MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 8, 2023

[ Friday, July 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 9, 2023 ]

DAY 281 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/09/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.682
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 574

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 188
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-09 04:00:05OBSERVATION2023281-465.8299251.6500658.739990000.30.3FF33.82992573.82992188431.42590828238 00.6817378550701816 31415220DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:02FORECAST2023281-364.54447.13855.8410000.30.3FF32.544572.544189432.0573094089800.626596800635341631415220DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2023281-364.90445.75255.3280000.30.3FF32.904572.904189432.0573094089800.642356600636941631415220DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2023281-367.2846.3156.7950000.30.3FF35.28575.28189432.0573094089800.739367822250371641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:12FORECAST2023281-366.95647.55257.2540000.30.3FF34.956574.956189432.0573094089800.72696931429031641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:02FORECAST2023281-468.16247.55257.8570000.30.3FF36.162571.162188431.4259082823800.771592220403541641415145DRYM
2023-07-07 20:00:01FORECAST2023281-467.58647.06657.3260000.30.3FF35.586570.586188431.4259082823800.750805926401311641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:02FORECAST2023281-466.75846.92256.840000.30.3FF34.758569.758188431.4259082823800.719251314134531641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023281-467.51448.88458.1990000.30.3FF35.514570.514188431.4259082823800.748138806891811641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023281-467.13648.79457.96500.011811030.011811030.30.31181103FF35.136569.136188431.4259082823800.733893299214881641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:12FORECAST2023281-466.66848.45257.560000.30.3FF34.668568.668188431.4259082823800.715708627502131641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023281-467.22648.5657.8930000.30.3FF35.226564.226188431.4259082823800.737321680626751641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023281-468.1849.158.6400.011811030.011811030.30.31181103FF36.18566.18188431.4259082823800.772225729796391641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023281-468.68448.5658.6220000.30.3FF36.684566.684188431.4259082823800.789558492048231641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023281-467.47848.59658.03700.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF35.478564.478188431.4259082823800.74679962648741641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023281-468.61249.47859.0450000.30.3FF36.612567.612188431.4259082823800.787130761593551641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 04:00:08FORECAST2023281-466.99248.4757.7310000.30.3FF34.992563.992188431.4259082823800.728361216800561641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023281-466.81246.56256.6870000.30.3FF34.812556.812188431.4259082823800.721366639582871641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023281-466.30846.8556.57900.003937010.003937010.30.30393701FF34.308557.308188431.4259082823800.701328519825541641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023281-465.53445.96855.7510000.30.3FF33.534556.534188431.4259082823800.669347290238371631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023281-466.00246.25656.12900.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF34.002558.002188431.4259082823800.688851863264711631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023281-464.65245.78855.2200.011811030.011811030.30.31181103FF32.652554.652188431.4259082823800.631348402981261631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:09FORECAST2023281-465.53445.0555.2920000.30.3FF33.534556.534188431.4259082823800.669347290238371631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:05FORECAST2023281-464.90447.64256.273000.040.30.34FF32.904550.904188431.4259082823800.642356600636941631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023281-465.08447.3956.2370000.30.3FF33.084550.084188431.4259082823800.650148370501971631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2023281-462.645.87854.2390000.30.3FF30.6543.6188431.4259082823800.53845086461831631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023281-463.10445.08654.0950000.30.3FF31.104547.104188431.4259082823800.561671140694991631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023281-462.79845.0553.9240000.30.3FF30.798547.798188431.4259082823800.547593230244991631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:21FORECAST2023281-461.8845.1453.510000.30.3FF29.88542.88188431.4259082823800.505070101969111631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023281-461.30443.64652.4750000.30.3FF29.304536.304188431.4259082823800.478328626650121621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:07FORECAST2023281-460.92642.87251.8990000.30.3FF28.926541.926188431.4259082823800.460824944513081621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023281-459.64843.0751.3590000.30.3FF27.648544.648188431.4259082823800.40239962310271621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023281-462.4245.1453.780000.30.3FF30.42549.42188431.4259082823800.53012182474241631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:27FORECAST2023281-463.28445.73454.5090000.30.3FF31.284551.284188431.4259082823800.569917122681281631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023281-462.67245.62654.14943.3200984000.30.3FF30.672547.672188448.7717547572819.4408365752260.54177797061648163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023281-463.06846.97655.02243.5032062000.30.3FF31.068546.068188448.841097254719.5260268049060.56001860780056163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023281-462.04244.7853.4110000.30.3FF30.042543.042188431.4259082823800.512592225876951631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023281-463.96847.04855.5080000.30.3FF31.968548.968188431.4259082823800.600945335836381631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023281-462.31246.29254.302000.040.30.34FF30.312541.312188431.4259082823800.525117831378021631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:10FORECAST2023281-464.18446.7655.472000.040.30.34FF32.184549.184188431.4259082823800.610622416115531631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:08FORECAST2023281-463.55446.72455.139000.050.30.35FF31.554546.554188431.4259082823800.582228043635421631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023281-464.07649.33456.70500.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF32.076551.076188431.4259082823800.605792037021781631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023281-464.36449.47856.92100.031496080.031496080.30.33149608FF32.364548.364188431.4259082823800.618634864251971631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023281-463.17649.156.13800.023622060.023622060.30.32362206FF31.176547.176188431.4259082823800.564972954659421631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:08FORECAST2023281-464.56251.29657.92900.051181130.051181130.30.35118113FF32.562546.562188431.4259082823800.627390094211711631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:04FORECAST2023281-467.149.9158.505000.020.30.32FF35.1552.1188431.4259082823800.732515637965371641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023281-468.91851.45860.1880000.30.3FF36.918557.918188431.4259082823800.79733576008641641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:21FORECAST2023281-471.25853.61862.4380000.30.3FF39.258559.258188431.4259082823800.865366779437931651415150DRYMH
2023-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023281-467.31653.20460.26000.020.30.32FF35.316554.316188431.4259082823800.740727350700431641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023281-467.47853.2460.3590000.30.3FF35.478556.478188431.4259082823800.74679962648741641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:09FORECAST2023281-470.01654.26662.141000.010.30.31FF38.016553.016188431.4259082823800.831481825943411641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023281-469.13452.68260.9080000.30.3FF37.134551.134188431.4259082823800.80436035415231641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 08:00:07FORECAST2023281-468.70251.49460.0980000.30.3FF36.702555.702188431.4259082823800.790162880430751641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 04:00:11FORECAST2023281-467.40651.31459.360000.30.3FF35.406545.406188431.4259082823800.744110089536131641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:05FORECAST2023281-466.252.86259.5310000.30.3FF34.2541.2188431.4259082823800.69695094136491631415220DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:08FORECAST2023281-467.44253.3360.386000.040.30.34FF35.442547.442188431.4259082823800.745456716302581641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:07FORECAST2023281-465.04849.65857.3530000.30.3FF33.048545.048188431.4259082823800.648594939097961631415220DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023281-464.1344.72654.4280000.30.3FF32.13539.13188431.4259082823800.60820931110031631415220DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:07FORECAST2023281-464.00444.72654.3650000.30.3FF32.004545.004188431.4259082823800.602562672603631631415220DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:20FORECAST2023281-462.5135.56449.0370000.30.3FF30.51535.51188431.4259082823800.534288222093891631415220DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023281-453.97846.45450.2160000.330.33FF21.978537.978188431.4259082823800.182112017710741611415215DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:08FORECAST2023281-461.6154.37457.9920000.310.31FF29.61552.61188431.4259082823800.492530543160941621415217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:08FORECAST2023281-455.11250.70252.9070000.310.31FF23.112547.112188431.4259082823800.219089718061551611415215DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023281-454.37448.54251.4580000.310.31FF22.374549.374188431.4259082823800.194558205733961611415215DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:09FORECAST2023281-454.37448.54251.4580000.340.34FF22.374544.374188431.4259082823800.194558205733961611415215DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:17FORECAST2023281-455.63453.94254.7880000.310.31FF23.634527.634188431.4259082823800.237463949957191611415215DRYL