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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 30, 2023

[ Saturday, April 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, May 1, 2023 ]

DAY 212 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/01/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.806
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 149 in
SWE DAY: 119
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 66.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -73

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-01 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023212-7352.3799634.8499443.61495148.92358666667003.923.92TF20.37996168.37996119449.66871627016 66.9662780387480.8058179522606216 4111123DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:02FORECAST2023212-7245.06833.67439.371149.97604960.015748040.015748043.923.93574804TF13.068161.068120450.6251563144567.5829807944240.54225777778687163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:01FORECAST2023212-7245.51833.36839.443150.972212003.923.92TF13.518161.518120450.9973278127968.0880641859870.56067213625327163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2023212-7244.00632.48638.246151.0892096003.923.92TF12.006160.006120451.0409769673868.1474247072130.49850999433561162111122DRYL
2023-04-30 04:00:13FORECAST2023212-7244.97832.88238.93150.71152211667003.923.92TF12.978160.978120450.9000236584667.9558288880080.53856269899057163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023212-7344.9633.40439.182150.7632304003.923.92TF12.96154.96119450.3597401315267.8976892643330.53782327325034163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2023212-7344.31233.22438.768154.98529920.007874020.007874023.923.92787402TF12.312153.312119451.9335162431970.0430512334580.51113669721466163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:02FORECAST2023212-7344.04233.11638.579154.99789440.015748040.015748043.923.93574804TF12.042153.042119451.9381859002170.0494672134890.4999956559505163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023212-7344.16833.838.984152.69838480.035433090.035433093.923.95543309TF12.168153.168119451.0831642395768.8796705898550.50519533686785163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2023212-7343.89834.05238.975152.72200080.07874020.07874023.923.9987402TF11.898151.898119451.0919707304868.8916683147740.49405321588211162111122DRYL
2023-04-29 04:00:11FORECAST2023212-7344.8734.68239.776152.092067733330.102362260.102362263.924.02236226TF12.87153.87119450.8568854593868.5717559613280.53412423433106163112125WETL
2023-04-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023212-7343.86233.67438.768151.1368360.122047310.122047313.924.04204731TF11.862144.862119450.499683263968.0870967475080.49256776052924162112124WETL
2023-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2023212-7344.74433.7139.227155.32830240.082677210.082677213.924.00267721TF12.744143.744119452.0606309685870.2178103902220.52894069454483163111122.5WETL
2023-04-28 16:00:03FORECAST2023212-7344.83434.57439.704155.34109440.059055150.059055153.923.97905515TF12.834142.834119452.0653694577170.2243292319010.53264377481832163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2023212-7345.8634.08839.974153.5250240.035433090.035433093.923.95543309TF13.86143.86119451.3911067997669.299830504820.57458192493746163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023212-7346.16634.84440.505153.25757280.011811030.011811033.923.93181103TF14.166146.166119451.2915456789569.1638469159160.58694985807081163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-28 04:00:12FORECAST2023212-7346.56234.77240.667153.549046238320.023622060.023622063.923.94362206TF14.562145.562119451.4000459847869.3120465328980.60282651660057163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023212-7347.31835.27641.297154.34408640.047244120.047244123.923.96724412TF15.318141.318119451.6955897751869.7165431347590.63264800333618163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023212-7345.48234.5240.001158.1923336003.923.92TF13.482137.482119453.1177101697771.6797479672440.55920327064462163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023212-7343.03432.937.967158.657665654440.007874020.007874023.923.92787402TF11.034132.034119453.2887335544271.9177323332040.45847231520015162111122DRYL
2023-04-27 12:00:05FORECAST2023212-7342.49431.0136.752156.810515098310.019685050.019685053.923.93968505TF10.494134.494119452.6086577204870.9737967551040.43638407944048162111122DRYL
2023-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023212-7342.31430.88436.599156.789381079120.03937010.03937013.923.9593701TF10.314135.314119452.600858212570.9630084350170.42906173915386162111122DRYL
2023-04-27 04:00:11FORECAST2023212-7343.35831.8237.589156.484516703490.03937010.03937013.923.9593701TF11.358135.358119452.4883014470270.807413165920.47179156582799162111122DRYL
2023-04-27 00:00:04FORECAST2023212-7342.3531.02836.689158.3258432003.923.92TF10.35132.35119453.1667996028671.7480156573680.43052433942701162111122DRYL
2023-04-26 20:00:03FORECAST2023212-7341.50430.235.852160.8103056003.923.92TF9.504129.504119454.0772676651773.020304179250.39644724192311162111122DRYL
2023-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2023212-7341.8130.63236.221160.8331344003.923.92TF9.81129.81119454.0856070063973.0320114607640.40869638520433162111122DRYL
2023-04-26 12:00:07FORECAST2023212-7342.56631.67637.121159.784611128550.228346580.228346583.924.14834658TF10.566129.566119453.7020829689872.4946108954130.43931927632527162112124WETL
2023-04-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023212-7341.73830.36236.05160.10533325430.271653690.271653693.924.19165369TF9.738126.738119453.8195036897272.6589228755450.40580572105498162112124WETL
2023-04-26 04:00:13FORECAST2023212-7340.89229.37235.132160.344048964710.31496080.31496083.924.2349608TF8.892119.892119453.9068386759972.7812603660780.37226420685208162112124WETL
2023-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023212-7340.62229.96635.294160.386556003.873.87TF8.622127.622119453.9223844716272.8030479367110.36174704989691162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2023212-7339.79429.3934.592162.0972992003.873.87TF7.794126.794119454.5466513456373.6807845435310.33016878975368162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023212-7341.10828.6734.889161.6447576003.873.87TF9.108133.108119454.3817782880973.4484324092350.38074748976154162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023212-7341.41429.2135.312160.7939912003.873.87TF9.414133.414119454.0713077324773.0119378597070.39286333166232162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023212-7342.830.79436.797160.7693912003.873.87TF10.8131.8119454.0623204596872.9993228271620.44888090491955162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 04:00:16FORECAST2023212-7341.46829.53435.501160.95455246667003.873.87TF9.468127.468119454.1299527983973.0942833143730.39501260936346162111122DRYL
2023-04-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023212-7340.11829.15634.637163.81644317944003.773.77TF8.118129.118119455.1712570610174.564536369250.34239699744188162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023212-7342.02629.35435.69159.7913344003.843.84TF10.026132.026119453.7045454315772.4980547378570.41739761467153162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023212-7340.49627.5934.043160.1831632003.843.84TF8.496127.496119453.8479838686372.698805668020.35687398324225162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023212-7343.98829.60636.797161.30289596283003.843.84TF11.988134.988119454.2571031958973.2729862571840.49776716998954162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 08:00:06FORECAST2023212-7344.13229.35436.743161.02383643149003.833.83TF12.132135.132119454.1552514078773.1298209172050.50370976518013163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-24 04:00:14FORECAST2023212-7344.07827.06835.573161.51373121083003.833.83TF12.078137.078119454.3340064662373.3811806003270.50148131762476163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-24 00:00:05FORECAST2023212-7351.837.20244.501166.50730856536003.933.93TF19.8132.8119456.1434530330375.9512186842410.78888852398296164111123DRYL
2023-04-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023212-7353.07837.8545.464166.17411429346003.853.85TF21.078137.078119456.0234317799875.7792898731020.82506299101759164111123DRYL
2023-04-23 16:00:07FORECAST2023212-7348.45233.9841.216167.45569643697003.853.85TF16.452123.452119456.4845201511876.4409332346120.67587117243301163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023212-7344.92432.1838.552168.23000070015003.833.83TF12.924117.924119456.7623732968476.8411343795280.53634403209878163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023212-7345.66233.31439.488168.63179769814003.833.83TF13.662122.662119456.9063398545477.048937469350.56653905196569163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-23 04:00:09FORECAST2023212-7347.71434.9741.342167.1175168586003.913.91TF15.714132.714119456.3629954437776.2662505847170.64796776758099163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023212-7346.97632.93639.956168.616826650550.094488240.094488243.783.87448824TF14.976130.976119456.900978262777.0411930481860.61924421315624163112125DRYL
2023-04-22 20:00:08FORECAST2023212-7346.23832.52239.38169.016846747040.110236280.110236283.73.81023628TF14.238127.238119457.0441677098877.2481640504490.58984794097939163112125DRYL
2023-04-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023212-7346.83230.14638.489169.774341286470.007874020.007874023.653.65787402FF14.832124.832119457.3149188693277.6403391115160.61355635697734163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023212-7355.68842.31449.001168.73541207647003.523.52FF23.688128.688119456.9434417570177.1025399405090.88591482363302165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-22 08:00:07FORECAST2023212-7352.98840.17246.58169.26937415511003.523.52FF20.988118.988119457.1344864346177.3788684235060.82265179953228164111123DRYL
2023-04-22 04:00:13FORECAST2023212-7352.32238.15645.239168.02905464742003.543.54FF20.322128.322119456.6903178453476.7372423741810.80416413173039164111123DRYL
2023-04-22 00:00:07FORECAST2023212-7349.47836.03242.755168.49516721134003.243.24FF17.478104.478119456.8574007207376.978264126180.71305265947702164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023212-7351.38636.33843.862167.52953123717003.243.24FF19.386102.386119456.5110387790476.4790803312440.77629238448571164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 16:00:06FORECAST2023212-7349.80238.44444.123166.92488996768003.023.02FF17.802112.802119456.2937283637576.1667804000640.7243603885878164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023212-7352.4337.77845.104167.7682201324002.872.87FF20.43105.43119456.5967326559976.6024211559670.80723893507436164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023212-7351.42236.87844.15166.95844596344002.772.77FF19.422100.422119456.3057972676276.1841067959120.77740435173548164111123DRYL
2023-04-21 04:00:16FORECAST2023212-7365.64235.5150.576164.97331755026002.662.66FF33.642116.642119455.5900442954275.1602010502850.98741586105002165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023212-7349.26238.44443.853169.41138059724002.632.63FF17.262116.262119457.1852508875777.4523845415560.70539423780675164111123DRYL
2023-04-20 20:00:05FORECAST2023212-7345.84238.1241.981164.81118257866002.562.56FF13.842115.842119455.5314257376275.0766729775610.57385198328998163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-20 16:00:07FORECAST2023212-7347.15638.76842.962163.56109378776002.552.55FF15.156125.156119455.0786549618574.4331625650240.62631783392408163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023212-7337.20231.96434.583167.43836051787002.642.64FF5.202105.202119456.4782930330976.4319769974580.23959556109049161111121.5DRYL
2023-04-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023212-7339.18233.22436.203166.62987608795002.72.7FF7.182124.182119456.1875780260376.014479599340.30756715067119162111122DRYL
2023-04-20 04:00:12FORECAST2023212-7349.60447.7548.677167.03589379001002.752.75FF17.604142.604119456.3336485827876.2240988574830.71747612330114164111123DRYL