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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 14, 2023

[ Thursday, July 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 15, 2023 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/15/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.796
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 604

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-15 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023287269.8799248.4899859.184950000.260.26FF37.87992603.87992194435.17857461327 00.7959567140621416 42515155DRYH
2023-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2023287265.13845.60855.3730000.260.26FF33.138599.138195435.7957426677800.641421731503971632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:01FORECAST2023287265.80446.45456.1290000.260.26FF33.804599.804195435.7957426677800.665515531836551632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2023287267.67645.64456.660000.260.26FF35.676601.676195435.7957426677800.72944102504931642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:07FORECAST2023287267.3745.6856.5250000.260.26FF35.37601.37195435.7957426677800.719419223114431642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2023287266.90245.66256.2820000.260.26FF34.902596.902194435.1785746132700.703753313821991642415225DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:01FORECAST2023287266.90245.66256.2820000.260.26FF34.902595.902194435.1785746132700.703753313821991642415225DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:02FORECAST2023287266.52445.4155.9670000.260.26FF34.524595.524194435.1785746132700.690814903992491632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:07FORECAST2023287265.4844.90655.1930000.260.26FF33.48594.48194435.1785746132700.653871831344881632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST2023287266.48846.0456.2640000.260.26FF34.488595.488194435.1785746132700.689569899876911632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:08FORECAST2023287266.36246.11256.2370000.260.26FF34.362596.362194435.1785746132700.685195343819921632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023287266.63246.14856.390000.260.26FF34.632591.632194435.1785746132700.694536757143571632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2023287266.6545.42856.0390000.260.26FF34.65593.65194435.1785746132700.695155131830511632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2023287265.85846.23856.0480000.260.26FF33.858590.858194435.1785746132700.667441143956671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023287265.9346.65256.2910000.260.26FF33.93590.93194435.1785746132700.670001766598061632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023287266.6546.56256.606000.010.260.27FF34.65593.65194435.1785746132700.695155131830511632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023287265.9346.83256.3810000.260.26FF33.93592.93194435.1785746132700.670001766598061632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023287265.9346.90456.4170000.250.25FF33.93590.93194435.1785746132700.670001766598061632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023287266.21845.96856.0930000.250.25FF34.218592.218194435.1785746132700.680163896043481632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023287265.2145.28455.2470000.250.25FF33.21588.21194435.1785746132700.644055851870591632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023287265.28244.83455.0580000.250.25FF33.282588.282194435.1785746132700.646683116776231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023287265.26445.17655.220000.250.25FF33.264587.264194435.1785746132700.646026949422321632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST2023287264.3145.17654.7430000.250.25FF32.31585.31194435.1785746132700.610674135695891632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023287262.88844.31253.60000.250.25FF30.888583.888194435.1785746132700.556322157431381632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023287263.51844.34853.9330000.250.25FF31.518585.518194435.1785746132700.580597279459921632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2023287263.48241.79252.6370000.250.25FF31.482585.482194435.1785746132700.579217453687261632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023287263.30244.81654.0590000.250.25FF31.302586.302194435.1785746132700.572304049399871632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023287262.76244.9653.8610000.250.25FF30.762588.762194435.1785746132700.551438622379671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:09FORECAST2023287262.83443.48453.1590000.250.25FF30.834581.834194435.1785746132700.554230216720141632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023287264.23844.92454.581000.070.020.09FF32.238580.238194435.1785746132700.607964203314691632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023287263.84245.15854.50000.070.07FF31.842577.842194435.1785746132700.592969184707331632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023287265.06645.44655.2560000.090.09FF33.066584.066194435.1785746132700.638780869227841632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023287264.56244.20454.3830000.070.07FF32.562579.562194435.1785746132700.620115797733271632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023287264.47244.79854.6350000.020.02FF32.472582.472194435.1785746132700.616751659931081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2023287266.09245.26655.6790000.020.02FF34.092592.092194435.1785746132700.675734001107041632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:08FORECAST2023287267.4647.71457.5870000.020.02FF35.46592.46194435.1785746132700.722385356274831642415225DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023287267.24446.54456.8940000.020.02FF35.244595.244194435.1785746132700.715241079290571642415225DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023287266.99246.47256.7320000.020.02FF34.992590.992194435.1785746132700.706796936306541642415225DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:08FORECAST2023287265.60644.13254.8690000.030.03FF33.606587.606194435.1785746132700.658417977818911632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023287265.19245.24855.220000.060.06FF33.192587.192194435.1785746132700.643397960059481632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:16FORECAST2023287264.97644.0654.5180000.030.03FF32.976594.976194435.1785746132700.635470485126981632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023287261.39442.90852.151000.030.050.08FF29.394589.394194435.1785746132700.498071641288421622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2023287262.61843.2552.934000.030.050.08FF30.618586.618194435.1785746132700.545847923486861632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:06FORECAST2023287265.64245.66255.652000.020.040.06FF33.642584.642194435.1785746132700.659712704659761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:06FORECAST2023287267.11844.43855.7780000.020.02FF35.118590.118194435.1785746132700.71103350444381642415225DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:07FORECAST2023287265.26445.2355.2470000.060.06FF33.264579.264194435.1785746132700.646026949422321632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:14FORECAST2023287265.2146.3155.760000.020.02FF33.21588.21194435.1785746132700.644055851870591632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023287268.23446.38257.3080000.020.02FF36.234586.234194435.1785746132700.747244082480561642415150DRYMH
2023-07-06 20:00:06FORECAST2023287266.45247.67857.0650000.040.04FF34.452590.452194435.1785746132700.688322721937411632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:07FORECAST2023287269.72849.44259.5850000.020.02FF37.728603.728194435.1785746132700.791708743397661642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 12:00:09FORECAST2023287271.11448.1159.6120000.070.07FF39.114605.114194435.1785746132700.828518088399751642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 08:00:09FORECAST2023287271.97849.24460.6110000.020.02FF39.978613.978194435.1785746132700.849221725352791652515160DRYH
2023-07-06 04:00:10FORECAST2023287266.05648.09257.0740000.020.02FF34.056596.056194435.1785746132700.674463702011861632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023287265.91245.28455.5980000.020.02FF33.912592.912194435.1785746132700.669362350804171632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023287266.05646.0456.0480000.020.02FF34.056595.056194435.1785746132700.674463702011861632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023287265.19247.44456.3180000.080.08FF33.192591.192194435.1785746132700.643397960059481632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:09FORECAST2023287272.15846.7659.4590000.030.03FF40.158600.158194435.1785746132700.853316786212831652515160DRYH
2023-07-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023287266.00247.06656.5340000.030.03FF34.002585.002194435.1785746132700.672554454567221632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:10FORECAST2023287268.07245.55456.8130000.020.02FF36.072591.072194435.1785746132700.742139661381291642415150DRYMH
2023-07-05 00:00:09FORECAST2023287248.68644.27646.4810000.060.06FF16.686560.686194435.1785746132700.105415418945471612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:08FORECAST2023287248.68644.20446.4450000.020.02FF16.686562.686194435.1785746132700.105415418945471612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:05FORECAST2023287251.51246.3148.9110000.020.02FF19.512555.512194435.1785746132700.165054739863561612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023287254.84248.41651.6290000.020.02FF22.842584.842194435.1785746132700.258728995453491622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:09FORECAST2023287254.71648.25451.4850000.020.02FF22.716579.716194435.1785746132700.254747290620231622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:23FORECAST2023287247.8445.7746.8050000.020.02FF15.84555.84194435.1785746132700.0910397073094771612415217.5DRYL