597451.40438.17444.7890000.130.13FF19.404467.404266474.1281821195700.336341472829421624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233597457.9243.57450.7470000.130.13FF25.92490.92266474.1281821195700.538439762520131634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:08FORECAST20233597459.97245.21252.5920000.130.13FF27.972499.972266474.1281821195700.602543632851861634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233597456.78643.2550.0180000.130.13FF24.786481.786266474.1281821195700.502467761033731634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233597457.63241.93649.7840000.10.1FF25.632503.632266474.1281821195700.529322087904581634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233597457.52442.02649.7750000.10.1FF25.524502.524266474.1281821195700.525898733646271634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:06FORECAST20233597448.8334.89841.8640000.150.15FF16.83481.83266474.1281821195700.265168665490371624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233597449.67634.77242.2240000.10.1FF17.676465.676266474.1281821195700.287704376341371624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:05FORECAST20233597449.15434.84441.9990000.10.1FF17.154469.154266474.1281821195700.273692655940141624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:05FORECAST20233597455.74240.33448.03800.066929170.066929170.060.12692917FF23.742484.742266474.1281821195700.469326058604561624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233597456.55242.63849.59500.165354420.315354420.070.38535442FF24.552474.552266474.1281821195700.495032800854451624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233597454.82443.17849.00100.137795350.297795350.060.35779535FF22.824470.824266474.1281821195700.440351282221291624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 04:00:07FORECAST20233597459.2738.46248.86600.224409570.344409570.270.61440957FF27.27477.27266474.1281821195700.580833113129371634325250DRYMH
2023-09-15 00:00:06FORECAST20233597449.8243.55646.6880000.230.23FF17.82484.82266474.1281821195700.291628421804721624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233597449.80243.84446.8230000.240.24FF17.802478.802266474.1281821195700.291136555488811624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233597442.4438.4840.4600.062992160.132992160.060.19299216FF10.44473.44266474.1281821195700.127831967759471614325240DRYM
2023-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233597436.9532.12634.538000.10.060.16FF4.95482.95266474.1281821195700.0576441071573791614325240DRYM
2023-09-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233597436.9532.12634.538000.110.060.17FF4.95485.95266474.1281821195700.0576441071573791614325240DRYM
2023-09-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233597436.35635.56435.9600.11811030.79811030.221.0181103FF4.356458.356266474.1281821195700.0523667562048091614335260DRYH