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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 10, 2023

[ Sunday, July 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 11, 2023 ]

DAY 283 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/11/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.266
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 590

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 190
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-11 04:00:05OBSERVATION2023283-254.3700445.1599849.76501000.230.190.42FF22.37004590.37004190432.68631576425 00.2656732222486816 21425235DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2023283-153.83442.06247.948000.230.190.42FF21.834589.834191433.3129364310400.250195543042781621425235DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:02FORECAST2023283-153.88843.21448.551000.230.190.42FF21.888589.888191433.3129364310400.25173282031841621425235DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:01FORECAST2023283-154.87843.84449.361000.230.190.42FF22.878590.878191433.3129364310400.280774742699591621425235DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:07FORECAST2023283-154.2342.96248.596000.230.190.42FF22.23590.23191433.3129364310400.261583399559331621425235DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2023283-254.84242.06248.4520000.190.19FF22.842586.842190432.6863157642500.279690963159041621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2023283-253.52842.45847.993000.050.190.24FF21.528586.528190432.6863157642500.241579039672831611415215DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:01FORECAST2023283-255.41842.90849.16300.023622060.073622060.190.26362206FF23.418588.418190432.6863157642500.297270092065381621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023283-254.82443.19649.01000.050.190.24FF22.824587.824190432.6863157642500.279149834863981621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2023283-255.6743.32249.4960000.190.19FF23.67588.67190432.6863157642500.305116382710591621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:06FORECAST2023283-256.55244.34850.450000.190.19FF24.552592.552190432.6863157642500.333271214518291621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023283-256.6644.72650.6930000.190.19FF24.66590.66190432.6863157642500.336788444820461621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2023283-256.98444.36650.6750000.190.19FF24.984591.984190432.6863157642500.347424986314061621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:06FORECAST2023283-255.92243.57449.7480000.190.19FF23.922590.922190432.6863157642500.313053204109221621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:06FORECAST2023283-256.17443.46649.8200.007874020.007874020.190.19787402FF24.174590.174190432.6863157642500.321077537061341621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023283-255.79643.77249.78400.035433090.035433090.190.22543309FF23.796591.796190432.6863157642500.309073662846651621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:14FORECAST2023283-257.52444.34850.93600.007874020.007874020.190.19787402FF25.524594.524190432.6863157642500.365418657570721621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2023283-257.79444.6951.24200.031496080.031496080.190.22149608FF25.794591.794190432.6863157642500.374530745541591621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2023283-256.87643.71850.29700.031496080.031496080.190.22149608FF24.876589.876190432.6863157642500.343865604157231621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023283-256.19243.64649.91900.023622060.023622060.190.21362206FF24.192587.192190432.6863157642500.321653970079831621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023283-256.51644.63650.5760000.190.19FF24.516588.516190432.6863157642500.33210203379971621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023283-254.42843.19648.81200.003937010.043937010.190.23393701FF22.428584.428190432.6863157642500.267375349548461621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:13FORECAST2023283-255.70644.294500000.190.19FF23.706585.706190432.6863157642500.306244740707311621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023283-256.343.7950.0450000.190.19FF24.3581.3190432.6863157642500.325121543169481621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023283-257.77644.20450.99000.020.190.21FF25.776585.776190432.6863157642500.373921024091241621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:05FORECAST2023283-258.89245.26652.0790000.190.19FF26.892588.892190432.6863157642500.412262258303711621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023283-259.61245.87852.745000.050.190.24FF27.612586.612190432.6863157642500.437476405096851621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:07FORECAST2023283-259.82846.23853.0330000.190.19FF27.828590.828190432.6863157642500.445095344950281621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 04:00:09FORECAST2023283-259.46845.80652.6370000.190.19FF27.468585.468190432.6863157642500.432409781321741621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:05FORECAST2023283-260.99846.54453.7710000.190.19FF28.998579.998190432.6863157642500.486645951973111621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023283-260.67446.61653.6450000.190.19FF28.674579.674190432.6863157642500.475105687014891621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023283-260.13446.45453.2940000.190.19FF28.134579.134190432.6863157642500.455922986866611621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:06FORECAST2023283-262.18646.454.293000.010.190.2FF30.186583.186190432.6863157642500.528982392342741631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023283-259.86446.43653.15000.010.190.2FF27.864576.864190432.6863157642500.446367220579431621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:09FORECAST2023283-263.3244.99654.1580000.190.19FF31.32581.32190432.6863157642500.569097612117241631415220DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023283-260.78248.43454.6080000.230.23FF28.782571.782190432.6863157642500.478950601388451621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:07FORECAST2023283-262.67246.52654.5990000.190.19FF30.672573.672190432.6863157642500.546234867842841631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2023283-259.59444.58252.0880000.190.19FF27.594561.594190432.6863157642500.436842498553841621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023283-263.4146.70655.0580000.190.19FF31.41570.41190432.6863157642500.572256537677371631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:06FORECAST2023283-261.55645.98653.7710000.190.19FF29.556569.556190432.6863157642500.506541629909721631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:22FORECAST2023283-261.73646.54454.140000.190.19FF29.736562.736190432.6863157642500.512958503488581631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023283-262.646.88654.7430000.190.19FF30.6553.6190432.6863157642500.54368364972281631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:08FORECAST2023283-264.9445.82455.3820000.190.19FF32.94563.94190432.6863157642500.625093169524141631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023283-268.50445.0556.7770000.190.19FF36.504569.504190432.6863157642500.738093667225611641415145DRYM
2023-07-03 12:00:05FORECAST2023283-26843.57455.7870000.190.19FF36572190432.6863157642500.723216153366881641415145DRYM
2023-07-03 09:27:28FORECAST2023283-270.44846.29258.370000.190.19FF38.448578.448190432.6863157642500.791400286318281641415145DRYM
2023-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023283-270.4346.23858.33437.0024248000.190.19FF38.43575.43190447.5067495741316.5588348486090.79093793666184164141119DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:18FORECAST2023283-270.55649.85660.20636.5552806000.190.19FF38.556573.556190447.3358439668916.3524872986480.79416172499628164141119DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:07FORECAST2023283-266.52449.67658.10000.190.19FF34.524569.524190432.6863157642500.677413285164261631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:05FORECAST2023283-268.10850.70259.4050000.190.19FF36.108578.108190432.6863157642500.726438697088891641415145DRYM
2023-07-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023283-264.45449.38856.9210000.230.23FF32.454564.454190432.6863157642500.608511880793241631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:11FORECAST2023283-265.31850.55857.938000.010.230.24FF33.318576.318190432.6863157642500.637833514441121631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:09FORECAST2023283-266.30851.24258.77500.007874020.047874020.240.28787402FF34.308576.308190432.6863157642500.670454765626751631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:12FORECAST2023283-263.7751.5357.65000.020.190.21FF31.77575.77190432.6863157642500.584844031818051631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023283-260.74646.50853.627000.030.190.22FF28.746565.746190432.6863157642500.477668727856711621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:05FORECAST2023283-261.19646.61653.906000.020.190.21FF29.196563.196190432.6863157642500.493704464451321621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:09FORECAST2023283-267.20846.61656.912000.050.190.24FF35.208572.208190432.6863157642500.699033131512551641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023283-266.30845.78856.048000.010.210.22FF34.308578.308190432.6863157642500.670454765626751631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:07FORECAST2023283-268.91845.78857.3530000.190.19FF36.918588.918190432.6863157642500.750000583710261641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:22FORECAST2023283-261.62849.40655.51700.051181130.121181130.190.31118113FF29.628586.628190432.6863157642500.509108675533871631425240DRYM
2023-07-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023283-247.37240.58643.9790000.210.21FF15.372561.372190432.6863157642500.105299677143491611415215DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:08FORECAST2023283-247.2140.58643.8980000.190.19FF15.21564.21190432.6863157642500.102680783083691611415215DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:09FORECAST2023283-250.57646.25648.4160000.20.2FF18.576566.576190432.6863157642500.167219726632861611415215DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023283-256.04850.48653.2670000.190.19FF24.048574.048190432.6863157642500.317054625181211621415217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023283-256.350.79253.546000.010.190.2FF24.3579.3190432.6863157642500.325121543169481621415217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:12FORECAST2023283-251.67449.89250.783000.010.190.2FF19.674555.674190432.6863157642500.192968564347531611415215DRYL