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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 23, 2023

[ Saturday, July 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, July 24, 2023 ]

DAY 296 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/24/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.712
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 634

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 203
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 11

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-24 04:00:05OBSERVATION20232961168.7500649.4999659.125010000.240.24FF36.75006633.75006203440.64956026036 00.711594788844916 42515155DRYH
2023-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20232961165.94847.46256.7050000.240.24FF33.948630.948204441.2459780199400.601160705184361632515225DRYL
2023-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20232961165.06647.96656.5160000.240.24FF33.066630.066204441.2459780199400.564107160494121632515225DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:01FORECAST20232961164.52647.0355.7780000.240.24FF32.526629.526204441.2459780199400.541118073180131632515225DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:07FORECAST20232961164.68847.0355.8590000.240.24FF32.688629.688204441.2459780199400.548032831856791632515225DRYL
2023-07-23 00:00:06FORECAST20232961163.28447.01255.1480000.240.24FF31.284623.284203440.6495602603600.487845839549251622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 20:00:01FORECAST20232961163.28447.01255.1480000.240.24FF31.284622.284203440.6495602603600.487845839549251622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20232961163.8646.74255.3010000.240.24FF31.86622.86203440.6495602603600.512582595238531632515225DRYL
2023-07-22 12:00:03FORECAST20232961162.58246.8554.7160000.240.24FF30.582621.582203440.6495602603600.457770376199661622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20232961163.03246.77854.9050000.240.24FF31.032622.032203440.6495602603600.477032594132291622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 04:00:09FORECAST20232961162.76247.22854.9950000.240.24FF30.762622.762203440.6495602603600.465465920607451622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:04FORECAST20232961163.21246.56254.8870000.240.24FF31.212620.212203440.6495602603600.484755080473511622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 20:00:07FORECAST20232961163.7746.97655.3730000.240.24FF31.77620.77203440.6495602603600.508718250013811632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 16:00:03FORECAST20232961163.80646.43655.1210000.240.24FF31.806622.806203440.6495602603600.510264106628381632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:03FORECAST20232961163.71646.20254.9590000.240.24FF31.716622.716203440.6495602603600.506399226806041632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20232961162.79845.87854.3380000.240.24FF30.798621.798203440.6495602603600.467006673737551622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 04:00:11FORECAST20232961162.92446.74254.8330000.240.24FF30.924621.924203440.6495602603600.472403053050441622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20232961162.1546.63454.3920000.240.24FF30.15616.15203440.6495602603600.439370942962791622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 20:00:05FORECAST20232961161.53845.93253.7350000.240.24FF29.538615.538203440.6495602603600.413536858084671622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 16:00:07FORECAST20232961162.34845.46453.9060000.240.24FF30.348617.348203440.6495602603600.447790214030281622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 12:00:05FORECAST20232961160.85444.6952.7720000.240.24FF28.854614.854203440.6495602603600.385104998173581622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20232961161.9745.55453.7620000.240.24FF29.97618.97203440.6495602603600.431740682342161622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 04:00:09FORECAST20232961161.95246.16654.0590000.240.24FF29.952616.952203440.6495602603600.4309790064021622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 00:00:06FORECAST20232961161.17845.87853.5280000.240.24FF29.178613.178203440.6495602603600.39850595956011622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 20:00:04FORECAST20232961161.64646.00453.8250000.240.24FF29.646611.646203440.6495602603600.41807202731291622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 16:00:05FORECAST20232961161.35845.5953.4740000.240.24FF29.358610.358203440.6495602603600.406004092763711622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 12:00:04FORECAST20232961160.51244.22252.3670000.240.24FF28.512609.512203440.6495602603600.37110716135051622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20232961160.65643.84452.250000.240.24FF28.656609.656203440.6495602603600.376981432947971622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 04:00:18FORECAST20232961161.91644.90653.4110000.240.24FF29.916610.916203440.6495602603600.429456427089781622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 00:00:05FORECAST20232961159.39643.1651.2780000.240.24FF27.396604.396203440.6495602603600.326686719806551622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 20:00:05FORECAST20232961159.41443.30451.3590000.240.24FF27.414605.414203440.6495602603600.327386037284341622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20232961159.46841.70250.5850000.240.24FF27.468608.468203440.6495602603600.329487616409541622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 12:00:04FORECAST20232961159.16241.73850.450000.240.24FF27.162610.162203440.6495602603600.317651669429551622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 08:00:04FORECAST20232961157.93841.8149.8740000.240.24FF25.938603.938203440.6495602603600.272234276690361622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 04:00:18FORECAST20232961158.15442.87250.5130000.240.24FF26.154605.154203440.6495602603600.28001024160761622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 00:00:04FORECAST20232961159.95445.10452.5290000.240.24FF27.954598.954203440.6495602603600.348637639037731622415220DRYL
2023-07-17 20:00:07FORECAST20232961160.29645.37452.8350000.240.24FF28.296604.296203440.6495602603600.362352145922891622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 16:00:04FORECAST20232961162.31243.0752.6910000.240.24FF30.312615.312203440.6495602603600.446257572811511622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 12:00:09FORECAST20232961162.94241.19852.070000.240.24FF30.942615.942203440.6495602603600.473174401352891622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 08:00:07FORECAST20232961161.9742.02651.9980000.240.24FF29.97609.97203440.6495602603600.431740682342161622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 04:00:10FORECAST20232961161.23241.50451.3680000.240.24FF29.232608.232203440.6495602603600.400751605203821622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST20232961160.844.16852.4840000.240.24FF28.8609.8203440.6495602603600.382884307594021622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 20:00:08FORECAST20232961160.67443.53852.1060000.240.24FF28.674600.674203440.6495602603600.377717754211371622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 16:00:04FORECAST20232961162.0643.4352.7450000.240.24FF30.06601.06203440.6495602603600.435552813828861622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 12:00:08FORECAST20232961164.63445.03254.8330000.240.24FF32.634603.634203440.6495602603600.545729425541391632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST20232961164.50844.654.5540000.240.24FF32.508603.508203440.6495602603600.540348959229951632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 04:00:11FORECAST20232961162.31242.40452.3580000.240.24FF30.312603.312203440.6495602603600.446257572811511622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 00:00:05FORECAST20232961160.11641.55850.8370000.240.24FF28.116583.116203440.6495602603600.355110650585521622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:05FORECAST20232961158.83840.89249.8650000.240.24FF26.838579.838203440.6495602603600.305319543927391622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST20232961159.5444.74452.1420000.240.24FF27.54579.54203440.6495602603600.332298105323361622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:06FORECAST20232961159.86443.08851.4760000.290.29FF27.864577.864203440.6495602603600.345060318004351622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST20232961158.2841.70249.9910000.30.3FF26.28569.28203440.6495602603600.284595350115111622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:11FORECAST20232961157.03841.25249.1450000.30.3FF25.038566.038203440.6495602603600.241032601989051612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:04FORECAST20232961158.3741.84650.1080000.270.27FF26.37572.37203440.6495602603600.287892200737161622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:04FORECAST20232961159.28841.39650.3420000.280.28FF27.288575.288203440.6495602603600.322503654673781622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:05FORECAST20232961160.09841.91851.0080000.290.29FF28.098567.098203440.6495602603600.354389318751661622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST20232961166.54242.54854.5450000.240.24FF34.542583.542203440.6495602603600.625632119985221632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:08FORECAST20232961166.75845.39256.0750000.240.24FF34.758587.758203440.6495602603600.634412523165151632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:10FORECAST20232961163.39244.74454.0680000.240.24FF31.392584.392203440.6495602603600.492483289170011622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST20232961152.10646.54449.3250000.240.24FF20.106572.106203440.6495602603600.108529433054581612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:06FORECAST20232961152.10646.54449.3250000.240.24FF20.106571.106203440.6495602603600.108529433054581612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:07FORECAST20232961156.04848.0252.0340000.240.24FF24.048582.048203440.6495602603600.209083933250211612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:09FORECAST20232961149.22644.54646.8860000.240.24FF17.226568.226203440.6495602603600.061154566106931612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:06FORECAST20232961149.22644.54646.8860000.240.24FF17.226577.226203440.6495602603600.061154566106931612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:10FORECAST20232961155.45454.2354.8420000.240.24FF23.454589.454203440.6495602603600.191172503749051612415217.5DRYL