Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 15, 2023

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DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/16/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.71°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.93°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.395 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -15 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.66 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 162 in SWE DAY: 104 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 72.43 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-16 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	197	-88	37.70996	28.14998	32.92997	162.30938666667	0.0099999999999909	0.17999999999999	6.48	6.66	T	T	5.70996	-15.29004	104	446.21987693088	72.425674543126	0.39499544475065	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-87	34.214	23.738	28.976	164.05057981905	0.03149608	0.20149608	6.48	6.68149608	T	T	2.214	-18.786	105	447.46197290677	73.40639610233	0.24923562463808	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-87	34.934	23.45	29.192	164.15017010478	0.07480319	0.24480319	6.48	6.72480319	T	T	2.934	-18.066	105	447.50002279594	73.457204863846	0.27681431078441	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-87	34.718	23.036	28.877	164.19578849772	0.08267721	0.25267721	6.48	6.73267721	T	T	2.718	-18.282	105	447.5174487397	73.480480362304	0.26838637134843	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	197	-87	33.872	22.838	28.355	164.01972941396	0.09055123	0.26055123	6.48	6.74055123	T	T	1.872	-19.128	105	447.45018411674	73.390658125056	0.23666602927032	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.664	23.468	29.066	166.39535868748	0.14960638	0.31960638	6.48	6.79960638	T	T	2.664	-22.336	104	447.78592862011	74.509500207949	0.26629970567043	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.286	23.45	28.868	166.39283562549	0.14173236	0.31173236	6.48	6.79173236	T	T	2.286	-23.714	104	447.78496659937	74.508210342934	0.25192630596659	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.944	23.252	28.598	166.4424552023	0.14960638	0.31960638	6.48	6.79960638	T	T	1.944	-24.056	104	447.80388496402	74.533578062542	0.23928297822367	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.152	23.36	28.256	166.41564712067	0.13385834	0.30385834	6.48	6.78385834	T	T	1.152	-24.848	104	447.79366419223	74.519872403085	0.21137909099584	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.07	24.026	29.048	166.37972918347	0.14566937	0.31566937	6.48	6.79566937	T	T	2.07	-22.93	104	447.77996913228	74.501509998012	0.24390037145943	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.926	24.602	29.264	165.7867231369	0.10629927	0.27629927	6.48	6.75629927	T	T	1.926	-22.074	104	447.55368265623	74.19845847543	0.23862726504251	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.962	23.432	28.697	165.72141933055	0.16535442	0.22535442	6.48	6.70535442	T	T	1.962	-22.038	104	447.52874239339	74.16509838065	0.23993967295953	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.872	22.982	28.427	165.45425781254	0.15354339	0.21354339	6.48	6.69354339	T	T	1.872	-24.128	104	447.42666729357	74.028647162593	0.23666602927032	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.008	23.558	28.283	165.49176441255	0.1574804	0.2174804	6.48	6.6974804	T	T	1.008	-23.992	104	447.44100171824	74.047800844872	0.20651819293489	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.566	23.864	28.715	165.8530923747	0.1968505	0.2568505	6.48	6.7368505	T	T	1.566	-24.434	104	447.57902558108	74.232365474679	0.22572128053154	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	32.666	23.486	28.076	165.46226040829	0.10236226	0.14236226	6.48	6.62236226	T	F	0.666	-25.334	104	447.42972587271	74.032733816761	0.19524171988145	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	32.414	23.72	28.067	166.07406819518	0.0787402	0.1687402	6.48	6.6487402	T	T	0.414	-27.586	104	447.6633738511	74.345277677431	0.18717667027048	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.188	23.396	28.292	165.56989645012	0.06692917	0.13692917	6.35	6.48692917	T	F	1.188	-24.812	104	447.47085815255	74.087703648762	0.21260468451351	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	32.432	23.576	28.004	165.32462950109	0.0393701	0.0793701	6.37	6.4493701	T	F	0.432	-26.568	104	447.37711490205	73.962455768447	0.18774583543223	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	32.882	23.09	27.986	165.46768559048	0.06299216	0.11299216	6.37	6.48299216	T	F	0.882	-27.118	104	447.43179933319	74.035504295247	0.20231961738346	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.71	23.216	28.463	165.92230914076	0.11023628	0.22023628	6.37	6.59023628	T	F	1.71	-25.29	104	447.60545127663	74.267730059808	0.23083578490416	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	32.072	23.126	27.599	165.72154174233	0.10629927	0.16629927	6.35	6.51629927	T	F	0.072000000000003	-28.928	104	447.52878914771	74.165160911634	0.1765656104066	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.512	24.404	28.958	166.29714356544	0.09448824	0.16448824	6.39	6.55448824	T	F	1.512	-27.488	104	447.74847553018	74.459292516448	0.22381996705326	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.818	23.054	28.436	169.13704420667	0.12992133	0.19992133	6.37	6.56992133	T	F	1.818	-28.182	104	448.82767367803	75.913386084057	0.23471367902614	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.034	23.45	28.742	164.99661756131	0.10236226	0.15236226	6.46	6.61236226	T	F	2.034	-28.966	104	447.25165445466	73.795010183716	0.2425762380721	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	33.926	22.91	28.418	165.12053636847	0.12598432	0.19598432	6.45	6.64598432	T	T	1.926	-30.074	104	447.29906412781	73.8582613859	0.23862726504251	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.754	21.974	28.364	166.57416793367	0	0	6.45	6.45	T	F	2.754	-28.246	104	447.85409127126	74.600922609201	0.26978202966233	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	36.392	22.208	29.3	166.87001723476	0	0.03	6.49	6.52	T	F	4.392	-24.608	104	447.96680199947	74.752227970249	0.33684107384306	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-11 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	34.484	23.702	29.093	168.01781105364	0.05118113	0.09118113	6.65	6.74118113	T	T	2.484	-31.516	104	448.40328012765	75.339737596321	0.25940388753804	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	37.31	22.748	30.029	178.3147249792	0.06692917	0.12692917	6.81	6.93692917	T	T	5.31	-32.69	104	452.26255344605	80.645072836121	0.3770293222324	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	37.526	23.342	30.434	171.02028405909	0.10629927	0.14629927	7.04	7.18629927	T	T	5.526	-29.474	104	449.53904784002	76.880295657252	0.38670169630401	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	39.092	24.44	31.766	170.62002869958	0	0.04	7.08	7.12	T	T	7.092	-26.908	104	449.38814018673	76.67461737591	0.45857606023742	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	37.184	23.414	30.299	176.4912438298	0.26771668	0.26771668	7.3	7.56771668	T	T	5.184	-30.816	104	451.58644838474	79.701053972106	0.37142208930347	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-10 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	37.526	21.83	29.678	176.93056990306	0.22440957	0.22440957	7.41	7.63440957	T	T	5.526	-30.474	104	451.74962689288	79.92831893965	0.38670169630401	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-10 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	35.69	21.218	28.454	177.25881110556	0.30708678	0.30708678	7.34	7.64708678	T	T	3.69	-36.31	104	451.87142645019	80.098191825135	0.30729125690349	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	38.48	23.72	31.1	184.63561636256	0	0.12	7.42	7.54	T	T	6.48	-29.52	104	454.58210191348	83.932046574182	0.43018930438441	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	38.282	24.242	31.262	177.52280280162	0	0.09	7.77	7.86	T	T	6.282	-32.718	104	451.96931146891	80.234858952281	0.42107486519195	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	39.218	24.422	31.82	174.08854076867	0	0.07	7.77	7.84	T	T	7.218	-33.782	104	450.69078614482	78.460101297833	0.46445161149433	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	37.904	23.09	30.497	177.92243707631	0	0	7.54	7.54	T	T	5.904	-37.096	104	452.11736633146	80.441823662213	0.40379541841316	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-09 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	38.3	22.01	30.155	174.30999496812	0	0	7.46	7.46	T	T	6.3	-37.7	104	450.77356711121	78.574338214915	0.42190178187938	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-09 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	38.426	23.018	30.722	178.39122731877	0	0	7.28	7.28	T	T	6.426	-29.574	104	452.29085037438	80.684719903335	0.42769964329577	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	38.768	24.026	31.397	180.64827951504	0	0.03	7.3	7.33	T	T	6.768	-20.232	104	453.12322664985	81.855931302597	0.44351204038068	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	41.27	23.288	32.279	181.0032656686	0	0.03	7.02	7.05	T	T	9.27	-23.73	104	453.25370794055	82.04040131364	0.56030900758402	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	45.104	26.942	36.023	179.88797359693	0	0.02	7.06	7.08	T	T	13.104	-10.896	104	452.84336692803	81.461075633495	0.72641775547249	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	46.058	29.714	37.886	173.33789657381	0	0	7.43	7.43	T	T	14.058	-1.942	104	450.40984397847	78.073094951366	0.76240691905578	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	43.592	28.4	35.996	181.35899722931	0	0.01	7.45	7.46	T	T	11.592	-6.408	104	453.38434525057	82.225330214111	0.66437765652789	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-08 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	42.044	27.608	34.826	174.71540699413	0	0	7.29	7.29	T	T	10.044	-5.956	104	450.92499206927	78.783543513206	0.59586090883263	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-08 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	42.746	28.202	35.474	190.75882499181	0	0.01	7.5	7.51	T	T	10.746	-9.254	104	456.79387363303	87.137462597694	0.62744280024331	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-07 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	46.544	30.056	38.3	185.36567133248	0	0.02	7.58	7.6	T	T	14.544	-6.456	104	454.84761571821	84.313133641586	0.77969234939242	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-07 16:00:09	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	45.842	30.506	38.174	186.58955243536	0	0	7.3	7.3	T	T	13.842	-8.158	104	455.29162616134	84.95266075301	0.75449239896143	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	44.618	29.066	36.842	188.14041416854	0	0.04	7.35	7.39	T	T	12.618	-5.382	104	455.85228248014	85.764237225487	0.70710101057904	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-07 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	44.312	29.39	36.851	187.49964984241	0	0	7.24	7.24	T	T	12.312	-7.688	104	455.62090570419	85.428760280415	0.69462304984538	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-07 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	39.362	26.69	33.026	184.24854500915	0	0	7.3	7.3	T	T	7.362	-13.638	104	454.44112802275	83.730116630511	0.47117595707708	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-07 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	40.37	24.872	32.621	189.42953778545	0	0	7.1	7.1	T	T	8.37	-16.63	104	456.31663917767	86.439850043234	0.5183691014721	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	41.126	26.762	33.944	184.97946524488	0	0	7.65	7.65	T	T	9.126	-21.874	104	454.7072177046	84.111497973984	0.55363159929407	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-06 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	49.748	21.956	35.852	182.88966263799	0	0.11	7.52	7.63	T	T	17.748	-18.252	104	453.94511542668	83.021869016547	0.87444853239011	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2023-04-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	43.358	22.73	33.044	192.62529932595	0	0.16	7.57	7.73	T	T	11.358	-24.642	104	457.46125265953	88.118610723566	0.65430142814773	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	43.358	23.252	33.305	190.39527212892	0	0.16	7.31	7.47	T	T	11.358	-17.642	104	456.66351263107	86.946573758741	0.65430142814773	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	42.26	22.91	32.585	191.42497831916	0.00787402	0.16787402	7.61	7.77787402	T	T	10.26	-33.74	104	457.03242747765	87.487422521061	0.60565574581165	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-06 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	22.748	22.748	22.748	196.86202442428	0	0.12	7.67	7.79	T	T	-9.252	-47.252	104	458.9644509118	90.352670945276	0.021354573697264	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	22.946	22.946	22.946	196.67641882445	0	0.13	7.49	7.62	T	T	-9.054	-48.054	104	458.89893594142	90.254599323308	0.022579838449252	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	26.492	26.492	26.492	196.6938454952	0	0.24	7.01	7.25	T	T	-5.508	-46.508	104	458.90508851273	90.263806576884	0.056489925328414	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	23.414	23.414	23.414	203.58123260499	0	0.25	7.52	7.77	T	T	-8.586	-52.586	104	461.31551495828	93.915181155011	0.025712581610643	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	27.698	27.698	27.698	203.86405491962	0.02362206	0.61362206	7.2	7.81362206	T	T	-4.302	-41.302	104	461.41359774037	94.065647030402	0.074522354468999	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-05 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	197	-88	28.4	28.4	28.4	207.20850977183	0.02362206	0.34362206	8.05	8.39362206	T	T	-3.6	-44.6	104	462.56812741172	95.848052348926	0.086869393719756	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L