Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 14, 2023

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DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.47°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.369 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -24 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.65 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 103 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 73.08 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-15 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	196	-89	37.16006	17.47004	27.31505	163.78433521739	0	0.3	6.35	6.65	T	T	5.16006	-23.83994	103	446.21174200442	73.082493530388	0.36944290707869	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	196	-88	33.134	14.9	24.017	165.9831736	0	0.3	6.35	6.65	T	T	1.134	-27.866	104	447.62868437566	74.298829627064	0.23269351956673	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	196	-88	32.432	15.656	24.044	165.9961624	0	0.3	6.35	6.65	T	T	0.432	-28.568	104	447.6336419778	74.30546672945	0.21209165107514	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	196	-88	33.008	15.836	24.422	165.9889792	0	0.3	6.35	6.65	T	T	1.008	-27.992	104	447.6309002938	74.301796198144	0.22891599259832	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	196	-88	33.566	17.186	25.376	165.51771908333	0	0.3	6.35	6.65	T	T	1.566	-27.434	104	447.45092038026	74.061055743079	0.2459039750575	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.674	17.15	25.412	165.20464274974	0	0.19	6.35	6.54	T	F	1.674	-27.326	103	446.7579838037	73.806493109886	0.24926828257126	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-13 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.368	16.862	25.115	164.975892	0	0.19	6.35	6.54	T	F	1.368	-28.632	103	446.67014070879	73.689804893198	0.23979981240304	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.764	16.646	25.205	164.9720544	0	0.19	6.35	6.54	T	F	1.764	-28.236	103	446.66866658794	73.687847563122	0.25209042968101	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.332	17.708	25.52	165.21230152524	0	0.19	6.35	6.54	T	F	1.332	-28.668	103	446.76092398454	73.810400483027	0.23869890017401	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.35	18.32	25.835	165.1189819051	0	0.17	6.35	6.52	T	F	1.35	-28.65	103	446.72509496585	73.762792872221	0.23924901086427	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.18	18.86	25.52	165.80423610131	0	0.22	6.35	6.57	T	F	0.18	-30.82	103	446.98799293114	74.112502714405	0.2049640525609	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.63	18.518	25.574	165.30701153451	0	0.07	6.35	6.42	T	F	0.63	-29.37	103	446.79727814519	73.858722811936	0.2177920227487	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.684	18.752	25.718	165.14561427397	0	0.06	6.35	6.41	T	F	0.684	-30.316	103	446.73532103039	73.776379009442	0.21936184282644	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.586	18.086	24.836	165.19812517999	0	0.07	6.35	6.42	T	F	-0.414	-31.414	103	446.75548168326	73.803167987957	0.18873567205915	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.342	18.284	25.313	165.49913219736	0	0.13	6.35	6.48	T	F	0.342	-29.658	103	446.87099624291	73.956762082373	0.20952962895894	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.288	17.87	25.079	165.25244751811	0	0.06	6.35	6.41	T	F	0.288	-31.712	103	446.7763349746	73.830882847724	0.20800117655499	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.91	18.932	25.421	165.93510230212	0	0.11	6.35	6.46	T	F	-0.09	-32.09	103	447.03814776873	74.179320782954	0.19748727043105	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.198	17.6	24.899	168.58703711848	0	0.1	6.34	6.44	T	F	0.198	-32.802	103	448.05092547531	75.535578004074	0.20546840480887	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.018	17.402	24.71	164.58647718752	0	0.12	6.39	6.51	T	F	0.018000000000001	-33.982	103	446.52048319271	73.491233320758	0.20045802748833	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.244	18.158	24.701	164.55538284598	0	0.13	6.39	6.52	T	F	-0.756	-34.756	103	446.50852682271	73.475381575307	0.17976117117788	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.1	18.23	24.665	166.61785753367	0	0.06	6.39	6.45	T	F	-0.9	-33.9	103	447.29954541143	74.528091932239	0.17606381504974	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.892	18.41	25.151	166.97491163476	0	0.1	6.42	6.52	T	F	-0.108	-32.108	103	447.43606567101	74.71059752762	0.19699473960082	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.28	17.672	24.476	167.81351963298	0	0.12	6.57	6.69	T	T	-0.72	-36.72	103	447.75622243	75.139547623546	0.18069305979047	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.55	15.458	23.504	178.2669492596	0	0.08	6.79	6.87	T	T	-0.45	-41.45	103	451.69033679955	80.521458351296	0.18777821623438	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-04-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.18	17.6	24.89	170.82555681296	0	0.16	6.92	7.08	T	T	0.18	-37.82	103	448.90052570642	76.683682257429	0.2049640525609	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.666	17.744	25.205	170.85067829958	0	0.21	6.91	7.12	T	T	0.666	-37.334	103	448.91003284738	76.696583607461	0.21883784967864	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.892	17.312	24.602	175.84199000677	0	0.25	7.05	7.3	T	T	-0.108	-39.108	103	450.7869943452	79.267282154829	0.19699473960082	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.82	15.71	23.765	176.29998459647	0	0.21	7.2	7.41	T	T	-0.18	-39.18	103	450.95803232122	79.503894151886	0.19503204724683	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-10 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.208	15.566	23.387	176.02591495967	0	0.36	6.98	7.34	T	T	-0.792	-42.792	103	450.85570498589	79.36228798493	0.17883230059404	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	35.33	17.474	26.402	184.88082916256	0.08661422	0.30661422	7.23	7.53661422	T	T	3.33	-38.67	103	454.12603397714	83.959197705996	0.30375560547509	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.962	18.446	26.204	177.76230840162	0.07480319	0.21480319	7.65	7.86480319	T	T	1.962	-42.038	103	451.50280687894	80.260181200613	0.25835790738865	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	34.466	17.852	26.159	174.37586876867	0.05905515	0.18905515	7.65	7.83905515	T	T	2.466	-43.534	103	450.23813183672	78.51066539181	0.27466767639105	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.154	16.34	23.747	178.15220107631	0	0.13	7.41	7.54	T	T	-0.846	-45.846	103	451.64771626394	80.462034763508	0.17744465753398	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-09 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	30.218	16.304	23.261	174.53159176812	0	0.17	7.29	7.46	T	T	-1.782	-46.782	103	450.29652593397	78.590969438909	0.15447610698232	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-09 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.486	18.014	25.25	178.65798971877	0	0.12	7.16	7.28	T	T	0.486	-38.514	103	451.83548639356	80.724019682675	0.2136376001581	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	34.412	19.166	26.789	180.92724351504	0	0.12	7.21	7.33	T	T	2.412	-29.588	103	452.67496665541	81.901233925225	0.27289623148182	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.008	18.752	25.88	181.3752176686	0	0.11	6.94	7.05	T	T	1.008	-35.992	103	452.84011761465	82.133974901431	0.22891599259832	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	36.212	21.434	28.823	180.49480639693	0	0.1	6.98	7.08	T	T	4.212	-26.788	103	452.51536525411	81.676673243176	0.33478718036646	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	40.658	22.766	31.712	174.08298137381	0	0.01	7.42	7.43	T	T	8.658	-19.342	103	450.12824028405	78.359666069195	0.50450096275847	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-04-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	40.028	23.666	31.847	181.97183242931	0	0.02	7.44	7.46	T	T	8.028	-20.972	103	453.0597751002	82.444117474995	0.47974881642025	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	39.956	22.676	31.316	175.18024859413	0	0.07	7.22	7.29	T	T	7.956	-19.044	103	450.53951546817	78.925624321192	0.47692317328856	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	39.254	22.73	30.992	191.30691299181	0	0.09	7.42	7.51	T	T	7.254	-22.746	103	456.45370095315	87.322748453033	0.4494555048907	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-07 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	42.512	23.252	32.882	186.20266173248	0	0.14	7.46	7.6	T	T	10.512	-24.488	103	454.60793911903	84.649208308682	0.57688674589292	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-07 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	41.036	21.902	31.469	187.45763723536	0	0.1	7.2	7.3	T	T	9.036	-24.964	103	455.0639750806	85.305217559538	0.51935003307129	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-04-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	38.138	23.666	30.902	188.89976696854	0	0.17	7.22	7.39	T	T	6.138	-20.862	103	455.58622770788	86.060132248094	0.40633474850442	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-07 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	38.588	23.36	30.974	188.19966744241	0	0.16	7.08	7.24	T	T	6.588	-23.412	103	455.33293269981	85.693506509679	0.4236164158196	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-07 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	35.906	23.99	29.948	184.55191220915	0	0.16	7.14	7.3	T	T	3.906	-24.094	103	454.00586796283	83.787651086718	0.32387869145426	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	34.844	22.766	28.805	189.77856258545	0	0.11	6.99	7.1	T	T	2.844	-28.156	103	455.90353782276	86.520718085623	0.28722402470313	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	35.366	23.594	29.48	185.41006364488	0	0.09	7.56	7.65	T	T	3.366	-33.634	103	454.3191730907	84.235346797836	0.30499686955705	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-04-06 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	30.938	19.364	25.151	183.98150903799	0.00787402	0.27787402	7.35	7.62787402	T	T	-1.062	-39.062	103	453.79723958658	83.490300936413	0.17196214371602	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.136	20.39	25.763	193.05038732595	0.03149608	0.31149608	7.42	7.73149608	T	T	-0.864	-38.864	103	457.07870035013	88.239220141036	0.17698362080778	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.162	21.632	26.897	190.82036012892	0.03149608	0.25149608	7.22	7.47149608	T	T	0.162	-31.838	103	456.27878729396	87.067282510621	0.2044604355501	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	30.542	20.156	25.349	191.70482462097	0.03149608	0.30149608	7.47	7.77149608	T	T	-1.458	-47.458	103	456.59658787673	87.531768801441	0.16219440978179	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-06 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	30.992	19.58	25.286	196.86202442428	0.00787402	0.29787402	7.49	7.78787402	T	T	-1.008	-41.008	103	458.43549143878	90.248538912579	0.17332255328244	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	31.91	20.714	26.312	196.67641882445	0.00787402	0.26787402	7.35	7.61787402	T	T	-0.09	-42.09	103	458.3697270379	90.150516411352	0.19748727043105	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	35.15	22.82	28.985	196.6938454952	0.09055123	0.24055123	7.01	7.25055123	T	T	3.15	-43.85	103	458.37590303346	90.159719049985	0.29758336976804	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-04-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	32.882	21.992	27.437	203.58123260499	0.09055123	0.37055123	7.4	7.77055123	T	T	0.882	-47.118	103	460.79550652484	93.809317197166	0.22517306780551	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	33.296	24.998	29.147	203.61521186147	0.32677183	0.58677183	7.2	7.78677183	T	T	1.296	-39.704	103	460.80733913443	93.827383985177	0.23760075475818	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-05 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	34.97	22.928	28.949	206.96583637628	0.26377967	0.73377967	7.64	8.37377967	T	T	2.97	-44.03	103	461.96912728986	95.611826809564	0.29146896691084	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-04 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	23.972	19.076	21.524	212.99769732826	0	0.63	7.53	8.16	T	T	-8.028	-63.028	103	464.03584182525	98.83856578656	0.051130739558929	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	28.364	26.474	27.419	211.4950339201	0.12598432	0.45598432	7.82	8.27598432	T	T	-3.636	-40.636	103	463.52393749615	98.033010883527	0.11501667125131	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-04-04 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	23.18	21.308	22.244	212.02879430911	0.07480319	0.50480319	7.95	8.45480319	T	T	-8.82	-52.82	103	463.70599458945	98.319022946708	0.043420684019273	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-04-04 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	196	-89	23.18	21.308	22.244	210.45188584937	0.07480319	0.54480319	7.75	8.29480319	T	T	-8.82	-40.82	103	463.16742310405	97.474457656241	0.043420684019273	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L