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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 17, 2023

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DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 69.99°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.14°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 60.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.967 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 38 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 390 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.33 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 1.61 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 106 in SWE DAY: 136 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.95 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 46.97 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 1 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 1 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 16.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-18 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2023	229	-56	69.99008	50.14004	60.06506	106.03584263158	0	0.33	1.61	1.94	F	F	37.99008	389.99008	136	442.94904434367	46.968475159834	0.9673347566317	16	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2023-05-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-55	61.538	44.78	53.159	103.3114168	0	0.33	1.61	1.94	F	F	29.538	381.538	137	442.46483593178	45.711669084292	0.85092429724059	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-55	60.782	44.672	52.727	106.4000752	0	0.33	1.61	1.94	F	F	28.782	380.782	137	443.67948388643	47.207530450214	0.8336639999185	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-17 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-55	60.836	44.78	52.808	106.4146384	0	0.33	1.61	1.94	F	F	28.836	380.836	137	443.68518847924	47.214598895455	0.83493796371039	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-17 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	229	-55	61.124	45.104	53.114	106.771633	0.01181103	0.34181103	1.61	1.95181103	F	F	29.124	381.124	137	443.82496189034	47.387915947194	0.84162569961432	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-17 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	61.952	44.69	53.321	121.9312192	0.00787402	0.36787402	1.61	1.97787402	F	F	29.952	376.952	136	449.08046531833	54.756928655168	0.85985190776567	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.906	45.896	54.401	126.1446288	0.03149608	0.42149608	1.61	2.03149608	F	F	30.906	376.906	136	450.66464883079	56.848924840042	0.87902263106022	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.78	45.59	54.185	126.178872	0.03543309	0.42543309	1.61	2.03543309	F	F	30.78	376.78	136	450.6774544702	56.865972840881	0.87660177964408	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	63.32	44.816	54.068	123.9991152	0.08267721	0.47267721	1.61	2.08267721	F	F	31.32	377.32	136	449.8600841034	55.782252392619	0.88674161741874	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.492	46.418	54.455	123.93732	0.13385834	0.53385834	1.61	2.14385834	F	F	30.492	377.492	136	449.83684596294	55.7515731259	0.87094193774392	16	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-05-16 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.78	47.534	55.157	124.02508571667	0.04724412	0.39724412	1.61	2.00724412	F	F	30.78	377.78	136	449.86984925099	55.795146614699	0.87660177964408	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	61.664	44.996	53.33	108.5121536	0	0.1	1.61	1.71	F	F	29.664	366.664	136	443.92060082582	48.170780423016	0.85368061389535	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	64.31	47.228	55.769	113.510264	0.06692917	0.36692917	1.61	1.97692917	F	F	32.31	372.31	136	445.86304421595	50.610031856796	0.90376389137492	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.672	47.318	54.995	113.5720592	0.16141741	0.48141741	1.61	2.09141741	F	F	30.672	370.672	136	445.88690603462	50.640294088668	0.87450000113018	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.042	46.256	54.149	111.0334376	0.08661422	0.38661422	1.61	1.99661422	F	F	30.042	370.042	136	444.90354357411	49.399169843454	0.861743742405	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.368	46.454	53.411	111.2381096	0.10236226	0.33236226	1.61	1.94236226	F	F	28.368	366.368	136	444.98306069361	49.499074475579	0.82368731155331	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.096	46.706	54.401	110.59069930435	0.07086618	0.33086618	1.61	1.94086618	F	F	30.096	370.096	136	444.73139382478	49.18315584568	0.86287047271846	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	63.086	46.562	54.824	111.3188768	0.1574804	0.4374804	1.61	2.0474804	F	F	31.086	370.086	136	445.01442818547	49.538506305401	0.88242289149381	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	63.356	46.742	55.049	115.7076352	0.18110246	0.50110246	1.61	2.11110246	F	F	31.356	369.356	136	446.70924788638	51.687670694904	0.88739589256018	16	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-05-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.672	46.508	54.59	115.7477824	0.05118113	0.35118113	1.61	1.96118113	F	F	30.672	367.672	136	446.72466460914	51.707389271892	0.87450000113018	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	61.646	47.102	54.374	113.4294784	0.05905515	0.44905515	1.61	2.05905515	F	F	29.646	364.646	136	445.83184372736	50.570473488104	0.85328895747073	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.764	45.806	53.285	113.5343728	0.05511814	0.38511814	1.61	1.99511814	F	F	28.764	362.764	136	445.87235411944	50.62183807381	0.83323794162789	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.944	46.526	53.735	113.5482058087	0	0.3	1.61	1.91	F	F	28.944	366.944	136	445.87769564496	50.6286123506	0.83746693544368	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.422	45.302	52.862	112.87344	0	0.36	1.61	1.97	F	F	28.422	364.422	136	445.61692042582	50.298314730669	0.82500962445782	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.764	46.31	53.537	117.1330976	0.00787402	0.20787402	1.61	1.81787402	F	F	28.764	363.764	136	447.2556705803	52.388442114236	0.83323794162789	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.162	44.204	51.683	117.3439688	0	0.22	1.61	1.83	F	F	27.162	361.162	136	447.33633601397	52.492221056329	0.79252924168054	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	58.946	44.24	51.593	114.8821976	0	0.24	1.61	1.85	F	F	26.946	361.946	136	446.39192708322	51.282485574219	0.78662426364587	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.036	44.15	51.593	115.0865744	0	0.31	1.61	1.92	F	F	27.036	360.036	136	446.47055709956	51.382766987048	0.78909646755656	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.252	42.764	51.008	115.31864868333	0	0.25	1.61	1.86	F	F	27.252	358.252	136	446.55979370965	51.496671966905	0.79496091736972	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.198	43.592	51.395	113.4876728	0	0.21	1.61	1.82	F	F	27.198	348.198	136	445.85431983456	50.598969165851	0.79350394681176	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.072	42.98	51.026	117.6243304	0	0.3	1.61	1.91	F	F	27.072	347.072	136	447.44351701179	52.630244080332	0.79008063642199	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	57.848	44.078	50.963	117.6619192	0	0.28	1.61	1.89	F	F	25.848	343.848	136	447.45788124183	52.648753068079	0.75513489499175	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.224	45.14	52.682	115.2088072	0	0.12	1.61	1.73	F	F	28.224	351.224	136	446.5175642998	51.442755976829	0.82013040654386	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.402	45.878	54.14	114.1764928	0	0.14	1.61	1.75	F	F	30.402	357.402	136	446.1201068037	50.936429162407	0.86913699857053	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	60.476	45.446	52.961	115.02843066667	0	0.01	1.61	1.62	F	F	28.476	350.476	136	446.44819157828	51.354234851221	0.82632564285828	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.252	43.88	51.566	114.9841208	0	0.06	1.61	1.67	F	F	27.252	342.252	136	446.43114516306	51.332492724312	0.79496091736972	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	58.64	43.61	51.125	116.7286152	0	0.09	1.61	1.7	F	F	26.64	348.64	136	447.10082128	52.189459722798	0.77809367522745	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	58.298	43.286	50.792	116.6680992	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.298	348.298	136	447.07764006018	52.159698460643	0.76833343982636	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.036	45.734	52.385	115.0793328	0	0.08	1.61	1.69	F	F	27.036	350.036	136	446.46777173165	51.379213287581	0.78909646755656	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.324	45.842	52.583	114.6575904	0	0.1	1.61	1.71	F	F	27.324	351.324	136	446.3054667204	51.172309396508	0.79689402961658	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-11 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	59.198	44.096	51.647	114.83574236667	0.00787402	0.20787402	1.61	1.81787402	F	F	27.198	352.198	136	446.37404863753	51.259695248506	0.79350394681176	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.726	48.11	55.418	113.928348	0	0.08	1.51	1.59	F	F	30.726	347.726	136	446.02441163536	50.814824385289	0.87555398349781	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	64.472	47.696	56.084	115.9281904	0	0.07	1.49	1.56	F	F	32.472	348.472	136	446.79392276899	51.796010948327	0.90636071729413	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.87	48.326	55.598	115.4530168	0	0.02	1.49	1.51	F	F	30.87	346.87	136	446.6114365546	51.562637687611	0.87833438406495	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	62.708	48.506	55.607	114.4562248	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	30.708	347.708	136	446.2279110411	51.073562098154	0.87520334383848	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	64.112	49.424	56.768	114.6441688	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	32.112	346.112	136	446.30029864369	51.165726773198	0.90051882725989	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	64.958	48.182	56.57	114.1673237	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	32.958	351.958	136	446.11657188259	50.931935070053	0.91384136984161	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	68.108	51.278	59.693	113.1602576	0	0	1.19	1.19	F	F	36.108	364.108	136	445.72782079174	50.43867502028	0.95194330346627	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	67.802	51.08	59.441	115.040288	0	0	1.18	1.18	F	F	35.802	348.802	136	446.45275287862	51.360053269549	0.94896599450833	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	66.794	51.746	59.27	114.1505552	0	0.01	1.2	1.21	F	F	34.794	358.794	136	446.11010698666	50.923716392858	0.93811373619245	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	68.36	53.528	60.944	113.0327312	0.02362206	0.02362206	1.21	1.23362206	F	F	36.36	366.36	136	445.67852164346	50.376260538539	0.95428972993985	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	68.27	54.122	61.196	113.0200376	0.07480319	0.07480319	1.24	1.31480319	F	F	36.27	360.27	136	445.6736136784	50.370048575261	0.95346248666994	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	68.288	54.158	61.223	112.59542487143	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	36.288	367.288	136	445.5093464683	50.162314149792	0.95362888648548	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	61.466	44.672	53.069	115.33113398167	0	0.11	1.38	1.49	F	F	29.466	365.466	136	446.56459303372	51.502800910642	0.84933382908685	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	61.16	44.582	52.871	116.43281913034	0	0.09	1.4	1.49	F	F	29.16	356.16	136	446.98747996432	52.044012408212	0.84244902239314	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	66.002	48.2	57.101	115.8313456	0.08267721	0.08267721	1.39	1.47267721	F	F	34.002	363.002	136	446.75674824889	51.74843530555	0.92839053256056	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	63.338	43.628	53.483	116.6361430453	0	0.05	1.38	1.43	F	F	31.338	352.338	136	447.06539751856	52.143983655578	0.8870690921353	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	63.986	42.494	53.24	117.97738035859	0	0.05	1.44	1.49	F	F	31.986	341.986	136	447.57837791862	52.804124531985	0.89841270389974	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	74.102	47.912	61.007	115.76001402785	0.0393701	0.0393701	1.47	1.5093701	F	F	42.102	364.102	136	446.72936130211	51.713397130984	0.98727851630005	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	53.51	49.136	51.323	119.8165679458	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	21.51	341.51	136	448.27897315643	53.71124804587	0.61019720497288	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-07 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	50.018	46.616	48.317	118.78607633081	0	0.07	1.41	1.48	F	F	18.018	347.018	136	447.8868348168	53.202719748114	0.47969661297601	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	56.336	50.126	53.231	120.06932101831	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	24.336	344.336	136	448.3749979521	53.836081565694	0.70798536423453	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	56.336	50.126	53.231	119.55147594741	0	0	1.37	1.37	F	F	24.336	343.336	136	448.17819435536	53.580364622626	0.70798536423453	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	229	-56	40.136	37.724	38.93	120.66259022259	0.01181103	0.07181103	1.12	1.19181103	F	F	8.136	320.136	136	448.60014806034	54.129255839197	0.16180924449697	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L