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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 22, 2023

[ Thursday, September 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 23, 2023 ]

DAY 357 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/23/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.604
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 469

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 264
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-23 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233577258.3300442.9099850.62001000.240.120.36FF26.33004469.33004264473.18393270088 00.6037656033589616 34325250DRYMH
2023-09-23 00:00:02FORECAST20233577253.7838.85846.319000.240.120.36FF21.78464.78265473.6569544460900.453280191182311624325245DRYM
2023-09-22 12:00:02FORECAST20233577253.58239.14646.364000.240.120.36FF21.582464.582265473.6569544460900.446726846176111624325245DRYM
2023-09-22 08:00:02FORECAST20233577253.5139.34446.427000.240.120.36FF21.51464.51265473.6569544460900.444347317832061624325245DRYM
2023-09-22 04:00:04FORECAST20233577253.11438.60645.86000.240.120.36FF21.114464.114265473.6569544460900.431297992888581624325245DRYM
2023-09-22 00:00:02FORECAST20233577256.01240.22648.119000.240.120.36FF24.012468.012264473.1839327008800.527611226466261634325250DRYMH
2023-09-21 20:00:02FORECAST20233577253.88839.5646.724000.240.120.36FF21.888464.888264473.1839327008800.456860229259041624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 16:00:02FORECAST20233577253.94240.17247.057000.240.120.36FF21.942464.942264473.1839327008800.458651580573851624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233577252.8840.49646.688000.240.120.36FF20.88463.88264473.1839327008800.423621188966711624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233577253.22240.38846.805000.240.120.36FF21.222464.222264473.1839327008800.434850088363941624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 04:00:04FORECAST20233577253.13240.1946.661000.240.120.36FF21.132466.132264473.1839327008800.431889631172981624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20233577253.70841.88247.795000.040.120.16FF21.708473.708264473.1839327008800.450895588507271624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 20:00:02FORECAST20233577253.6941.19847.444000.090.120.21FF21.69471.69264473.1839327008800.450299711218271624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20233577254.91440.35247.633000.090.120.21FF22.914471.914264473.1839327008800.491004346733711624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20233577253.9638.67846.319000.090.120.21FF21.96469.96264473.1839327008800.459248886142341624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233577253.88838.98446.436000.050.120.17FF21.888471.888264473.1839327008800.456860229259041624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 04:00:05FORECAST20233577253.38439.6546.517000.060.120.18FF21.384470.384264473.1839327008800.440188016383341624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20233577253.27640.40646.841000.10.10.2FF21.276473.276264473.1839327008800.436628128358141624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 20:00:02FORECAST20233577253.11440.44246.778000.070.10.17FF21.114473.114264473.1839327008800.431297992888581624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 16:00:02FORECAST20233577253.97840.38847.183000.070.10.17FF21.978475.978264473.1839327008800.459846283711941624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 12:00:05FORECAST20233577254.01440.147.057000.060.10.16FF22.014476.014264473.1839327008800.461041349496381624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233577253.63641.947.768000.060.10.16FF21.636477.636264473.1839327008800.448512756729441624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20233577255.43641.34248.389000.080.090.17FF23.436479.436264473.1839327008800.508417090257791634315225DRYL
2023-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233577254.10440.71247.408000.080.090.17FF22.104486.104264473.1839327008800.464030530147361624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20233577253.3340.76647.048000.060.10.16FF21.33480.33264473.1839327008800.438407449489251624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233577251.74639.245.473000.060.090.15FF19.746476.746264473.1839327008800.386877784477551624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233577253.58238.76846.175000.110.070.18FF21.582482.582264473.1839327008800.446726846176111624325245DRYM
2023-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233577252.86240.3746.616000.120.070.19FF20.862481.862264473.1839327008800.423031825736991624325245DRYM
2023-09-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233577250.61239.3844.996000.090.070.16FF18.612476.612264473.1839327008800.351121426536081624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233577252.82638.08445.455000.060.070.13FF20.826484.826264473.1839327008800.42185361709091624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233577252.55639.3845.968000.050.080.13FF20.556481.556264473.1839327008800.413040037632511624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:06FORECAST20233577255.90440.5548.227000.060.070.13FF23.904489.904264473.1839327008800.524015860038441634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:05FORECAST20233577253.36641.0947.228000.050.080.13FF21.366487.366264473.1839327008800.439594357853941624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:06FORECAST20233577252.46640.53246.499000.060.090.15FF20.466483.466264473.1839327008800.410111658008271624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:07FORECAST20233577249.92838.37244.15000.050.090.14FF17.928470.928264473.1839327008800.3301519346251624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233577255.83243.3449.586000.020.120.14FF23.832479.832264473.1839327008800.521617844177251634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:07FORECAST20233577257.75843.08850.423000.020.120.14FF25.758485.758264473.1839327008800.58522188606281634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233577254.08641.61247.849000.030.110.14FF22.086473.086264473.1839327008800.463432526105981624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233577260.3543.73652.043000.030.080.11FF28.35495.35264473.1839327008800.66713730218311634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233577260.844.04252.421000.030.080.11FF28.8493.8264473.1839327008800.680698676716761634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:05FORECAST20233577261.44847.17454.311000.020.140.16FF29.448489.448264473.1839327008800.699806329787781644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233577255.95841.19848.5780000.110.11FF23.958474.958264473.1839327008800.525813806058651634315225DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:05FORECAST20233577255.81440.96448.3890000.110.11FF23.814479.814264473.1839327008800.521018214503411634315225DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233577254.98641.50448.2450000.070.07FF22.986478.986264473.1839327008800.493405833632051624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233577252.44839.32645.887000.010.070.08FF20.448469.448264473.1839327008800.409526577449081624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233577253.09638.8445.9680000.070.07FF21.096466.096264473.1839327008800.430706508691621624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:07FORECAST20233577252.08839.61445.85100.110236280.300236280.090.39023628FF20.088467.088264473.1839327008800.39786891819871624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 00:00:05FORECAST20233577258.7342.0850.405000.140.10.24FF26.73481.73264473.1839327008800.616595648367031634325250DRYMH
2023-09-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233577258.65842.1750.414000.150.10.25FF26.658475.658264473.1839327008800.614294972670081634325250DRYMH
2023-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233577260.06243.08851.5750000.070.07FF28.062486.062264473.1839327008800.658340466387031634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233577261.08846.00453.5460000.070.07FF29.088501.088264473.1839327008800.689254311189681634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233577260.45846.59853.5280000.070.07FF28.458504.458264473.1839327008800.670412877967881634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:06FORECAST20233577252.57444.02448.299000.070.160.23FF20.574479.574264473.1839327008800.413626300103461624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:05FORECAST20233577249.74840.13644.9420000.020.02FF17.748467.748264473.1839327008800.324717872468981624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233577249.83838.98444.4110000.020.02FF17.838474.838264473.1839327008800.327430336266151624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233577261.53843.46652.5020000.020.02FF29.538509.538264473.1839327008800.702418829861781644415230DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:05FORECAST20233577260.67449.24454.9590000.080.08FF28.674509.674264473.1839327008800.676924778468181634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:05FORECAST20233577260.72844.22252.4750000.130.13FF28.728500.728264473.1839327008800.678544421905781634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:08FORECAST20233577248.39835.90642.15200.055118140.055118140.130.18511814FF16.398470.398264473.1839327008800.285206555692241624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233577247.22839.12843.1780000.280.28FF15.228476.228264473.1839327008800.252931355467491624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233577247.6642.63845.1490000.290.29FF15.66465.66264473.1839327008800.264621063635491624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233577248.68645.24846.9670000.010.01FF16.686492.686264473.1839327008800.293441679208951624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233577241.77438.0339.9020000.010.01FF9.774483.774264473.1839327008800.131012123308311614315220DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:06FORECAST20233577241.77438.0339.9020000.010.01FF9.774482.774264473.1839327008800.131012123308311614315220DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:07FORECAST20233577236.4134.30435.357000.340.010.35FF4.41458.41264473.1839327008800.0580816623410631614325240DRYM