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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 20, 2023

[ Wednesday, July 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, July 21, 2023 ]

DAY 293 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/27/2023 01:30:00 PM
According to the database, there was a(n) UNKNOWN on this day. Click here for more info.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.817
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 638

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 200
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-21 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023293871.8300455.1899463.509990000.240.24FF39.83004637.83004200438.84664817393 00.8166527894742716 42515155DRYH
2023-07-21 00:00:01FORECAST2023293868.01852.86260.440000.240.24FF36.018634.018201439.4499039988800.687412139250531632515150DRYMH
2023-07-20 12:00:02FORECAST2023293868.34253.36660.8540000.240.24FF36.342634.342201439.4499039988800.699764336681751642515155DRYH
2023-07-20 08:00:01FORECAST2023293870.10653.43861.7720000.240.24FF38.106636.106201439.4499039988800.762804283592561642515155DRYH
2023-07-20 04:00:07FORECAST2023293869.90853.11461.5110000.240.24FF37.908635.908201439.4499039988800.7561090878341642515155DRYH
2023-07-20 00:00:04FORECAST2023293870.30452.53861.4210000.240.24FF38.304631.304200438.8466481739300.769397410290591642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 20:00:02FORECAST2023293870.46653.52861.9970000.240.24FF38.466630.466200438.8466481739300.774714859582251642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 16:00:02FORECAST2023293870.46654.98662.7260000.240.24FF38.466630.466200438.8466481739300.774714859582251642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 12:00:03FORECAST2023293869.6253.56461.5920000.240.24FF37.62629.62200438.8466481739300.746191637901851642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 08:00:02FORECAST2023293869.94454.19462.0690000.240.24FF37.944629.944200438.8466481739300.757333919554761642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 04:00:17FORECAST2023293869.7153.94261.8260000.240.24FF37.71630.71200438.8466481739300.749313377428011642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 00:00:04FORECAST2023293868.50452.77260.6380000.240.24FF36.504626.504200438.8466481739300.705856606096581642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023293869.04453.20461.1240000.240.24FF37.044629.044200438.8466481739300.725740245900661642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2023293869.8953.90661.8980000.240.24FF37.89629.89200438.8466481739300.755495425200621642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST2023293870.23253.54661.8890000.240.24FF38.232631.232200438.8466481739300.76701181254481642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023293869.02652.08860.5570000.240.24FF37.026627.026200438.8466481739300.725088281817871642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 04:00:17FORECAST2023293868.91851.72860.3230000.240.24FF36.918627.918200438.8466481739300.721160553710341642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023293867.85652.50260.1790000.240.24FF35.856622.856200438.8466481739300.681155049097541632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 20:00:05FORECAST2023293868.5452.77260.6560000.240.24FF36.54625.54200438.8466481739300.707202654551911642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023293870.5254.1462.330000.240.24FF38.52629.52200438.8466481739300.776471817087871642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023293870.53854.44662.4920000.240.24FF38.538629.538200438.8466481739300.777055736137481642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023293869.47653.47461.4750000.240.24FF37.476626.476200438.8466481739300.741154786670011642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 04:00:09FORECAST2023293869.76453.67261.7180000.240.24FF37.764625.764200438.8466481739300.751176628077891642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023293870.28653.49261.8890000.240.24FF38.286623.286200438.8466481739300.768802291500911642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023293869.24254.06861.6550000.240.24FF37.242616.242200438.8466481739300.732861115180891642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023293869.40453.65461.5290000.240.24FF37.404615.404200438.8466481739300.738617131210921642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023293869.09853.43861.2680000.240.24FF37.098616.098200438.8466481739300.727691550849351642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023293869.06252.19660.6290000.240.24FF37.062617.062200438.8466481739300.726391446489311642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023293869.69253.72661.7090000.240.24FF37.692617.692200438.8466481739300.748690658219351642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023293868.34249.96459.1530000.240.24FF36.342607.342200438.8466481739300.699764336681751642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023293868.1851.02659.6030000.240.24FF36.18606.18200438.8466481739300.693615715883831632515150DRYMH
2023-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023293866.57850.9958.7840000.240.24FF34.578602.578200438.8466481739300.630097946528391632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023293866.81250.61258.7120000.290.29FF34.812606.812200438.8466481739300.639652431150751632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023293865.67849.29857.4880000.30.3FF33.678601.678200438.8466481739300.59264538501371632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:11FORECAST2023293865.575057.7850000.30.3FF33.57596.57200438.8466481739300.588086056089321632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023293865.8448.63257.2360000.270.27FF33.84596.84200438.8466481739300.599460729376791632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023293866.50648.21857.3620000.280.28FF34.506599.506200438.8466481739300.627141561747171632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023293865.55249.157.32600.031496080.031496080.260.29149608FF33.552597.552200438.8466481739300.587324992903771632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2023293865.58847.5756.5790000.240.24FF33.588599.588200438.8466481739300.588846788146931632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023293865.49847.60656.5520000.240.24FF33.498602.498200438.8466481739300.585039844245991632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:09FORECAST2023293865.1247.5756.3450000.240.24FF33.12599.12200438.8466481739300.568967380228371632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023293868.50452.41260.4580000.240.24FF36.504598.504200438.8466481739300.705856606096581642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 20:00:05FORECAST2023293868.50452.41260.4580000.240.24FF36.504597.504200438.8466481739300.705856606096581642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023293870.01653.92461.970000.240.24FF38.016600.016200438.8466481739300.759773575272461642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 12:00:09FORECAST2023293868.84651.7160.2780000.240.24FF36.846588.846200438.8466481739300.718527003152451642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023293870.05251.31460.6830000.240.24FF38.052596.052200438.8466481739300.760988380391421642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023293871.3353.34862.3390000.240.24FF39.33595.33200438.8466481739300.801876590682751642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023293868.39650.1859.2880000.240.24FF36.396589.396200438.8466481739300.701801421970091642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023293868.82850.8159.8190000.240.24FF36.828593.828200438.8466481739300.717866747483951642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023293871.22251.06261.1420000.240.24FF39.222593.222200438.8466481739300.798593434394541642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023293869.47649.49659.4860000.240.24FF37.476588.476200438.8466481739300.741154786670011642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023293869.99849.42459.7110000.250.25FF37.998595.998200438.8466481739300.759164915273181642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 04:00:16FORECAST2023293861.10643.64652.3760000.240.24FF29.106575.106200438.8466481739300.396564201922541622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2023293863.73445.4154.5720000.230.23FF31.734574.734200438.8466481739300.509254667607231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:05FORECAST2023293865.62445.96855.7960000.230.23FF33.624580.624200438.8466481739300.59036724783811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2023293866.93844.79855.8680000.230.23FF34.938573.938200438.8466481739300.644761711694961632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:08FORECAST2023293863.30242.15252.7270000.230.23FF31.302567.302200438.8466481739300.490536685691791622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023293863.42842.11652.7720000.230.23FF31.428569.428200438.8466481739300.495995777711591622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2023293861.1637.9449.550000.230.23FF29.16564.16200438.8466481739300.398826802877521622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:08FORECAST2023293852.3439.03845.68900.019685050.019685050.230.24968505FF20.34559.34200438.8466481739300.112222040865411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023293852.3440.67646.50800.031496080.031496080.230.26149608FF20.34563.34200438.8466481739300.112222040865411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:05FORECAST2023293850.9943.08847.03900.074803190.074803190.230.30480319FF18.99560.99200438.8466481739300.0866482530840221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023293850.1847.31848.7490000.230.23FF18.18570.18200438.8466481739300.0735474809837161612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023293850.1847.31848.7490000.230.23FF18.18567.18200438.8466481739300.0735474809837161612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:11FORECAST2023293846.18445.44645.8150000.230.23FF14.184555.184200438.8466481739300.0296817660968421612415217.5DRYL