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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 15, 2023

[ Tuesday, March 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 16, 2023 ]

DAY 166 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/16/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.105
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -109

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.17 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-16 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023166-11925.3099418.3500621.83164.558397916670.189999999999941.16999999999995.86.9699999999999TT-6.69006-108.6900673428.22898414026 70.4686755716020.1053014254885917 1114126WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:01FORECAST2023166-11926.72617.36622.046168.747307236020.153543391.133543395.86.93354339TT-5.274-107.27473430.0246849335472.5655076275510.13803409740715171114126WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2023166-11926.31218.73422.523167.717369460450.153543391.133543395.86.93354339TT-5.688-107.68873429.5849411236372.0488562850760.12782012379436171114126WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:01FORECAST2023166-11925.17818.12221.65167.715962006340.145669371.125669375.86.92566937TT-6.822-108.82273429.5843394074272.0481507465750.1025641656385171114126WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:14FORECAST2023166-11926.02417.90621.965167.122120158030.110236281.090236285.86.89023628TT-5.976-107.97673429.3302675170871.7505845554680.12103125148321171114126WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023166-11926.85218.19422.523166.526158744380.098425251.088425255.86.88842525TT-5.148-110.14873429.0749032055971.4521954444440.14124995304649171114126WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023166-11926.29417.74422.019166.572579750710.11811031.12811035.86.9281103TT-5.706-112.70673429.0948080905371.4754291412770.12738824216828171114126WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2023166-11925.66417.65421.659166.534006351280.106299271.116299275.86.91629927TT-6.336-113.33673429.0782683494671.4561230665030.11290624084488171114126WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023166-11925.05217.47421.263166.72692586660.122047311.132047315.86.93204731TT-6.948-113.94873429.1609733613171.5526897904470.099998619954334171114126WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023166-11925.55618.24821.902166.762693361460.129921331.129921335.86.92992133TT-6.444-112.44473429.1763025105471.570596133570.11054621310649171114126WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023166-11924.92617.58221.254167.099648066880.122047311.122047315.86.92204731TT-7.074-114.07473429.3206454319271.7393287595170.097480104292202171114126WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023166-11925.14217.88821.515175.078314101870.098425251.368425255.87.16842525TT-6.858-114.85873432.7026575332675.756851788320.10182633411068171114126WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:05FORECAST2023166-11925.21417.02421.119166.744026703830.106299271.376299275.87.17629927TT-6.786-114.78673429.1683025718571.5612509044810.10330586337278171114126WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:03FORECAST2023166-11925.48417.81621.65166.427477983060.055118141.315118145.87.11511814TT-6.516-113.51673429.0325820376671.4028106010910.1089925725765171114126WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:04FORECAST2023166-11926.97817.45622.217170.899506842180.074803191.324803195.87.12480319TT-5.022-112.02273430.9398861557773.6474140226450.14451607737505171114126WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023166-11926.4218.01422.217171.631389325930.153543391.493543395.87.29354339TT-5.58-114.5873431.2499736073874.0160321170070.13043271406682171114126WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023166-11925.14216.17820.66165.991040575710.23622061.57622065.87.3762206TT-6.858-117.85873428.8452800924471.1844742885270.10182633411068171115127.5WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023166-11925.75416.37621.065172.572301246840.232283591.562283595.87.36228359TT-6.246-117.24673431.6477776698274.4904503205640.11490014302006171115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2023166-11926.85216.86221.857166.169385759170.251968641.521968645.877.39196864TT-5.148-112.14873428.9218439909271.2736793546630.14124995304649171115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023166-11929.82218.39224.107165.959767749780.23622061.56622065.877.4362206TT-2.178-106.17873428.8318510392671.1688344021830.23156642180711171115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023166-11928.4919.07623.783169.570904977050.27559071.65559075.877.5255907TT-3.51-108.5173430.3755026559672.9791634653240.18764400046212171115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023166-11927.03217.65422.343169.862317175120.259842661.709842665.87.50984266TT-4.968-112.96873430.4994562281873.1256351775490.14593125700553171115127.5WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:11FORECAST2023166-11927.15816.71821.938170.112678840030.279527711.839527715.827.65952771TT-4.842-110.84273430.6058755118573.2515190075760.14926934986914171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 23:00:03FORECAST2023166-11925.28616.86221.074172.166517932840.232283591.872283595.727.59228359TT-6.714-117.71473431.4763348934174.2857781490230.10480088733527171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 19:00:03FORECAST2023166-11925.28616.6120.948172.561040338370.240157611.960157615.687.64015761TT-6.714-119.71473431.6430223381374.4847689894660.10480088733527171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 15:00:05FORECAST2023166-11925.35818.12221.74171.284360951240.291338741.661338745.797.45133874TT-6.642-119.64273431.1030148373273.8412044005630.10631146481657171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 11:00:04FORECAST2023166-11923.97216.55620.264172.618610851150.318897812.028897815.687.70889781TT-8.028-121.02873431.667332169374.5138152288860.079899781314357171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 07:00:15FORECAST2023166-11924.13416.66420.399172.03176947920.311023791.921023795.687.60102379TT-7.866-119.86673431.4193648025774.2178367145770.082703575369905171115127.5WETL
2023-03-11 03:00:12FORECAST2023166-11924.27816.91620.597173.055544525610.208661532.068661535.867.92866153TT-7.722-116.72273431.8517167662474.7343339993010.08525722079448171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 23:00:06FORECAST2023166-11923.91817.22220.57174.079719728290.267716682.447716685.718.15771668TT-8.082-122.08273432.2831142398975.2517233701550.078981282929686171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023166-11924.22416.7920.507173.948502739090.255905652.365905655.78.06590565TT-7.776-123.77673432.2279063975275.1853971598970.084292790590947171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023166-11924.02616.66420.345174.689450132090.303149772.513149775.748.25314977TT-7.974-123.97473432.5394091173775.5600715391750.080826306898054171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 11:00:07FORECAST2023166-11925.89817.18621.542177.140658306530.244094622.264094625.928.18409462TT-6.102-123.10273433.5657571547476.802123641560.11814209238081171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 07:00:15FORECAST2023166-11927.84218.3223.081175.466666667590.181102462.191102465.848.03110246TT-4.158-117.15873432.8655304118575.9534717366650.16827159193404171115127.5WETL
2023-03-10 03:00:16FORECAST2023166-11926.47417.00621.74177.448551265020.484252232.494252235.758.24425223TT-5.526-119.52673433.6942241992776.9584117761650.13175272505617171115127.5WETL
2023-03-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023166-11927.12217.85222.487180.678985754540.578740472.818740475.858.66874047TT-4.878-111.87873435.0360697893878.6018758561860.14831046253255171115127.5WETL
2023-03-09 19:00:07FORECAST2023166-11926.0617.61821.839181.386129520850.66929172.94929175.818.7592917TT-5.94-113.9473435.3283344969378.9625216651570.12186575211375171115127.5WETL
2023-03-09 15:00:03FORECAST2023166-11927.66218.2322.946178.923283645170.578740472.458740475.98.35874047TT-4.338-109.33873434.3081589562377.707841914340.16312666337733171115127.5WETL
2023-03-09 11:00:06FORECAST2023166-11927.7715.56621.668178.2474328840.3937012.4437015.698.133701TT-4.23-113.2373434.0270860492877.3642138904070.1662012563166171115127.5WETL
2023-03-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023166-11931.89217.2424.566177.348665209190.401575022.481575025.668.14157502TT-0.108-103.10873433.6525581710276.9077023561810.30990663429361721151210WETL
2023-03-09 03:00:11FORECAST2023166-11932.6320.71426.672174.517566854160.322834822.162834825.417.57283482TT0.63-105.3773432.4671996459775.4731234264460.340382477992991721151210WETL
2023-03-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023166-11928.99420.04824.521173.410298260180.188976481.778976485.657.42897648TT-3.006-105.00673432.0012712476974.9134692958370.20362352419555171115127.5WETL
2023-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2023166-11929.7521.57825.664173.087307340860.200787511.830787515.657.48078751TT-2.25-97.2573431.8651125946674.7503694734650.22905497615344171115127.5WETL
2023-03-08 15:00:05FORECAST2023166-11929.24619.47224.359173.413878363590.204724521.934724525.577.50472452TT-2.754-102.75473432.0027798347374.9152775149920.21190804985086171115127.5WETL
2023-03-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023166-11928.74219.45424.098174.892903231590.070866181.620866185.757.37086618TT-3.258-112.25873432.6248405780975.6630143788080.19553485681165171115127.5WETL
2023-03-08 07:00:10FORECAST2023166-11926.5116.05221.281177.781904739690.153543391.633543396.037.66354339TT-5.49-117.4973433.8332013112177.1276928684250.13263782115137171115127.5WETL
2023-03-08 03:00:09FORECAST2023166-11927.62617.81622.721179.558000593220.149606381.639606386.518.14960638TT-4.374-118.37473434.5716861381378.0308230773860.16211004550898171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 23:00:06FORECAST2023166-11926.07817.8721.974183.734944123760.303149771.683149776.267.94314977TT-5.922-119.92273436.2953478161980.1627013524660.12228451009908171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 19:00:07FORECAST2023166-11926.88819.1323.009183.492164706010.303149771.653149776.217.86314977TT-5.112-121.11273436.1956620034980.038486256390.14217799754569171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 15:00:05FORECAST2023166-11926.61819.14822.883186.746741112440.381889971.991889976.448.43188997TT-5.382-121.38273437.5269009694681.7067229050730.13531757505916171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:21:28FORECAST2023166-11927.26615.87221.569183.574340454040.125984321.785984326.217.99598432TT-4.734-117.73473436.229410445680.0805263092050.15217073239554171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2023166-11927.26615.87221.569204.574340454040.125984321.785984326.217.99598432TT-4.734-117.73473444.6269659521490.9592683077390.15217073239554171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 07:00:19FORECAST2023166-11925.32212.97419.148206.164816086150.122047311.792047316.358.14204731TT-6.678-127.67873445.2449105682291.7938351005920.10555422826852171115127.5WETL
2023-03-07 03:00:14FORECAST2023166-11931.3719.14825.259202.660691872440.074803191.094803196.667.75480319TT-0.63-112.6373443.8801431544389.9570569201140.28909743504559172114128WETL
2023-03-06 23:00:06FORECAST2023166-11927.9521.72224.836185.829227331840.165354420.855354426.87.65535442TT-4.05-115.0573437.1527180228181.235751816190.17140798112419171113124.5WETL
2023-03-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023166-11928.70620.3924.548189.18071758010.362204921.122204926.978.09220492TT-3.294-116.29473438.5153171252582.9586423636220.19439543987338171114126WETL
2023-03-06 15:00:06FORECAST2023166-11928.3119.52623.918192.435579770350.279527711.469527717.038.49952771TT-3.69-122.6973439.82757415984.6384742322740.18212967315773171114126WETL
2023-03-06 11:00:05FORECAST2023166-11939.18223.93631.559193.911770705610.129921331.879921336.748.61992133TT7.182-110.81873440.4191608899485.4024593408470.633254243455991731151212.5WETL
2023-03-06 07:00:10FORECAST2023166-11921.88421.88421.884193.574346219890.031496081.221496086.647.86149608TT-10.116-122.11673440.2841327912285.2277131560520.049876275589131171114126WETL
2023-03-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023166-11938.8424.24231.541191.248793670180.173228441.733228446.578.30322844TT6.84-104.1673439.3503559274684.0252255696890.618383018673441731151212.5WETL
2023-03-05 23:00:07FORECAST2023166-11922.38822.38822.388189.170947534460.035433091.215433095.847.05543309TT-9.612-117.61273438.5113617992982.9536098161980.056140758744504171114126WETL
2023-03-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023166-11923.64823.64823.648187.206954516510.035433091.075433095.86.87543309TT-8.352-117.35273437.7142583017581.9431532451250.074507986901394171114126WETL
2023-03-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023166-11921.93821.93821.938187.217161336350.027559071.007559075.856.85755907TT-10.062-134.06273437.7184111149281.9483983935940.050519662545733171114126WETL
2023-03-05 11:00:06FORECAST2023166-11925.7925.7925.79185.3802457293401.175.56.67TT-6.21-121.2173436.9692951201981.0054753055580.11570465397912171114126WETL
2023-03-05 07:00:22FORECAST2023166-11925.7925.7925.79187.563689531201.195.476.66TT-6.21-133.2173437.8593379747982.126512926240.11570465397912171114126WETL
2023-03-05 03:00:11FORECAST2023166-11927.3227.3227.32185.9700409118101.315.626.93TT-4.68-101.6873437.2102016588481.3079990895560.15363533548546171114126WETL