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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 17, 2023

[ Wednesday, August 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, August 18, 2023 ]

DAY 321 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.852
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 624

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 228
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-18 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233213674.0600656.6799865.370020000.240.24FF42.06006624.06006228454.90070616754 00.8524606898790716 53515165DRYH
2023-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20233213671.11455.95863.5360000.240.24FF39.114621.114229455.4430723357400.777592978328821643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20233213671.13255.86863.50000.240.24FF39.132621.132229455.4430723357400.778107593054581643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 08:00:01FORECAST20233213669.81856.35463.0860000.240.24FF37.818619.818229455.4430723357400.738801889641921643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 04:00:10FORECAST20233213670.75456.28263.5180000.240.24FF38.754620.754229455.4430723357400.767159009665831643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233213672.10455.50863.8060000.240.24FF40.104615.104228454.9007061675400.804872889304741643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20233213672.78855.54464.1660000.240.24FF40.788617.788228454.9007061675400.822477687345661643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20233213672.5955.23863.9140000.240.24FF40.59617.59228454.9007061675400.81748750166271643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20233213673.11255.99464.5530000.240.24FF41.112618.112228454.9007061675400.830456122550371643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233213673.16656.0364.5980000.240.24FF41.166619.166228454.9007061675400.831763198840991643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 04:00:08FORECAST20233213672.28456.26464.2740000.240.24FF40.284617.284228454.9007061675400.809605381548761643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233213673.14856.04864.5980000.240.24FF41.148615.148228454.9007061675400.831328227058631643515160DRYH
2023-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20233213673.07656.60664.8410000.240.24FF41.076612.076228454.9007061675400.829581137521711643515160DRYH
2023-08-15 16:00:03FORECAST20233213673.38257.00265.1920000.240.24FF41.382612.382228454.9007061675400.836926639894371643515160DRYH
2023-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233213674.357.16465.7320000.240.24FF42.3613.3228454.9007061675400.857712649499691653515165DRYH
2023-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20233213672.89655.86864.3820000.240.24FF40.896609.896228454.9007061675400.825163040247271643515160DRYH
2023-08-15 04:00:10FORECAST20233213672.57256.19264.3820000.240.24FF40.572610.572228454.9007061675400.817029554200511643515160DRYH
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233213672.08656.62464.3550000.240.24FF40.086609.086228454.9007061675400.804395747901581643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20233213671.58256.85864.220000.240.24FF39.582606.582228454.9007061675400.790750566742081643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233213672.2355.74263.9860000.240.24FF40.23607.23228454.9007061675400.80819307429631643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233213672.30256.80464.5530000.240.24FF40.302609.302228454.9007061675400.810074730921651643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233213670.89855.3163.1040000.240.24FF38.898604.898228454.9007061675400.771364839220411643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233213671.70856.7564.2290000.240.24FF39.708608.708228454.9007061675400.794213262816071643515160DRYH
2023-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233213670.39455.34662.870000.240.24FF38.394601.394228454.9007061675400.756459067024381643515160DRYH
2023-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233213670.50255.50863.0050000.240.24FF38.502602.502228454.9007061675400.759696618755521643515160DRYH
2023-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233213670.73656.40863.5720000.240.24FF38.736603.736228454.9007061675400.766630280410911643515160DRYH
2023-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233213671.56457.4764.5170000.240.24FF39.564605.564228454.9007061675400.790253116747581643515160DRYH
2023-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233213670.30457.12863.7160000.240.24FF38.304600.304228454.9007061675400.753743241259491643515160DRYH
2023-08-13 04:00:09FORECAST20233213669.24254.69861.970000.240.24FF37.242598.242228454.9007061675400.720509986933161643415155DRYH
2023-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233213672.2356.85864.5440000.240.24FF40.23605.23228454.9007061675400.80819307429631643515160DRYH
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233213671.94257.99264.9670000.240.24FF39.942603.942228454.9007061675400.800553225517581643515160DRYH
2023-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233213673.61658.1965.9030000.240.24FF41.616608.616228454.9007061675400.842403156036261643515160DRYH
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233213670.66453.13261.8980000.240.24FF38.664598.664228454.9007061675400.764508727253171643415155DRYH
2023-08-12 08:00:07FORECAST20233213671.3354.8663.0950000.240.24FF39.33601.33228454.9007061675400.783723373718161643515160DRYH
2023-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20233213671.99656.06664.0310000.240.24FF39.996601.996228454.9007061675400.801999455364271643515160DRYH
2023-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233213674.71455.70665.210000.240.24FF42.714613.714228454.9007061675400.866474725945881653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233213675.97457.63266.8030000.240.24FF43.974621.974228454.9007061675400.890836193400551653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233213673.68857.68665.6870000.240.24FF41.688611.688228454.9007061675400.844063704298331643515160DRYH
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233213674.51656.89465.7050000.240.24FF42.516615.516228454.9007061675400.862331427391421653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 08:00:06FORECAST20233213675.1156.7565.930000.240.24FF43.11617.11228454.9007061675400.874502708845951653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20233213674.3956.4865.4350000.240.24FF42.39617.39228454.9007061675400.859649692639541653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233213673.9457.50665.7230000.240.24FF41.94619.94228454.9007061675400.849784727460821653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 20:00:05FORECAST20233213675.36256.76866.0650000.240.24FF43.362622.362228454.9007061675400.879433059675811653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20233213676.4659.70268.0810000.240.24FF44.46626.46228454.9007061675400.899325005531991653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 12:00:08FORECAST20233213679.41260.49469.9530000.240.24FF47.412626.412228454.9007061675400.940827117227451653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233213677.8160.4469.1250000.240.24FF45.81623.81228454.9007061675400.920369757052731653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233213679.55661.1670.3580000.240.24FF47.556622.556228454.9007061675400.942443381098581653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20233213680.85263.21272.0320000.20.2FF48.852624.852228454.9007061675400.955477830596651653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST20233213680.85263.17672.0140000.20.2FF48.852626.852228454.9007061675400.955477830596651653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233213677.55860.72869.1430000.20.2FF45.558616.558228454.9007061675400.916716447812991653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST20233213664.92246.50855.7150000.20.2FF32.922598.922228454.9007061675400.567359078894561633415225DRYL
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233213663.60846.77855.1930000.190.19FF31.608585.608228454.9007061675400.517356299249061633415225DRYL
2023-08-09 04:00:08FORECAST20233213665.67851.58458.6310000.180.18FF33.678593.678228454.9007061675400.59569726532431633415225DRYL
2023-08-09 00:00:08FORECAST20233213673.81457.86665.840000.240.24FF41.814608.814228454.9007061675400.846941886187341643515160DRYH
2023-08-08 20:00:06FORECAST20233213672.48256.42664.4540000.240.24FF40.482600.482228454.9007061675400.814729101845851643515160DRYH
2023-08-08 16:00:08FORECAST20233213676.4659.82868.1440000.270.27FF44.46614.46228454.9007061675400.899325005531991653515165DRYH
2023-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20233213676.85659.82868.3420000.260.26FF44.856618.856228454.9007061675400.905878717105251653515165DRYH
2023-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233213661.37640.2850.82800.023622060.023622060.380.40362206FF29.376579.376228454.9007061675400.43221521870031623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-08 04:00:10FORECAST20233213677.91854.39266.1550000.20.2FF45.918615.918228454.9007061675400.921897946436031653515165DRYH
2023-08-08 00:00:06FORECAST20233213659.64849.13654.3920000.330.33FF27.648584.648228454.9007061675400.368203919967541623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233213661.03454.3257.6770000.210.21FF29.034588.034228454.9007061675400.419345998210441623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 16:00:04FORECAST20233213664.97659.28862.1320000.180.18FF32.976600.976228454.9007061675400.569396596483271633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-07 12:00:05FORECAST20233213662.04258.74860.3950000.180.18FF30.042597.042228454.9007061675400.45747155566281623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 08:00:07FORECAST20233213649.2849.24449.2620000.430.43FF17.28571.28228454.9007061675400.0913543703495751613415220DRYL
2023-08-07 04:00:10FORECAST20233213661.37660.67461.0250000.250.25FF29.376588.376228454.9007061675400.43221521870031623415222.5DRYL