MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 2, 2023

[ Saturday, July 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, July 3, 2023 ]

DAY 275 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/03/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.703
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 420

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 182
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-03 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023275-1063.8999643.0399453.4699563.051055001.481.48FF31.89996419.89996182452.79029938917 28.5489060702530.7027725264799616 4131124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:02FORECAST2023275-962.11442.67452.3940001.481.48FF30.114418.114183428.2326607511500.644981969756011631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:02FORECAST2023275-961.41242.11651.7640001.481.48FF29.412417.412183428.2326607511500.621221104388391631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:02FORECAST2023275-960.36842.65651.5120001.481.48FF28.368416.368183428.2326607511500.585046961090021631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:09FORECAST2023275-961.17842.85452.0160001.481.48FF29.178417.178183428.2326607511500.61319271263191631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:02FORECAST2023275-1062.45643.21452.8350001.481.48FF30.456417.456182427.5866983106800.656363228175711631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:02FORECAST2023275-1061.8842.36852.1240001.481.48FF29.88415.88182427.5866983106800.637118864630931631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:03FORECAST2023275-1062.00642.33252.1690001.481.48FF30.006416.006182427.5866983106800.641360272513831631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:02FORECAST2023275-1061.741.12651.4130001.481.48FF29.7415.7182427.5866983106800.631030547287721631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023275-1062.54642.00852.2770001.481.48FF30.546415.546182427.5866983106800.65933540428521631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 04:00:17FORECAST2023275-1063.37441.95452.6640001.481.48FF31.374417.374182427.5866983106800.686196936081491631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023275-1061.6142.87252.2410001.481.48FF29.61412.61182427.5866983106800.627973908677341631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:04FORECAST2023275-1062.54643.48453.0150001.481.48FF30.546416.546182427.5866983106800.65933540428521631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023275-1061.41243.28652.3490001.481.48FF29.412414.412182427.5866983106800.621221104388391631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023275-1062.31243.10652.7090001.481.48FF30.312415.312182427.5866983106800.651587655009291631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:05FORECAST2023275-1063.10442.94453.0240001.481.48FF31.104418.104182427.5866983106800.677536822281811631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:10FORECAST2023275-1061.5242.852.160001.481.48FF29.52414.52182427.5866983106800.624909187014241631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023275-1061.95243.77252.8620001.481.48FF29.952409.952182427.5866983106800.639544623836691631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2023275-1062.31243.84453.0780001.481.48FF30.312412.312182427.5866983106800.651587655009291631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023275-1062.76243.7953.2760001.481.48FF30.762414.762182427.5866983106800.666428116669311631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2023275-1061.95242.54852.250001.481.48FF29.952410.952182427.5866983106800.639544623836691631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023275-1062.18643.44852.8170001.481.48FF30.186414.186182427.5866983106800.647389205045881631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:16FORECAST2023275-1060.6243.01651.8180001.481.48FF28.62409.62182427.5866983106800.593857637769871631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023275-1062.61843.75453.1860001.511.51FF30.618410.618182427.5866983106800.661706057833591631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023275-1062.65444.11453.3840001.491.49FF30.654411.654182427.5866983106800.66288899386081631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023275-1061.86244.1553.0060001.491.49FF29.862407.862182427.5866983106800.636511560088141631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023275-1061.53843.46652.5020001.491.49FF29.538408.538182427.5866983106800.625522769391641631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:07FORECAST2023275-1062.3344.36653.3480001.521.52FF30.33410.33182427.5866983106800.65218593559471631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023275-1060.8944.3352.610001.491.49FF28.89402.89182427.5866983106800.603245083201391631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023275-1062.7845.30254.0410001.531.53FF30.78407.78182427.5866983106800.667016544762151631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023275-1061.744.27652.9880001.511.51FF29.7403.7182427.5866983106800.631030547287721631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:07FORECAST2023275-1061.48444.47452.9790001.521.52FF29.484404.484182427.5866983106800.62368107527621631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:09FORECAST2023275-1063.30242.96253.1320001.511.51FF31.302408.302182427.5866983106800.683897317171971631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023275-1062.8743.53853.2040001.521.52FF30.87406.87182427.5866983106800.669952499835291631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:07FORECAST2023275-1062.72644.07853.40216.8493128001.491.49FF30.726406.726182434.721868155467.32476473755160.66525003340939163131227DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:21FORECAST2023275-1060.87243.6152.24116.628027866667001.481.48FF28.872405.872182434.630125865827.22704184458960.60262104607983163131227DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:09FORECAST2023275-1065.19244.99655.0940001.591.59FF33.192408.192182427.5866983106800.741692645518671641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023275-1064.41846.5855.4990001.581.58FF32.418407.418182427.5866983106800.718696236491981641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:07FORECAST2023275-1061.93445.96853.9510001.591.59FF29.934402.934182427.5866983106800.638938705657721631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023275-1061.48445.48253.4830001.621.62FF29.484406.484182427.5866983106800.62368107527621631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:21FORECAST2023275-1065.24647.64256.4440001.541.54FF33.246411.246182427.5866983106800.743259960088391641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2023275-1075.41649.4662.4380001.571.57FF43.416413.416182427.5866983106800.941674032219941651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 20:00:05FORECAST2023275-1075.36247.28261.3220001.561.56FF43.362418.362182427.5866983106800.941104441178121651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023275-1073.56247.9360.7460001.51.5FF41.562412.562182427.5866983106800.91951880651061651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 12:00:05FORECAST2023275-1074.06649.40661.7360001.421.42FF42.066415.066182427.5866983106800.926088581841521651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023275-1070.10648.14659.1260001.421.42FF38.106405.106182427.5866983106800.862278873084211651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 04:00:10FORECAST2023275-1076.2848.27262.2760001.431.43FF44.28415.28182427.5866983106800.950213101669571651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 00:00:09FORECAST2023275-1074.78652.62863.7070001.481.48FF42.786416.786182427.5866983106800.934754881769991651315145DRYM
2023-06-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023275-1073.32851.74662.5370001.471.47FF41.328413.328182427.5866983106800.916323084481341651315145DRYM
2023-06-24 16:00:06FORECAST2023275-1058.31642.00850.1620001.441.44FF26.316397.316182427.5866983106800.512096003946781631215215DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023275-1059.2743.35851.3140001.421.42FF27.27407.27182427.5866983106800.546213279499451631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:07FORECAST2023275-1058.78443.7951.2870001.411.41FF26.784390.784182427.5866983106800.528859449365811631215215DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023275-1057.70442.51250.1080001.491.49FF25.704387.704182427.5866983106800.49014688000581621215212.5DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:07FORECAST2023275-1066.52444.34855.4360001.481.48FF34.524396.524182427.5866983106800.778863278418551641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023275-1066.90244.27655.5890001.471.47FF34.902395.902182427.5866983106800.788826714527821641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:06FORECAST2023275-1067.71246.4957.1010001.531.53FF35.712404.712182427.5866983106800.809271240995361641315220DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:09FORECAST2023275-1069.27846.54457.9110001.511.51FF37.278397.278182427.5866983106800.84520956817681641215135DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:07FORECAST2023275-1070.28647.22858.7570001.691.69FF38.286402.286182427.5866983106800.86581323984151651315145DRYM
2023-06-23 04:00:25FORECAST2023275-1068.52244.3356.4260001.441.44FF36.522399.522182427.5866983106800.828455958397031641315140DRYM
2023-06-23 00:00:07FORECAST2023275-1050.23445.24847.7410001.51.5FF18.234369.234182427.5866983106800.243100503816891611215210DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:07FORECAST2023275-1051.85446.77849.3162.5036936001.521.52FF19.854372.854182428.666349018121.0732491945720.290923621909071621214210DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:07FORECAST2023275-1058.78444.07851.4311.7383384001.481.48FF26.784389.784182428.337038440410.744594722063240.528859449365811631214212DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023275-1058.85652.755.7780001.551.55FF26.856414.856182427.5866983106800.531434653395411631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:09FORECAST2023275-1058.85652.755.7780001.481.48FF26.856414.856182427.5866983106800.531434653395411631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:19FORECAST2023275-1046.1344.27645.2030.25048052631578001.481.48FF14.13375.13182427.69502066880.107129273879760.1433145023626161121428DRYL