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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 3, 2023

[ Wednesday, August 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, August 4, 2023 ]

DAY 307 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.656
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 571

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 214
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 22

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-04 04:00:10OBSERVATION20233072267.6999448.7200258.209980000.30.3FF35.69994570.69994214447.08714579714 00.6559342391848616 32415222.5DRYL
2023-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20233072264.56245.78855.1750000.30.3FF32.562567.562215447.6591471522300.528297999038141632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 12:00:01FORECAST20233072264.02246.02255.0220000.30.3FF32.022567.022215447.6591471522300.505638791817751632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 08:00:03FORECAST20233072264.2245.24854.7340000.30.3FF32.22567.22215447.6591471522300.513953157005891632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 04:00:06FORECAST20233072265.9345.73455.8320000.30.3FF33.93568.93215447.6591471522300.585128346189641632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233072265.60645.46455.5350000.30.3FF33.606566.606214447.0871457971400.571783382773561632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20233072265.87646.90456.390000.30.3FF33.876564.876214447.0871457971400.582910558347871632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20233072265.35446.59855.9760000.30.3FF33.354564.354214447.0871457971400.561346086829051632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20233072267.147.55257.3260000.30.3FF35.1566.1214447.0871457971400.632402208193121632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233072265.01246.77855.8950000.30.3FF33.012565.012214447.0871457971400.54711404396831632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233072264.09446.95855.5260000.30.3FF32.094563.094214447.0871457971400.508662670872711632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20233072265.22845.82455.5260000.30.3FF33.228560.228214447.0871457971400.556110925703391632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233072265.22845.82455.5260000.30.3FF33.228562.228214447.0871457971400.556110925703391632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20233072265.01245.9555.4810000.30.3FF33.012562.012214447.0871457971400.54711404396831632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233072265.33646.47255.9040000.30.3FF33.336562.336214447.0871457971400.560598841445291632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:05FORECAST20233072265.1246.23855.6790000.30.3FF33.12562.12214447.0871457971400.551615803057581632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:12FORECAST20233072265.73246.27456.0030000.30.3FF33.732564.732214447.0871457971400.576983732949271632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233072264.7646.7655.760000.30.3FF32.76558.76214447.0871457971400.536587354345371632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:04FORECAST20233072264.54445.75255.1480000.30.3FF32.544560.544214447.0871457971400.527543758609021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:06FORECAST20233072263.545.554.50000.30.3FF31.5558.5214447.0871457971400.483716805294841622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233072263.39246.20254.7970000.30.3FF31.392557.392214447.0871457971400.479185176092731622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:06FORECAST20233072263.75247.4855.6160000.30.3FF31.752559.752214447.0871457971400.494297778213361622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233072262.00646.45454.230000.30.3FF30.006555.006214447.0871457971400.421470666960741622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233072260.11646.81453.4650000.30.3FF28.116553.116214447.0871457971400.345633950175721622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 20:00:05FORECAST20233072259.97247.60653.7890000.30.3FF27.972552.972214447.0871457971400.340060747048811622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 16:00:06FORECAST20233072264.00449.13656.570000.30.3FF32.004560.004214447.0871457971400.504882764634861632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233072266.61449.56858.0910000.30.3FF34.614561.614214447.0871457971400.612963119243991632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233072266.9248.75857.8390000.30.3FF34.92560.92214447.0871457971400.625239021975431632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:14FORECAST20233072266.84850.77458.8110000.30.3FF34.848562.848214447.0871457971400.622361449339281632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233072264.79650.32457.560000.30.3FF32.796555.796214447.0871457971400.538092910973041632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:04FORECAST20233072266.05650.95458.5050000.30.3FF34.056559.056214447.0871457971400.590292530333011632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20233072265.62448.0256.82200.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF33.624556.624214447.0871457971400.572527075599541632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20233072264.36449.33456.84900.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF32.364550.364214447.0871457971400.519996366911761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233072264.95849.29857.12800.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF32.958551.958214447.0871457971400.544860854737291632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:11FORECAST20233072265.3948.59656.9930000.30.3FF33.39559.39214447.0871457971400.562839919217261632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20233072264.68848.34456.5160000.30.3FF32.688558.688214447.0871457971400.533574689997661632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:06FORECAST20233072264.09447.22855.6610000.30.3FF32.094558.094214447.0871457971400.508662670872711632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233072261.35848.12854.7430000.30.3FF29.358553.358214447.0871457971400.394980380041211622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:05FORECAST20233072263.4146.50854.9590000.30.3FF31.41557.41214447.0871457971400.479940276667751622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233072264.5848.05656.3180000.30.3FF32.58562.58214447.0871457971400.529052137994951632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233072262.58244.99653.7890000.30.3FF30.582558.582214447.0871457971400.445323835489391622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20233072263.8645.17654.5180000.30.3FF31.86551.86214447.0871457971400.498834143916371622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233072263.28444.43853.8610000.30.3FF31.284554.284214447.0871457971400.474656235900681622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233072263.64444.6954.1670000.30.3FF31.644554.644214447.0871457971400.48976214979111622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233072264.47245.51854.9950000.30.3FF32.472554.472214447.0871457971400.524525836100211632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233072263.96845.87854.9230000.30.3FF31.968550.968214447.0871457971400.503370660371151632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233072267.58645.7756.6780000.30.3FF35.586552.586214447.0871457971400.651507961265891632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233072266.50647.04856.7770000.30.3FF34.506549.506214447.0871457971400.608602619917971632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233072263.2347.4855.3550000.30.3FF31.23533.23214447.0871457971400.472392956614481622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233072266.6548.57857.6140000.30.3FF34.65552.65214447.0871457971400.61441348763321632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:06FORECAST20233072268.37847.40857.8930000.30.3FF36.378551.378214447.0871457971400.681817888317031632415145DRYM
2023-07-26 08:00:07FORECAST20233072268.91847.10258.010000.30.3FF36.918554.918214447.0871457971400.7018223067051642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 04:00:14FORECAST20233072274.55258.38866.470000.30.3FF42.552568.552214447.0871457971400.869308520714451652415155DRYH
2023-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20233072275.259.48667.3430000.240.24FF43.2585.2214447.0871457971400.88325985964821652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 20:00:07FORECAST20233072274.44460.27867.3610000.240.24FF42.444576.444214447.0871457971400.866875979442111652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 16:00:08FORECAST20233072275.25456.40865.8310000.240.24FF43.254583.254214447.0871457971400.884373048515791652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 12:00:05FORECAST20233072283.3953.52868.4590000.240.24FF51.39574.39214447.0871457971400.980144466480671652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 08:00:06FORECAST20233072283.3952.80868.0990000.240.24FF51.39568.39214447.0871457971400.980144466480671652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 04:00:09FORECAST20233072278.15254.75266.4520000.240.24FF46.152563.152214447.0871457971400.933566340671481652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 00:00:04FORECAST20233072263.3256.15659.7380000.320.32FF31.32577.32214447.0871457971400.476165547801931622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 20:00:05FORECAST20233072262.1556.26459.2070000.380.38FF30.15581.15214447.0871457971400.427410540080531622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 16:00:08FORECAST20233072262.25859.64860.9530000.350.35FF30.258575.258214447.0871457971400.431876344629671622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233072262.90660.00861.4570000.350.35FF30.906571.906214447.0871457971400.458834535175171622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 08:00:05FORECAST20233072249.98247.55248.7670000.360.36FF17.982559.982214447.0871457971400.0714544673676191612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-24 04:00:09FORECAST20233072249.98247.55248.7670000.360.36FF17.982559.982214447.0871457971400.0714544673676191612415217.5DRYL