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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 20, 2023

[ Friday, May 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 21, 2023 ]

DAY 232 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/21/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.975
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 440

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 95 in
SWE DAY: 139
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-21 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023232-5366.9099248.4800857.69595.285760526316001.831.83FF34.90992439.90992139440.46481334389 41.9700247245540.9749229657027116 5131124.5DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2023232-5263.12247.60655.364104.22098720.03937010.03937011.831.8693701FF31.122436.122140444.5813577939546.3347080000010.94060289556096165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2023232-5262.18647.44454.815107.225120.035433090.035433091.831.86543309FF30.186435.186140445.7468031625247.7952544587180.92805305675607165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2023232-5260.15246.70653.429107.4155240.031496080.031496081.831.86149608FF28.152433.152140445.8203706378347.8880287219360.89393831743241165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:11FORECAST2023232-5259.86447.08453.474107.41609520.023622060.023622061.831.85362206FF27.864432.864140445.8205912820947.8883070752770.88829416842779165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:04FORECAST2023232-5361.6147.10254.35694.37535760.03937010.07937011.831.9093701FF29.61427.61139440.1003352777241.5346265217150.91937894331037165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2023232-5362.34847.62454.986100.09552720.059055150.059055151.831.88905515FF30.348428.348139442.3764677565244.2799057609630.93035930012555165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2023232-5364.00448.9256.46299.87885040.043307110.043307111.831.87330711FF32.004430.004139442.2908504116644.1755016815550.95079746176736165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023232-5361.95247.89454.92397.19902480.070866180.070866181.831.90086618FF29.952427.952139441.228043709742.8869355629940.92461938113399165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2023232-5363.0548.16455.60797.02869440.070866180.070866181.831.90086618FF31.05429.05139441.1602466125742.805202750.93970271927127165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:16FORECAST2023232-5362.61848.14655.38296.94811910.094488240.094488241.831.92448824FF30.618430.618139441.12816477442.7665458568740.93407642733308165132129DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023232-5361.59247.01254.30294.44726880.03937010.07937011.831.9093701FF29.592420.592139440.1291554562341.5689966520910.91909571951891165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2023232-5361.62847.13854.383100.14480640.059055150.109055151.831.93905515FF29.628420.628139442.3959332893944.3036550914130.91966142014905165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2023232-5362.16846.18454.176100.11213760.062992160.112992161.831.94299216FF30.168422.168139442.3830292206344.287910693240.92779324654264165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:04FORECAST2023232-5361.82646.95854.39297.70802880.141732360.271732361.832.10173236FF29.826420.826139441.4304693236843.1313010098750.9227196428323165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023232-5363.10447.73255.41896.96569920.106299270.146299271.831.97629927FF31.104424.104139441.1351650216442.774979718030.94037884189217165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023232-5362.90648.36255.63496.7718762315790.023622060.193622061.832.02362206FF30.906423.906139441.0579690718442.6820071939710.93787047577131165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023232-5362.90648.36255.63493.94590160.023622060.193622061.832.02362206FF30.906415.906139439.9281106093541.3294429903790.93787047577131165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2023232-5362.90648.36255.63499.63448480.023622060.193622061.832.02362206FF30.906414.906139442.1942356019644.0577948457320.93787047577131165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2023232-5361.59247.55254.572100.07728480.027559070.167559071.831.99755907FF29.592411.592139442.3692612984544.2711145497310.91909571951891165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2023232-5360.1746.16653.16897.61079040.102362260.172362261.832.00236226FF28.17411.17139441.3918188399243.0846043130580.8942841302902165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2023232-5359.61245.51852.56597.7907640.07874020.12874021.831.9587402FF27.612410.612139441.4633475352243.1710380334670.88318255561543165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2023232-5358.67646.29252.48497.99887940.07874020.09874021.841.9387402FF26.676408.676139441.546020148743.2710151781030.86275802957256165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2023232-5360.1748.2954.23113.1526600.181.872.05FF28.17405.17139447.449829609750.6301384368840.8942841302902165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2023232-5361.32249.62255.472117.02127600.231.922.15FF29.322409.322139448.9209561170552.5333031079570.91475708453359165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2023232-5359.2747.53453.402117.456007200.21.932.13FF27.27405.27139449.0853705555652.7477745173880.87598419653124165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023232-5360.47648.54254.509115.062033600.321.972.29FF28.476406.476139448.1777177058851.5682396134460.90003909131389165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2023232-5359.97249.04654.509115.130421600.422.032.45FF27.972405.972139448.2037230340951.6018835956040.89043531274708165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:17FORECAST2023232-5362.47449.33455.904114.7573801166700.271.92.17FF30.474411.474139448.06181479451.4183999960790.93211349579775165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023232-5359.61244.9652.286100.220182400.171.61.77FF27.612397.612139442.4257024768844.3399846006810.88318255561543165122128DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023232-5363.66249.04656.354104.234784800.291.872.16FF31.662407.662139444.0030321423546.2805605059060.94702348284242165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023232-5364.23847.51655.877104.490132800.21.982.18FF32.238405.238139444.1028148788146.404362103540.95325403181962165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023232-5362.18647.44454.815102.2528120.043307110.263307111.892.15330711FF30.186400.186139443.2263289439345.3211384869540.92805305675607165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023232-5364.59846.6755.634102.61905680.043307110.193307111.832.02330711FF32.598398.598139443.370149044845.4982265082530.95684082665719165122128DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:15FORECAST2023232-5362.49247.01254.752101.847367304350.03937010.04937011.831.8793701FF30.492400.492139443.0669593827845.1252033526790.93236129427069165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023232-5361.59246.86854.23102.24560960.007874020.007874021.941.94787402FF29.592402.592139443.2234993030645.3176568752870.91909571951891165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:07FORECAST2023232-5363.51848.68656.102106.3534360.003937010.0039370122.00393701FF31.518403.518139444.8289849175947.3090909783780.94536752021049165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023232-5362.38446.56254.473106.6350568001.851.85FF30.384402.384139444.9384400389647.4460358260580.93086401068358165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2023232-5364.09450.32457.209103.9510984001.951.95FF32.094400.094139443.8920996491846.1430713296140.95175418715019165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023232-5363.37449.89256.633104.35512880.015748040.015748041.891.90574804FF31.374394.374139444.0500672181146.3389019581950.94367103307794165121124DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:14FORECAST2023232-5364.83251.40458.118103.8111322087001.81.8FF32.832403.832139443.8373379313946.0752565671520.95905100348733165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023232-5367.40650.5458.973103.2087888001.861.86FF35.406399.406139443.601449010345.7835682622780.97783391507255165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023232-5369.81850.32460.071107.17482080.007874020.007874021.711.71787402FF37.818404.818139445.1480067324747.708657851030.98825406905748165131119DRYL
2023-05-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023232-5369.96250.70260.332107.491176800.021.721.74FF37.962401.962139445.2707004153147.8626715822020.98871201287768165131119DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2023232-5366.1151.38658.748105.016712001.741.74FF34.11399.11139444.3083828261646.659805478440.96955968830486165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023232-5366.27252.37659.324105.2294528001.811.81FF34.272397.272139444.3913554234546.763059160260.97071639447649165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023232-5369.0854.0561.565105.218282283330.023622060.023622061.751.77362206FF37.08400.08139444.3869998436446.7576367925920.98564600007552165131119DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023232-5365.28248.09256.687104.282057600.071.711.78FF33.282382.282139444.0215098900746.3034766699960.96304382065181165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 20:00:07FORECAST2023232-5365.69646.81456.255108.58028800.071.81.87FF33.696381.696139445.6923418543648.3934028379410.96643132227969165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023232-5362.40244.85253.627108.9156352001.781.78FF30.402373.402139445.8219343806748.5569791691630.93111531029753165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:07FORECAST2023232-5364.63446.38255.508105.9008560.019685050.019685051.621.63968505FF32.634385.634139444.6529204640447.0891249000420.95718697510782165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:07FORECAST2023232-5367.11847.06657.092104.07524080.019685050.019685051.641.65968505FF35.118400.118139443.9406540259946.2032304686640.97618071798016165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023232-5364.8546.18455.517105.34724826667001.511.51FF32.85387.85139444.4372784139846.8202443080390.95921715517222165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 00:00:08FORECAST2023232-5363.93247.76855.85105.634841600.011.561.57FF31.932377.932139444.5493400125546.9598991156110.95002125925873165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 20:00:05FORECAST2023232-5366.48848.90257.695106.874937600.031.591.62FF34.488390.488139445.0316107068547.5627256243220.97220181200982165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 16:00:05FORECAST2023232-5365.26445.75255.508107.3499144001.51.5FF33.264385.264139445.2159262050547.7938915676290.96289043722149165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023232-5364.14845.15854.653106.1509104001.581.58FF32.148384.148139444.7502226311847.2106410329020.95232106426429165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 08:00:07FORECAST2023232-5363.93246.02254.977105.6090216001.61.6FF31.932384.932139444.5392825170946.9473586893960.95002125925873165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 04:00:09FORECAST2023232-5368.39648.34458.37104.91446396667001.711.71FF36.396395.396139444.2684883662746.6101903142290.98279883431687165121118DRYL
2023-05-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023232-5354.21244.27649.244107.103619200.031.481.51FF22.212374.212139445.1203787209947.6740035406930.73386082810749164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 20:00:07FORECAST2023232-5354.08646.450.243108.559211200.031.451.48FF22.086378.086139445.6841931883148.3831244568310.72950594946373164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023232-5355.74247.8451.791108.0377896001.41.4FF23.742377.742139445.4824633629948.1289406473010.78376797078017164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023232-5346.32842.844.564107.965957600.11.381.48FF14.328363.328139445.4546517464248.0939380431770.41991993898239162122125DRYL
2023-05-10 08:00:05FORECAST2023232-5346.32842.844.564107.746328800.11.431.53FF14.328365.328139445.3695852933547.9869377745370.41991993898239162122125DRYL
2023-05-10 04:00:21FORECAST2023232-5349.47847.60648.542107.43538610.047244120.217244121.41.61724412FF17.478376.478139445.2490700322647.8355057495820.5509925909112163122126DRYL