MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 23, 2023

[ Tuesday, August 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 24, 2023 ]

DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.248
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 601

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 234
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-24 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233274254.4800240.3199647.399990000.120.12FF22.48002601.48002234458.12420256731 00.2479345874904416 13515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20233274253.36637.18445.2750000.120.12FF21.366600.366235458.6543426933800.215326538832561613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20233274253.31237.05845.1850000.120.12FF21.312600.312235458.6543426933800.213811710838261613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20233274254.4137.56245.9860000.120.12FF22.41601.41235458.6543426933800.245810455605951613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233274254.08637.2245.6530000.120.12FF22.086601.086235458.6543426933800.236109837222281613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20233274254.98636.96845.9770000.120.12FF22.986597.986234458.1242025673100.263570283160391623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:01FORECAST20233274254.91437.1346.0220000.120.12FF22.914598.914234458.1242025673100.261315083903341623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20233274255.5838.6647.120000.120.12FF23.58599.58234458.1242025673100.282546320340181623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233274255.20238.17446.6880000.120.12FF23.202599.202234458.1242025673100.270394876334861623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20233274255.27437.86846.5710000.120.12FF23.274598.274234458.1242025673100.272689184001691623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 04:00:06FORECAST20233274256.40838.9347.6690000.120.12FF24.408601.408234458.1242025673100.310043651290971623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233274256.4839.1147.7950000.120.12FF24.48602.48234458.1242025673100.312488857145681623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20233274255.38238.40846.8950000.120.12FF23.382601.382234458.1242025673100.27614863797191623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20233274254.7737.9446.3550000.120.12FF22.77599.77234458.1242025673100.256834569566171623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233274255.99438.2147.1020000.120.12FF23.994601.994234458.1242025673100.296148702326281623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233274256.51638.0347.2730000.120.12FF24.516603.516234458.1242025673100.313714569324141623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233274255.05838.31846.6880000.120.12FF23.058600.058234458.1242025673100.265835358745131623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233274254.91437.6746.2920000.120.12FF22.914595.914234458.1242025673100.261315083903341623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233274255.3137.3146.310000.120.12FF23.31598.31234458.1242025673100.273839945067111623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:07:57FORECAST20233274254.24837.72445.9860000.120.12FF22.248598.248234458.1242025673100.240933633547121613415220DRYL
2023-08-20 12:10:09FORECAST20233274254.7738.9346.850000.120.12FF22.77599.77234458.1242025673100.256834569566171623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 08:03:17FORECAST20233274255.0439.4747.25500.015748040.015748040.120.13574804FF23.04600.04234458.1242025673100.265268167495251623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:08FORECAST20233274256.71439.23647.9750000.120.12FF24.714602.714234458.1242025673100.320492469876541623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:07FORECAST20233274256.55238.73247.6420000.120.12FF24.552600.552234458.1242025673100.314942339476391623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:03FORECAST20233274257.39838.89448.1460000.120.12FF25.398604.398234458.1242025673100.344358979429791623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:04FORECAST20233274258.22637.99448.110000.120.12FF26.226606.226234458.1242025673100.374092687811681623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:05FORECAST20233274259.82839.00249.4150000.120.12FF27.828606.828234458.1242025673100.433646171498391623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20233274258.56839.86649.2170000.120.12FF26.568601.568234458.1242025673100.386608112234191623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20233274259.4539.14649.2980000.120.12FF27.45601.45234458.1242025673100.419403299051931623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:05FORECAST20233274258.67640.0149.3430000.120.12FF26.676602.676234458.1242025673100.390585672859721623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:08FORECAST20233274258.6440.20849.4240000.120.12FF26.64595.64234458.1242025673100.389258524274971623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233274259.46841.0950.2790000.120.12FF27.468599.468234458.1242025673100.420079296332991623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233274260.4440.74850.5940000.120.12FF28.44602.44234458.1242025673100.456881784293981623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233274260.4440.89250.6660000.120.12FF28.44606.44234458.1242025673100.456881784293981623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233274260.87242.38651.6290000.120.12FF28.872601.872234458.1242025673100.473377453551791623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233274259.4542.72851.0890000.120.12FF27.45602.45234458.1242025673100.419403299051931623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233274259.21642.20650.7110000.120.12FF27.216604.216234458.1242025673100.410637673171541623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233274259.68440.15449.9190000.120.12FF27.684606.684234458.1242025673100.428209101336181623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233274257.30842.2649.7840000.120.12FF25.308603.308234458.1242025673100.341180423730851623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:06FORECAST20233274257.75843.66450.7110000.120.12FF25.758601.758234458.1242025673100.357181427306741623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20233274261.14246.32853.7350000.120.12FF29.142608.142234458.1242025673100.483712297553621623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233274264.61645.55455.0850000.120.12FF32.616599.616234458.1242025673100.615228596636971633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:07FORECAST20233274265.15646.90456.030000.120.12FF33.156610.156234458.1242025673100.634900650483241633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:05FORECAST20233274260.58446.2253.402000.140.120.26FF28.584592.584234458.1242025673100.462373507106411623425245DRYM
2023-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233274265.01253.02459.01800.11811030.37811030.120.4981103FF33.012601.012234458.1242025673100.629686945725811633525255DRYH
2023-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20233274263.35651.02657.191000.260.120.38FF31.356600.356234458.1242025673100.56824239894571633525255DRYH
2023-08-16 04:00:10FORECAST20233274265.51652.91659.216000.010.120.13FF33.516603.516234458.1242025673100.647824478264131633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233274263.24849.80256.5250000.120.12FF31.248599.248234458.1242025673100.564159505279661633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233274265.22852.53858.8830000.120.12FF33.228596.228234458.1242025673100.637498254409721633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 16:00:05FORECAST20233274259.7243.89851.8090000.120.12FF27.72584.72234458.1242025673100.429567133811691623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233274263.57247.2155.39100.011811030.011811030.120.13181103FF31.572583.572234458.1242025673100.576385932827581633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233274263.73448.12855.93100.031496080.031496080.120.15149608FF31.734578.734234458.1242025673100.582472444211221633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20233274268.23450.55859.39600.066929170.346929170.120.46692917FF36.234586.234234458.1242025673100.7391216308479116434251110DRYVH
2023-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233274266.0247.44456.732000.360.120.48FF34.02572.02234458.1242025673100.665631983036071633425250DRYMH
2023-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233274265.94847.28256.615000.350.120.47FF33.948569.948234458.1242025673100.663109606826461633425250DRYMH
2023-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233274262.38448.4755.427000.020.120.14FF30.384558.384234458.1242025673100.531286123436411633415225DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233274265.06647.69656.381000.590.320.91FF33.066571.066234458.1242025673100.631644936472691633435275DRYVH
2023-08-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233274272.60848.68660.647000.560.120.68FF40.608578.608234458.1242025673100.8556831771244216534351180DRYVH
2023-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20233274265.8441.43253.63600.007874020.067874020.120.18787402FF33.84579.84234458.1242025673100.659312288071771633415225DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:05FORECAST20233274257.39845.30251.350000.120.12FF25.398577.398234458.1242025673100.344358979429791623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:05FORECAST20233274257.36246.34651.8540000.120.12FF25.362583.362234458.1242025673100.343086223056111623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:05FORECAST20233274251.54845.2348.389000.010.120.13FF19.548573.548234458.1242025673100.167812334035781613415220DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233274245.78840.49643.142000.390.120.51FF13.788581.788234458.1242025673100.0646069886207761613425240DRYM
2023-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233274245.84240.5543.196000.420.120.54FF13.842573.842234458.1242025673100.0652662470704651613425240DRYM
2023-08-13 04:00:10FORECAST20233274245.80643.50244.654000.480.120.6FF13.806567.806234458.1242025673100.0648261662451731613425240DRYM