MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 18, 2023

[ Sunday, September 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 19, 2023 ]

DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/19/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.182
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 508

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 260
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-19 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233536845.4499635.8800840.665020000.40.4FF13.44996508.44996260471.27376800312 00.1823137520208716 14415222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 00:00:01FORECAST20233536849.76639.61444.690000.40.4FF17.766512.766261471.7540346002500.303647114469651624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20233536849.60437.9443.7720000.40.4FF17.604512.604261471.7540346002500.298515597264551624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:01FORECAST20233536850.12640.2845.2030000.40.4FF18.126513.126261471.7540346002500.315188795862731624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:05FORECAST20233536849.3739.54244.4560000.40.4FF17.37512.37261471.7540346002500.291173841470651624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20233536849.83838.80444.3210000.40.4FF17.838514.838260471.2737680031200.305940346949071624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:02FORECAST20233536849.8239.70444.7620000.40.4FF17.82513.82260471.2737680031200.305366321065531624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233536850.41439.75845.0860000.40.4FF18.414514.414260471.2737680031200.324554455503341624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20233536850.14439.6544.8970000.40.4FF18.144514.144260471.2737680031200.315770766524531624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20233536849.38838.98444.1860000.40.4FF17.388514.388260471.2737680031200.291735591227141624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:05FORECAST20233536847.2136.8642.0350000.40.4FF15.21511.21260471.2737680031200.227699653370161614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233536848.54239.95644.2490000.40.4FF16.542506.542260471.2737680031200.265895605392151624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:04FORECAST20233536849.94639.2944.6180000.40.4FF17.946509.946260471.2737680031200.309394471068091624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20233536848.32638.40843.3670000.40.4FF16.326507.326260471.2737680031200.259488794666461624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20233536850.64840.2845.4640000.40.4FF18.648511.648260471.2737680031200.332246910445241624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233536849.92839.99244.960000.40.4FF17.928509.928260471.2737680031200.308817602695581624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20233536849.87439.07444.4740000.40.4FF17.874507.874260471.2737680031200.307089827418241624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233536848.8338.60643.7180000.40.4FF16.83502.83260471.2737680031200.274560781798011624415225DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20233536850.07240.04645.0590000.40.4FF18.072505.072260471.2737680031200.31344563620981624415225DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:03FORECAST20233536850.68439.90245.2930000.40.4FF18.684505.684260471.2737680031200.333436763286561624415225DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20233536850.07239.18244.6270000.40.4FF18.072504.072260471.2737680031200.31344563620981624415225DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20233536847.73237.74242.7370000.40.4FF15.732499.732260471.2737680031200.24228958970841614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:06FORECAST20233536848.6538.6643.6550000.40.4FF16.65502.65260471.2737680031200.269128764278231624415225DRYL
2023-09-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233536851.65638.80445.230000.40.4FF19.656501.656260471.2737680031200.366161619041491624415225DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20233536851.02638.8444.9330000.40.4FF19.026496.026260471.2737680031200.344822524603721624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233536852.46641.23446.850000.40.4FF20.466500.466260471.2737680031200.394208830100181624415225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233536855.59841.79248.6950000.40.4FF23.598505.598260471.2737680031200.506579226334361634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233536856.1242.47649.2980000.40.4FF24.12509.12260471.2737680031200.525502453438381634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20233536855.29243.95249.6220000.40.4FF23.292502.292260471.2737680031200.495476673763591624415225DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233536851.92641.93646.9310000.350.35FF19.926500.926260471.2737680031200.375439804347521624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20233536852.37642.65647.5160000.350.35FF20.376506.376260471.2737680031200.391062234973381624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20233536854.57240.92847.750000.350.35FF22.572511.572260471.2737680031200.469382113410591624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233536851.04440.44245.74300.055118140.055118140.350.40511814FF19.044508.044260471.2737680031200.345425796183411624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233536851.33239.05645.19400.106299270.106299270.350.45629927FF19.332504.332260471.2737680031200.355130614686171624425250DRYMH
2023-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20233536847.87638.13843.00700.110236280.110236280.350.46023628FF15.876494.876260471.2737680031200.246401626292891614325240DRYM
2023-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20233536851.2641.01846.13900.271653690.271653690.340.61165369FF19.26503.26260471.2737680031200.352695293537141624425250DRYMH
2023-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20233536850.23441.37845.80600.283464720.283464720.340.62346472FF18.234495.234260471.2737680031200.318687446713281624325245DRYM
2023-09-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233536855.2244.97850.0990000.340.34FF23.22508.22260471.2737680031200.492864499043431624415225DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233536854.46444.65449.5590000.340.34FF22.464502.464260471.2737680031200.465476509012961624415225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:04FORECAST20233536855.4945.42850.4590000.340.34FF23.49504.49260471.2737680031200.502660817424051634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20233536853.67241.97247.8220000.340.34FF21.672492.672260471.2737680031200.436960911430241624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20233536859.03643.95251.4940000.340.34FF27.036508.036260471.2737680031200.62899101412131634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233536857.32644.02450.6750000.340.34FF25.326502.326260471.2737680031200.568931908398451634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233536857.1145.89651.5030000.340.34FF25.11499.11260471.2737680031200.561199128764311634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:04FORECAST20233536854.93244.70849.820000.340.34FF22.932494.932260471.2737680031200.482419978892371624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20233536854.6845.2349.9550000.340.34FF22.68497.68260471.2737680031200.473290666038671624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20233536857.5645.84251.7010000.340.34FF25.56510.56260471.2737680031200.57727928135321634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:05FORECAST20233536859.88247.51653.6990000.340.34FF27.882510.882260471.2737680031200.657675712628371634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233536859.19847.42653.31200.066929170.066929170.340.40692917FF27.198508.198260471.2737680031200.634545429465261634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233536862.94251.81857.380000.340.34FF30.942508.942260471.2737680031200.753158328594371644415230DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233536862.6950.9956.840000.340.34FF30.69502.69260471.2737680031200.745866496304411644415230DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233536861.6150.0955.850000.340.34FF29.61501.61260471.2737680031200.713384462898751644415230DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20233536866.12854.35660.2420000.340.34FF34.128525.128260471.2737680031200.835058164138381644415230DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233536864.79652.7958.79300.043307110.043307110.340.38330711FF32.796519.796260471.2737680031200.803207806527731644415230DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233536863.15851.29657.22700.055118140.055118140.340.39511814FF31.158521.158260471.2737680031200.759318332727511644415230DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233536862.79849.13655.9670000.340.34FF30.798513.798260471.2737680031200.749005315654741644415230DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:04FORECAST20233536867.42446.88657.1550000.340.34FF35.424511.424260471.2737680031200.862653800155291654415232.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:04FORECAST20233536867.42447.60657.5150000.340.34FF35.424513.424260471.2737680031200.862653800155291654415232.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233536873.29247.08460.18800.03937010.03937010.370.4093701FF41.292514.292260471.2737680031200.948147181054351654415165DRYH
2023-09-09 00:00:06FORECAST20233536854.46447.96651.21500.023622060.023622060.360.38362206FF22.464499.464260471.2737680031200.465476509012961624415225DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20233536854.46447.13850.80100.007874020.007874020.340.34787402FF22.464489.464260471.2737680031200.465476509012961624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:04FORECAST20233536848.93843.48446.21100.185039470.195039470.340.53503947FF16.938476.938260471.2737680031200.277845721407541624325245DRYM
2023-09-08 12:00:04FORECAST20233536842.45837.59840.028000.090.340.43FF10.458450.458260471.2737680031200.119209979865641614315220DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233536842.49437.88640.19000.090.340.43FF10.494450.494260471.2737680031200.119864028404561614315220DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20233536848.2946.54447.4170000.340.34FF16.29474.29260471.2737680031200.258428786556491624315222.5DRYL