MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 16, 2023

[ Saturday, July 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, July 17, 2023 ]

DAY 289 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/17/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.797
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 628

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 196
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 4

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-17 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023289471.1699848.9599660.064970000.240.24FF39.16998628.16998196436.410569934 00.7970755541886516 42515155DRYH
2023-07-17 00:00:02FORECAST2023289465.60648.99257.2990000.240.24FF33.606622.606197437.0230652900300.610301091291081632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST2023289463.80648.16455.9850000.240.24FF31.806620.806197437.0230652900300.540555712095341632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023289463.55448.84856.2010000.240.24FF31.554620.554197437.0230652900300.530638930473981632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023289464.14849.15456.6510000.240.24FF32.148621.148197437.0230652900300.553972783755731632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 00:00:02FORECAST2023289464.79648.03856.4170000.240.24FF32.796615.796196436.41056993400.579213655333751632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:02FORECAST2023289463.48247.64255.5620000.240.24FF31.482614.482196436.41056993400.527801797585321632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:01FORECAST2023289463.46447.46255.4630000.240.24FF31.464614.464196436.41056993400.527092288232631632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023289463.93247.3955.6610000.240.24FF31.932614.932196436.41056993400.545505045462661632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023289463.01446.8554.9320000.240.24FF31.014614.014196436.41056993400.509332462805391632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023289462.31247.87655.0940000.240.24FF30.312611.312196436.41056993400.481603301485931622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023289463.48247.7555.6160000.240.24FF31.482608.482196436.41056993400.527801797585321632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023289463.51848.14655.8320000.240.24FF31.518610.518196436.41056993400.52922054941911632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:02FORECAST2023289463.73448.7456.2370000.240.24FF31.734610.734196436.41056993400.537724647135221632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023289464.74248.84856.7950000.240.24FF32.742610.742196436.41056993400.5771211627141632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023289465.348.68656.9930000.240.24FF33.3614.3196436.41056993400.59862816788461632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2023289465.69649.26257.4790000.240.24FF33.696613.696196436.41056993400.613715972246391632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023289466.03849.15457.5960000.240.24FF34.038610.038196436.41056993400.626610322179611632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023289466.03849.15457.5960000.240.24FF34.038609.038196436.41056993400.626610322179611632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023289467.3751.24259.3060000.240.24FF35.37610.37196436.41056993400.6753775648591632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:08FORECAST2023289465.0348.50656.7680000.240.24FF33.03605.03196436.41056993400.588254558749831632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023289465.49849.89257.6950000.240.24FF33.498607.498196436.41056993400.606191991233771632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023289464.86850.3657.6140000.240.24FF32.868608.868196436.41056993400.582000158427991632515225DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023289466.75849.67658.2170000.240.24FF34.758605.758196436.41056993400.653282548264021632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023289466.1149.74857.9290000.240.24FF34.11608.11196436.41056993400.629307499670011632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023289467.38850.86459.1260000.240.24FF35.388606.388196436.41056993400.676018642822781632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023289467.33450.14458.7390000.240.24FF35.334606.334196436.41056993400.67409385166631632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023289467.9465058.9730000.250.25FF35.946609.946196436.41056993400.695625727325571632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:14FORECAST2023289467.83851.74659.7920000.240.24FF35.838607.838196436.41056993400.691872083172621632515225DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023289468.1853.11460.6470000.230.23FF36.18606.18196436.41056993400.703687958785281642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023289467.67651.7159.6930000.230.23FF35.676606.676196436.41056993400.686203920662271632515225DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023289467.11850.86458.9910000.230.23FF35.118601.118196436.41056993400.666348653925441632515225DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:07FORECAST2023289465.35450.64858.0010000.230.23FF33.354600.354196436.41056993400.60069482614061632515225DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023289466.12850.43258.280000.230.23FF34.128600.128196436.41056993400.629980808600371632515225DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2023289465.78651.72858.7570000.230.23FF33.786595.786196436.41056993400.617122070011521632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023289466.0025058.0010000.230.23FF34.002594.002196436.41056993400.625259395158811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:04FORECAST2023289466.43450.70258.5680000.230.23FF34.434597.434196436.41056993400.641364629472551632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023289464.90449.22657.0650000.230.23FF32.904593.904196436.41056993400.583391877325341632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023289464.38248.72256.5520000.230.23FF32.382594.382196436.41056993400.563118350979841632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023289463.3246.8555.0850000.230.23FF31.32596.32196436.41056993400.521413307319081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:10FORECAST2023289463.15847.58855.3730000.230.23FF31.158588.158196436.41056993400.51501931058061632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023289461.3447.33654.3380000.070.07FF29.34584.34196436.41056993400.443383730212261622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:05FORECAST2023289461.50246.45453.9780000.050.05FF29.502582.502196436.41056993400.449726878212021622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023289465.24649.53257.3890000.070.07FF33.246594.246196436.41056993400.59655874749491632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023289468.2750.39659.3330000.050.05FF36.27595.27196436.41056993400.706762554665661642415150DRYMH
2023-07-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023289468.3650.61259.48600000FF36.36597.36196436.41056993400.709822293538361642415150DRYMH
2023-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023289473.11255.464.25600000FF41.112614.112196436.41056993400.847004045306461642515155DRYH
2023-07-09 00:00:09FORECAST2023289473.86857.75865.81300000FF41.868616.868196436.41056993400.864031085854021652515160DRYH
2023-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023289474.55258.60466.57800000FF42.552621.552196436.41056993400.878279951753191652515160DRYH
2023-07-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023289471.36656.15663.76100000FF39.366613.366196436.41056993400.802515945483421642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 12:00:08FORECAST2023289472.39256.01264.2020000.010.01FF40.392609.392196436.41056993400.829529878875551642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023289472.5956.0364.310000.040.04FF40.59608.59196436.41056993400.834457720904821642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 04:00:16FORECAST2023289466.81249.51458.1630000.010.01FF34.812606.812196436.41056993400.655254590211971632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023289465.24648.00256.6240000.060.06FF33.246598.246196436.41056993400.59655874749491632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023289467.24450.12658.6850000.060.06FF35.244600.244196436.41056993400.670875560357511632515225DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:06FORECAST2023289465.85848.68657.2720000.040.04FF33.858595.858196436.41056993400.619840458224011632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:06FORECAST2023289465.06646.79655.93100000FF33.066599.066196436.41056993400.589641445561391632515225DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:07FORECAST2023289464.4946.59855.5440000.040.04FF32.49585.49196436.41056993400.56732833567151632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023289468.43243.19655.81400000FF36.432596.432196436.41056993400.712259273553371642415150DRYMH
2023-07-07 00:00:05FORECAST2023289449.4642.67446.06700000FF17.46579.46196436.41056993400.0934939564976081612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:07FORECAST2023289446.47241.79244.1320000.020.02FF14.472579.472196436.41056993400.053021441731321612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:07FORECAST2023289445.3240.53242.92600000FF13.32594.32196436.41056993400.0417482436348361612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:09FORECAST2023289447.64241.4544.5460000.050.05FF15.642597.642196436.41056993400.0668060142141751612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:10FORECAST2023289447.78641.64844.71700000FF15.786607.786196436.41056993400.0686780615760691612515220DRYL
2023-07-06 04:00:11FORECAST2023289443.12440.65841.89100000FF11.124583.124196436.41056993400.025633856697111612415217.5DRYL