Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 26, 2023

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DAY 299 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/27/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.41°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.94°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.18°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.241 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 590 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 206 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.43 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 14 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 35.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-27 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	299	14	59.41004	38.94008	49.17506	0	0	0.3	0.24	0.54	F	F	27.41004	590.41004	206	442.43203585831	0	0.24122532986519	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.326	38.966	48.146	0	0	0.3	0.24	0.54	F	F	25.326	588.326	207	443.02169306381	0	0.17530315902532	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.216	38.768	48.992	0	0	0.3	0.24	0.54	F	F	27.216	590.216	207	443.02169306381	0	0.23457112819237	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.63	38.606	49.118	0	0	0.3	0.24	0.54	F	F	27.63	590.63	207	443.02169306381	0	0.2488906052453	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-26 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.738	39.542	49.64	0	0	0.3	0.24	0.54	F	F	27.738	590.738	207	443.02169306381	0	0.25270109063581	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.26	39.398	49.829	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	28.26	591.26	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27154207904635	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.756	38.606	49.181	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	27.756	589.756	206	442.43203585831	0	0.25333914085911	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.738	38.984	49.361	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	27.738	589.738	206	442.43203585831	0	0.25270109063581	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	58.424	39.704	49.064	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	26.424	588.424	206	442.43203585831	0	0.20848962697407	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	58.514	38.786	48.65	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	26.514	589.514	206	442.43203585831	0	0.21136456269533	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.948	38.282	47.615	0	0	0.24	0.24	0.48	F	F	24.948	585.948	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16469783605077	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	58.802	39.47	49.136	0	0	0.32	0.24	0.56	F	F	26.802	589.802	206	442.43203585831	0	0.22071868269702	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.126	39.452	49.289	0	0	0.38	0.24	0.62	F	F	27.126	588.126	206	442.43203585831	0	0.23151951719168	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.974	39.02	48.497	0	0	0.35	0.24	0.59	F	F	25.974	586.974	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19446389919946	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.192	39.488	47.84	0	0	0.35	0.24	0.59	F	F	24.192	583.192	206	442.43203585831	0	0.14475860508624	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	38.912	47.246	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.58	585.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	38.912	47.246	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.58	585.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	38.912	47.246	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.58	582.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	38.912	47.246	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.58	581.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	38.912	47.246	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.58	581.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.93	40.046	48.488	0	0	0.38	0.24	0.62	F	F	24.93	582.93	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16420338314642	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	54.68	38.192	46.436	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	22.68	578.68	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10992141564049	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.256	38.3	46.778	0	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	23.256	579.256	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12240984628095	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.634	38.318	46.976	0	0	0.22	0.24	0.46	F	F	23.634	574.634	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13112618618467	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.634	38.318	46.976	0	0	0.22	0.24	0.46	F	F	23.634	573.634	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13112618618467	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.094	38.336	46.715	0	0	0.15	0.24	0.39	F	F	23.094	572.094	206	442.43203585831	0	0.11880122269315	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.652	38.948	47.3	0	0	0.11	0.24	0.35	F	F	23.652	572.652	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13155165163381	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.31	38.516	46.913	0	0	0.14	0.24	0.38	F	F	23.31	571.31	206	442.43203585831	0	0.1236295897003	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	299	14	54.608	37.94	46.274	0	0	0.11	0.24	0.35	F	F	22.608	571.608	206	442.43203585831	0	0.10842688431094	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.372	39.434	47.903	0	0	0.13	0.24	0.37	F	F	24.372	571.372	206	442.43203585831	0	0.1493522844797	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-21 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.732	39.812	48.272	0	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	24.732	573.732	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15882785955152	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.696	38.858	47.777	0	0	0.07	0.24	0.31	F	F	24.696	577.696	206	442.43203585831	0	0.15786299385105	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.652	37.85	46.751	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	23.652	574.652	206	442.43203585831	0	0.13155165163381	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.11	38.3	47.705	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	25.11	578.11	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16919115042229	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	299	14	58.136	39.128	48.632	0	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	26.136	582.136	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19944581045325	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.398	39.2	48.299	0	0	0.02	0.24	0.26	F	F	25.398	573.398	206	442.43203585831	0	0.17737115038274	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.894	39.038	47.966	0	0	0.02	0.24	0.26	F	F	24.894	567.894	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16321736119441	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 16:00:09	FORECAST	2023	299	14	55.58	39.722	47.651	0	0	0.01	0.24	0.25	F	F	23.58	572.58	206	442.43203585831	0	0.12985548014013	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	56.822	41.342	49.082	0	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	24.822	570.822	206	442.43203585831	0	0.16125685489732	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.812	41.792	49.802	0	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	25.812	577.812	206	442.43203585831	0	0.18955832289325	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.938	43.79	50.864	0	0	0.04	0.24	0.28	F	F	25.938	574.938	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19336715994272	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.648	42.386	51.017	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	27.648	576.648	206	442.43203585831	0	0.24952355826781	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.89	43.916	52.403	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.89	578.89	206	442.43203585831	0	0.29517452644117	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.458	42.314	51.386	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.458	575.458	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27886710777742	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.962	40.568	50.765	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.962	574.962	206	442.43203585831	0	0.29793450265563	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.224	40.442	50.333	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.224	574.224	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27022061165846	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	299	14	61.808	43.124	52.466	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	29.808	581.808	206	442.43203585831	0	0.33120470503069	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.512	42.638	51.575	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.512	568.512	206	442.43203585831	0	0.28088138121387	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	299	14	60.332	42.548	51.44	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.332	568.332	206	442.43203585831	0	0.27419462029556	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	59.414	41.432	50.423	0	0	0.1	0.24	0.34	F	F	27.414	569.414	206	442.43203585831	0	0.24136218814773	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	57.578	41.252	49.415	0	0	0.11	0.24	0.35	F	F	25.578	569.578	206	442.43203585831	0	0.18260801832252	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	58.136	41.18	49.658	0	0	0.12	0.24	0.36	F	F	26.136	564.136	206	442.43203585831	0	0.19944581045325	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	299	14	63.032	43.178	53.105	0	0	0.11	0.24	0.35	F	F	31.032	572.032	206	442.43203585831	0	0.38173062675346	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	64.292	46.31	55.301	0	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	32.292	574.292	206	442.43203585831	0	0.43592827897088	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	299	14	66.776	47.552	57.164	0	0	0.09	0.24	0.33	F	F	34.776	586.776	206	442.43203585831	0	0.54537503705458	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-17 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	70.376	53.222	61.799	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	38.376	615.376	206	442.43203585831	0	0.69600879708012	16	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-17 12:00:10	FORECAST	2023	299	14	71.222	51.044	61.133	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	39.222	620.222	206	442.43203585831	0	0.7279817934473	16	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-07-17 08:00:09	FORECAST	2023	299	14	69.044	51.044	60.044	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	37.044	607.044	206	442.43203585831	0	0.64256874241317	16	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	299	14	70.718	46.328	58.523	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	38.718	597.718	206	442.43203585831	0	0.70913514375224	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-17 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	299	14	51.98	43.934	47.957	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	19.98	579.98	206	442.43203585831	0	0.063403522644871	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 20:00:10	FORECAST	2023	299	14	49.172	43.07	46.121	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	17.172	567.172	206	442.43203585831	0	0.032945404395329	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	299	14	49.01	42.098	45.554	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	17.01	571.01	206	442.43203585831	0	0.031641206872647	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	299	14	49.748	45.644	47.696	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	17.748	574.748	206	442.43203585831	0	0.037944750893235	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	299	14	50	45.914	47.957	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	18	575	206	442.43203585831	0	0.040318023086819	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	299	14	46.166	44.69	45.428	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	14.166	569.166	206	442.43203585831	0	0.014848857365201	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L