MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 16, 2023

[ Tuesday, August 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 17, 2023 ]

DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/17/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 83.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 62.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 72.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.975
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 51
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 609

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 227
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-17 04:00:09OBSERVATION20233203583.1000262.7900872.945050000.240.24FF51.10002609.10002227454.35627508706 00.9748578564677516 53515165DRYH
2023-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20233203576.1958.29867.2440000.240.24FF44.19602.19228454.9007061675400.902299163115291653515165DRYH
2023-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20233203577.84659.14468.4950000.240.24FF45.846603.846228454.9007061675400.926942658121741653515165DRYH
2023-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233203579.1658.89269.0260000.240.24FF47.16605.16228454.9007061675400.942872041476961653515165DRYH
2023-08-16 04:00:08FORECAST20233203578.38659.25268.8190000.240.24FF46.386604.386228454.9007061675400.933856730319641653515165DRYH
2023-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233203578.92659.79269.3590000.240.24FF46.926600.926227454.3562750870600.940254409265671653515165DRYH
2023-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20233203578.11659.30668.7110000.240.24FF46.116598.116227454.3562750870600.930465621435951653415160DRYH
2023-08-15 16:00:02FORECAST20233203577.79259.32468.5580000.240.24FF45.792597.792227454.3562750870600.926222006794281653415160DRYH
2023-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20233203578.38660.60269.4940000.240.24FF46.386598.386227454.3562750870600.933856730319641653415160DRYH
2023-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20233203576.85659.55868.2070000.240.24FF44.856595.856227454.3562750870600.912854818288741653415160DRYH
2023-08-15 04:00:09FORECAST20233203576.71258.94667.8290000.240.24FF44.712596.712227454.3562750870600.91064766776471653415160DRYH
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233203576.98259.12668.0540000.240.24FF44.982595.982227454.3562750870600.914752565314271653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20233203577.4559.7268.5850000.240.24FF45.45594.45227454.3562750870600.921531578058071653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233203577.39659.52268.4590000.240.24FF45.396594.396227454.3562750870600.920770832803811653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233203577.82860.45869.1430000.240.24FF45.828595.828227454.3562750870600.926703039956351653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20233203576.62259.12667.8740000.240.24FF44.622592.622227454.3562750870600.909247309892551653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233203576.96459.61268.2880000.240.24FF44.964595.964227454.3562750870600.914483363938911653415160DRYH
2023-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233203576.20859.88268.0450000.240.24FF44.208590.208227454.3562750870600.902596218468351653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 20:00:03FORECAST20233203576.58659.91868.2520000.240.24FF44.586590.586227454.3562750870600.908682644675551653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 16:00:03FORECAST20233203576.69460.51268.6030000.240.24FF44.694591.694227454.3562750870600.910368885608191653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233203577.03660.15268.5940000.240.24FF45.036593.036227454.3562750870600.915556372515071653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233203575.9259.23467.5770000.240.24FF43.92588.92227454.3562750870600.897763632090321653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 04:00:09FORECAST20233203575.36260.18867.7750000.240.24FF43.362588.362227454.3562750870600.887910535582061653415160DRYH
2023-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233203575.97460.40468.1890000.240.24FF43.974591.974227454.3562750870600.898682737890531653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 20:00:03FORECAST20233203576.24460.72868.4860000.240.24FF44.244591.244227454.3562750870600.903188347100071653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233203576.89260.00868.450000.240.24FF44.892593.892227454.3562750870600.913400211853791653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233203575.27258.96467.1180000.240.24FF43.272587.272227454.3562750870600.886259998810221653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 08:00:07FORECAST20233203575.32659.75667.5410000.240.24FF43.326589.326227454.3562750870600.887252380809661653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 04:00:11FORECAST20233203575.8358.4667.1450000.240.24FF43.83588.83227454.3562750870600.896218382041781653415160DRYH
2023-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233203573.4955.23864.3640000.240.24FF41.49598.49227454.3562750870600.849980466867361653415160DRYH
2023-08-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233203574.87656.73265.8040000.240.24FF42.876604.876227454.3562750870600.878792637807571653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233203574.08456.60665.3450000.240.24FF42.084597.084227454.3562750870600.862842853146881653415160DRYH
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233203574.1256.62465.3720000.240.24FF42.12600.12227454.3562750870600.863597486687351653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 08:00:06FORECAST20233203574.26457.77666.020000.240.24FF42.264601.264227454.3562750870600.866587668892371653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20233203575.97457.30866.6410000.240.24FF43.974601.974227454.3562750870600.898682737890531653515165DRYH
2023-08-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233203573.41860.36866.8930000.240.24FF41.418605.418227454.3562750870600.848368591022681643515160DRYH
2023-08-10 20:00:05FORECAST20233203574.85859.21667.0370000.240.24FF42.858605.858227454.3562750870600.878445230654251653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20233203576.76660.0868.4230000.240.24FF44.766608.766227454.3562750870600.911480156478311653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 12:00:08FORECAST20233203575.97461.77268.8730000.240.24FF43.974605.974227454.3562750870600.898682737890531653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233203575.260.24267.7210000.240.24FF43.2605.2227454.3562750870600.884927191095381653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233203575.88458.74867.3160000.240.24FF43.884601.884227454.3562750870600.897147545851431653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20233203579.23259.0969.1610000.20.2FF47.232603.232227454.3562750870600.943659104198051653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233203579.46658.06468.7650000.20.2FF47.466605.466227454.3562750870600.946158339482961653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233203576.83860.60268.720000.20.2FF44.838597.838227454.3562750870600.912581164747571653415160DRYH
2023-08-09 12:00:05FORECAST20233203574.71452.32263.5180000.20.2FF42.714592.714227454.3562750870600.875640845931571653415160DRYH
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233203572.10450.68461.3940000.190.19FF40.104581.104227454.3562750870600.816943050175221643415155DRYH
2023-08-09 04:00:08FORECAST20233203571.09649.6460.3680000.180.18FF39.096587.096227454.3562750870600.790277224614191643415155DRYH
2023-08-09 00:00:08FORECAST20233203577.23459.95468.5940000.240.24FF45.234594.234227454.3562750870600.918455207469591653415160DRYH
2023-08-08 20:00:06FORECAST20233203575.77658.26267.0190000.240.24FF43.776586.776227454.3562750870600.895283164001771653415160DRYH
2023-08-08 16:00:07FORECAST20233203581.01463.62672.320000.270.27FF49.014597.014227454.3562750870600.96055920942921653415160DRYH
2023-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20233203581.64464.3172.9770000.260.26FF49.644600.644227454.3562750870600.965444278649411653515165DRYH
2023-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233203574.31856.49865.4080000.380.38FF42.318577.318227454.3562750870600.867697308979821653415160DRYH
2023-08-08 04:00:09FORECAST20233203578.3561.37669.8630000.20.2FF46.35597.35227454.3562750870600.933412102906361653415160DRYH
2023-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20233203574.7558.3766.560000.330.33FF42.75583.75227454.3562750870600.876346135012681653415160DRYH
2023-08-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233203576.87460.58468.7290000.210.21FF44.874585.874227454.3562750870600.913127833765231653415160DRYH
2023-08-07 16:00:04FORECAST20233203578.3561.37669.8630000.180.18FF46.35595.35227454.3562750870600.933412102906361653415160DRYH
2023-08-07 12:00:05FORECAST20233203579.4360.58470.0070000.180.18FF47.43594.43227454.3562750870600.945779638956211653415160DRYH
2023-08-07 08:00:07FORECAST20233203563.93249.69456.8130000.430.43FF31.932580.932227454.3562750870600.548765124461791633415225DRYL
2023-08-07 04:00:10FORECAST20233203572.554.64463.5720000.250.25FF40.5585.5227454.3562750870600.826814137535081643415155DRYH
2023-08-07 00:00:04FORECAST20233203558.38855.05856.7230000.30.3FF26.388561.388227454.3562750870600.341859960130241623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233203561.7951.3556.570000.490.49FF29.79579.79227454.3562750870600.467242052296031623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-06 16:00:05FORECAST20233203565.8454.64460.2420000.350.35FF33.84576.84227454.3562750870600.619787142504771633415225DRYL
2023-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233203562.22261.41261.8170000.230.23FF30.222586.222227454.3562750870600.483683395946561623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233203565.22864.74264.9850000.430.43FF33.228582.228227454.3562750870600.597322389974111633415225DRYL
2023-08-06 04:00:07FORECAST20233203571.25871.22271.240000.260.26FF39.258596.258227454.3562750870600.794710219896091643415155DRYH