MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 12, 2023

[ Friday, August 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 13, 2023 ]

DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/13/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.26°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.579
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 524

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 223
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-13 04:00:07OBSERVATION20233163166.2599447.5500256.904980000.240.24FF34.25994524.25994223452.15774396071 00.5788930060782616 32415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20233163166.39846.68856.5430000.240.24FF34.398524.398224452.7105136061700.584124067350711632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 12:00:01FORECAST20233163164.07646.54455.310000.240.24FF32.076522.076224452.7105136061700.494894726739971622415220DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20233163165.7546.27456.0120000.240.24FF33.75523.75224452.7105136061700.559457539638481632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:10FORECAST20233163165.15646.455.7780000.240.24FF33.156523.156224452.7105136061700.53663956491531632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20233163164.90445.48255.1930000.240.24FF32.904537.904223452.1577439607100.526918218926911632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 20:00:01FORECAST20233163165.73246.43656.0840000.240.24FF33.732538.732223452.1577439607100.558768590112651632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 16:00:01FORECAST20233163164.8545.39255.1210000.240.24FF32.85537.85223452.1577439607100.524832786736511632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20233163165.04846.23855.6430000.240.24FF33.048538.048223452.1577439607100.532475611174181632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 08:00:05FORECAST20233163165.10246.45455.7780000.240.24FF33.102538.102223452.1577439607100.534558060996851632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 04:00:08FORECAST20233163164.81446.83255.8230000.240.24FF32.814537.814223452.1577439607100.52344211700921632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233163164.56247.28255.9220000.240.24FF32.562544.562223452.1577439607100.513700380539691632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST20233163164.65245.91455.2830000.240.24FF32.652543.652223452.1577439607100.517180813535061632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233163165.44446.16655.8050000.240.24FF33.444544.444223452.1577439607100.547722608691391632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 12:00:06FORECAST20233163164.7647.31856.0390000.240.24FF32.76543.76223452.1577439607100.521355582261961632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233163164.77846.56255.670000.240.24FF32.778543.778223452.1577439607100.522051161714041632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 04:00:08FORECAST20233163165.24646.59855.9220000.240.24FF33.246544.246223452.1577439607100.540106482257091632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233163165.67846.88656.2820000.20.2FF33.678544.678223452.1577439607100.556700682538651632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233163165.85846.77856.3180000.20.2FF33.858542.858223452.1577439607100.563587386638591632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233163165.44446.455.9220000.20.2FF33.444540.444223452.1577439607100.547722608691391632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 12:00:04FORECAST20233163165.53446.02255.7780000.20.2FF33.534542.534223452.1577439607100.551178858857371632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233163163.64447.08455.3640000.190.19FF31.644538.644223452.1577439607100.478186812362411622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233163164.50846.3155.4090000.180.18FF32.508542.508223452.1577439607100.51161160271531632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 00:00:08FORECAST20233163164.29246.8555.5710000.240.24FF32.292540.292223452.1577439607100.503253878954511632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-08 20:00:05FORECAST20233163164.36446.72455.5440000.240.24FF32.364538.364223452.1577439607100.506040126798661632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-08 16:00:05FORECAST20233163163.51846.54455.031000.040.230.27FF31.518533.518223452.1577439607100.473319577449591622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233163163.44648.39855.922000.040.220.26FF31.446535.446223452.1577439607100.470540040874451622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233163162.97846.1354.554000.140.240.38FF30.978529.978223452.1577439607100.452514026871481622425240DRYM
2023-08-08 04:00:08FORECAST20233163166.23647.69656.9660000.20.2FF34.236542.236223452.1577439607100.577984479277491632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-08 00:00:04FORECAST20233163165.62446.32855.9760000.330.33FF33.624534.624223452.1577439607100.554631229680721632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233163165.51647.1256.3180000.210.21FF33.516535.516223452.1577439607100.550487910885351632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233163166.23647.69656.9660000.180.18FF34.236540.236223452.1577439607100.577984479277491632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 12:00:04FORECAST20233163165.94848.18257.0650000.180.18FF33.948537.948223452.1577439607100.567023658870311632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 08:00:05FORECAST20233163166.6548.3857.515000.030.40.43FF34.65536.65223452.1577439607100.59363333916481632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 04:00:09FORECAST20233163165.62448.32656.9750000.250.25FF33.624535.624223452.1577439607100.554631229680721632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20233163162.85246.81454.8330000.30.3FF30.852530.852223452.1577439607100.44767598502371622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233163166.6548.3857.515000.030.460.49FF34.65537.65223452.1577439607100.59363333916481632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233163163.55447.31855.436000.020.330.35FF31.554532.554223452.1577439607100.474709841529011622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233163163.71646.455.0580000.230.23FF31.716540.716223452.1577439607100.48096959764711622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233163162.34846.9454.6440000.430.43FF30.348533.348223452.1577439607100.428408591493741622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233163164.38246.27455.3280000.260.26FF32.382537.382223452.1577439607100.506736648030641632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-06 00:00:05FORECAST20233163162.34846.9454.6440000.50.5FF30.348530.348223452.1577439607100.428408591493741622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 20:00:05FORECAST20233163163.546.74255.1210000.480.48FF31.5533.5223452.1577439607100.472624566194271622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20233163166.88446.8556.8670000.550.55FF34.884537.884223452.1577439607100.602414334978231632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233163169.45850.23459.8460000.420.42FF37.458538.458223452.1577439607100.694731114674251632415145DRYM
2023-08-05 08:00:05FORECAST20233163168.57649.58659.0810000.490.49FF36.576529.576223452.1577439607100.664122703382371632415145DRYM
2023-08-05 04:00:21FORECAST20233163167.71249.0158.3610000.690.69FF35.712534.712223452.1577439607100.633043328804071632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-05 00:00:04FORECAST20233163166.41647.08456.750000.880.88FF34.416524.416223452.1577439607100.584805007208861632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-04 20:00:07FORECAST20233163166.61451.47659.0450000.690.69FF34.614521.614223452.1577439607100.592278108092251632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-04 16:00:07FORECAST20233163168.41450.43259.4230000.730.73FF36.414519.414223452.1577439607100.658372497732931632415145DRYM
2023-08-04 12:00:05FORECAST20233163168.73850.59459.6660000.520.52FF36.738524.738223452.1577439607100.669834768686911632415145DRYM
2023-08-04 08:00:05FORECAST20233163167.26249.33458.2980000.560.56FF35.262535.262223452.1577439607100.616488257155251632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-04 04:00:13FORECAST20233163167.22649.1958.2080000.510.51FF35.226528.226223452.1577439607100.615154162551451632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-04 00:00:05FORECAST20233163168.70248.32658.5140000.420.42FF36.702547.702223452.1577439607100.668568776019381632415145DRYM
2023-08-03 20:00:05FORECAST20233163176.58658.44267.5140000.110.11FF44.586559.586223452.1577439607100.885152735601661652415155DRYH
2023-08-03 16:00:08FORECAST20233163165.98448.72257.3530000.450.45FF33.984558.984223452.1577439607100.568396765211051632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20233163176.40655.32865.8670000.270.27FF44.406560.406223452.1577439607100.881726333203621652415155DRYH
2023-08-03 08:00:07FORECAST20233163176.62255.32865.9750000.260.26FF44.622565.622223452.1577439607100.885829482673231652415155DRYH
2023-08-03 04:00:09FORECAST20233163165.98448.72257.3530000.450.45FF33.984560.984223452.1577439607100.568396765211051632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233163157.84848.99253.420000.490.49FF25.848552.848223452.1577439607100.268624191346311622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233163155.11246.450.7560000.50.5FF23.112545.112223452.1577439607100.188762150660331612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-02 16:00:04FORECAST20233163156.04846.451.2240000.240.24FF24.048544.048223452.1577439607100.214287856541741612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:05FORECAST20233163157.07454.2355.6520000.040.04FF25.074569.074223452.1577439607100.244444956655111612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:05FORECAST20233163155.77853.8754.8240000.250.25FF23.778564.778223452.1577439607100.206726434088531612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:09FORECAST20233163155.77853.8754.8240000.250.25FF23.778558.778223452.1577439607100.206726434088531612415217.5DRYL