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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 26, 2023

[ Saturday, February 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, February 27, 2023 ]

DAY 149 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/27/2023 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.126
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -58

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.88 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 139 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 405.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-27 07:00:09OBSERVATION2023149-13521.7599816.1700818.96503139.072884583330.880.885.015.89TF-10.24002-58.2400257405.53500843138 56.3989234220780.1259351673658116 1113124.5WETL
2023-02-27 03:00:09OBSERVATION2023149-13521.7599816.1700818.96503139.072884583330.880.885.015.89TF-10.24002-58.2400257405.53500843138 56.3989234220780.1259351673658116 1113124.5WETL
2023-02-26 11:00:01FORECAST2023149-13518.84213.06415.953138.682325256611.090551771.090551775.016.10055177TF-13.158-61.15857405.3440836947556.2140600557990.074247572795893161114126WETL
2023-02-26 07:00:13FORECAST2023149-13519.23813.51416.376138.192834817941.078740741.078740745.016.08874074TF-12.762-60.76257405.1045289346555.9825432510640.080120712845442161114126WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:13FORECAST2023149-13520.24615.85418.05137.867449360651.06299271.06299275.016.0729927TF-11.754-59.75457404.9451216503555.8287510529730.096641068965599161114126WETL
2023-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2023149-13519.65216.41218.032140.696851717511.086614761.146614765.016.15661476TT-12.348-65.34857406.3268560090357.1689094087450.086628081077988161114126WETL
2023-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2023149-13518.91414.5416.727141.015548286441.10236281.16236285.016.1723628TT-13.086-66.08657406.4818696669957.320263719590.075290312385919161114126WETL
2023-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2023149-13519.43614.57617.006140.756642492561.082677751.142677755.016.15267775TF-12.564-65.56457406.3559477390957.1972988606370.083185448921968161114126WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:05FORECAST2023149-13520.3915.06217.726140.792317342671.059055691.119055695.016.12905569TF-11.61-64.6157406.3733035483357.2142391127650.099191282116685161114126WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:19FORECAST2023149-13520.33614.46817.402140.588900249780.98425251.07425255.016.0842525TF-11.664-63.66457406.2743200775157.1176598594230.098229264308194161114126WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:12FORECAST2023149-13521.30816.17818.743140.627516695251.015748581.135748585.016.14574858TF-10.692-61.69257406.293114908457.1359917999480.11660796674731161114126WETL
2023-02-24 23:00:05FORECAST2023149-13521.88414.57618.23143.318867717860.885827251.015827255.016.02582725TF-10.116-68.11657407.5984787913558.4165524638980.12858276919086161114126WETL
2023-02-24 19:00:06FORECAST2023149-13521.3812.7417.06143.442281693430.877953231.027953235.016.03795323TF-10.62-70.6257407.6581235453158.4754113922010.11806014321057161114126WETL
2023-02-24 15:00:08FORECAST2023149-13520.87615.36818.122143.543551259780.929134361.059134365.016.06913436TF-11.124-69.12457407.7070521615458.5237181409250.10815984752088161114126WETL
2023-02-24 11:00:08FORECAST2023149-13520.31813.80217.06142.92690271350.86614220.89614225.015.9061422TF-11.682-70.68257407.4089219435158.229695351230.097910110384575161113124.5WETL
2023-02-24 07:00:17FORECAST2023149-13520.31813.80217.06142.867899796830.86614220.89614225.015.9061422TF-11.682-70.68257407.3803713999858.2015780803690.097910110384575161113124.5WETL
2023-02-24 03:00:27FORECAST2023149-13520.31813.80217.06142.867899796830.86614220.89614225.015.9061422TF-11.682-70.68257407.3803713999858.2015780803690.097910110384575161113124.5WETL
2023-02-23 23:00:11FORECAST2023149-13520.31813.80217.06144.298815154330.86614220.89614224.985.8761422TF-11.682-68.68257408.0715629173658.8842430271510.097910110384575161113124.5WETL
2023-02-23 19:00:08FORECAST2023149-13520.31813.80217.06144.298815154330.86614220.89614224.985.8761422TF-11.682-68.68257408.0715629173658.8842430271510.097910110384575161113124.5WETL
2023-02-23 15:00:06FORECAST2023149-13520.10214.07217.087144.406537114320.874016220.904016224.985.88401622TF-11.898-68.89857408.1234954882158.9357006984420.094139190706853161113124.5WETL
2023-02-23 11:00:06FORECAST2023149-13518.9514.2716.61145.30280980940.972441471.022441474.986.00244147TF-13.05-71.0557408.5550365011159.3641947653930.075815836505365161114126WETL
2023-02-23 07:00:21FORECAST2023149-13518.9514.2716.61145.769394392740.972441471.022441474.986.00244147TF-13.05-71.0557408.7793010040359.5875111476430.075815836505365161114126WETL
2023-02-23 03:00:23FORECAST2023149-13518.9514.2716.61145.769394392740.972441471.022441474.986.00244147TF-13.05-71.0557408.7793010040359.5875111476430.075815836505365161114126WETL
2023-02-22 23:00:09FORECAST2023149-13520.55215.36817.96142.865286232670.889764260.909764264.855.75976426TF-11.448-70.44857407.3791066401958.2003326753580.10211850423768161113124.5WETL
2023-02-22 19:00:09FORECAST2023149-13519.59815.65617.627142.855011148210.877953230.907953234.855.75795323TF-12.402-73.40257407.374134224958.1954364861920.085757633153019161113124.5WETL
2023-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2023149-13520.87614.43217.654143.457462349830.972441471.032441474.855.88244147TF-11.124-70.12457407.6654589151558.4826522236470.10815984752088161114126WETL
2023-02-22 11:00:06FORECAST2023149-13521.52414.07217.798143.101266265790.893701270.983701274.855.83370127TF-10.476-69.47657407.4932686049358.3128027321490.12100264200261161113124.5WETL
2023-02-22 07:00:20FORECAST2023149-13519.18412.84816.016142.476885723310.850394160.890394164.855.74039416TF-12.816-74.81657407.1910579303758.0153138282970.079299824944484161113124.5WETL
2023-02-22 03:00:13FORECAST2023149-13519.18412.84816.016142.476885723310.850394160.890394164.855.74039416TF-12.816-74.81657407.1910579303758.0153138282970.079299824944484161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 23:00:07FORECAST2023149-13519.18412.84816.016136.50178649290.850394160.890394165.035.92039416TF-12.816-76.81657404.2746407121855.1842106909880.079299824944484161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 19:00:09FORECAST2023149-13519.18412.84816.016136.50178649290.850394160.890394165.035.92039416TF-12.816-76.81657404.2746407121855.1842106909880.079299824944484161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 15:00:06FORECAST2023149-13520.5715.0817.825135.101064795040.732283860.752283865.035.78228386TF-11.43-68.4357403.5845270708654.5246993420750.10244757800911161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 11:00:09FORECAST2023149-13522.85617.43820.147138.172501605540.562992430.582992435.035.61299243TF-9.144-64.14457405.0945714933155.9729303300550.15066618614359161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 07:00:22FORECAST2023149-13523.5416.41219.976139.883494364040.692913760.752913765.195.94291376TF-8.46-68.4657405.9306706442956.7830006792610.16763482768008161113124.5WETL
2023-02-21 03:00:21FORECAST2023149-13523.5416.41219.976139.883494364040.692913760.752913765.195.94291376TF-8.46-68.4657405.9306706442956.7830006792610.16763482768008161113124.5WETL
2023-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2023149-13523.5416.41219.976141.749966071010.692913760.752913765.826.57291376TT-8.46-69.4657406.8386122591357.6693594841070.16763482768008161113124.5WETL
2023-02-20 19:00:09FORECAST2023149-13523.5416.41219.976141.749966071010.692913760.752913765.826.57291376TT-8.46-69.4657406.8386122591357.6693594841070.16763482768008161113124.5WETL
2023-02-20 15:00:08FORECAST2023149-13522.7316.75419.742141.95627320320.783464990.853464995.746.59346499TT-9.27-73.2757406.9387060417957.7675021318250.14766940036842161113124.5WETL
2023-02-20 11:00:09FORECAST2023149-13525.62816.75421.191149.532824006021.003937551.253937555.87.05393755TT-6.372-65.37257410.5785136618861.3949646240530.22667132723197161114126WETL
2023-02-20 07:00:23FORECAST2023149-13525.66416.62821.146150.102388269571.007874561.257874565.957.20787456TT-6.336-64.33657410.8493144578261.6694633190370.22778231544535161114126WETL
2023-02-20 03:00:23FORECAST2023149-13524.58419.421.992150.620188488931.185040011.265040015.947.20504001TT-7.416-66.41657411.0951641605361.9192311127470.19580717152003161114126WETL
2023-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2023149-13524.58419.421.992150.22556194121.185040011.265040015.977.23504001TT-7.416-69.41657410.9078261924161.728859095790.19580717152003161114126WETL
2023-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2023149-13524.58419.421.992150.324332196991.185040011.265040016.017.27504001TT-7.416-69.41657410.9547322410461.7764956873290.19580717152003161114126WETL
2023-02-19 15:00:07FORECAST2023149-13526.81621.72224.269152.292807212381.503937821.813937825.797.60393782TT-5.184-67.18457411.8871119891462.7274445394260.264904982460571621151210WETL
2023-02-19 11:00:08FORECAST2023149-13526.72621.39824.062156.819741408561.397638552.207638555.797.99763855TT-5.274-64.27457414.0137152608364.9255237668020.261898124388441621151210WETL
2023-02-19 07:00:17FORECAST2023149-13526.0620.62423.342156.851199171571.401575562.211575565.888.09157556TT-5.94-65.9457414.028407687864.9408522369260.24020313564754161115127.5WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:16FORECAST2023149-13523.57617.20420.39152.882230537210.874016221.634016225.917.54401622TT-8.424-66.42457412.1653900778763.0127641853420.16856067952301161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2023149-13523.59418.37420.984157.162449781740.834646121.944646125.857.79464612TT-8.406-71.40657414.173714811165.0925556549170.16902483275804161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 19:00:09FORECAST2023149-13522.71217.38420.048158.217849087680.834646121.944646125.987.92464612TT-9.288-74.28857414.6655729194665.6074950380260.1472445607731161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 15:00:10FORECAST2023149-13522.38816.4319.409158.619087506020.767716951.957716955.937.88771695TT-9.612-80.61257414.8522203497965.803480641730.13973713251688161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:13FORECAST2023149-13522.2815.90819.094163.740213798950.637795622.427795626.228.64779562TT-9.72-76.7257417.2178249290168.3153358546080.13729335642463161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:17FORECAST2023149-13523.46817.72620.597168.794262789741.114173832.894173836.189.07417383TT-8.532-81.53257419.5224690672970.8129858899460.16579294574549161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:19FORECAST2023149-13523.46817.72620.597168.794262789741.114173832.894173836.189.07417383TT-8.532-81.53257419.5224690672970.8129858899460.16579294574549161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:07FORECAST2023149-13523.46817.72620.597173.722935735351.114173832.894173836.038.92417383TT-8.532-85.53257421.7416273108273.2661936182390.16579294574549161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:11FORECAST2023149-13523.95418.19421.074172.17429466721.066929712.846929715.898.73692971TT-8.046-83.04657421.0473352205772.4935279631060.17847947234789161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2023149-13526.9616.46621.713160.585255375120.397638011.807638015.717.51763801TT-5.04-81.0457415.7640942388566.7655832491510.269752131988111621151210WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2023149-13526.76216.46621.614158.072310181550.625984591.535984595.296.82598459TT-5.238-78.23857414.5978243432465.5364358901810.263098766930751621151210WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:13FORECAST2023149-13531.02820.08425.556147.222059270260.35433090.35433097.177.5243309TT-0.972-71.97257409.4758268566160.2838744512240.42176307945729162112124WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:05FORECAST2023149-13521.86621.86621.866149.18373860493006.976.97TT-10.134-83.13457410.4123463660961.2268482005160.12819613082894161111121.5WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:05FORECAST2023149-13521.81221.81221.812149.428716027240077TT-10.188-83.18857410.5289728922761.3448173112740.12704104858659161111121.5WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:06FORECAST2023149-13523.3623.3623.36150.28424024125007.217.21TT-8.64-85.6457410.9356939681361.7571585560120.16305468889702161111121.5WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2023149-13522.1922.1922.19154.739508034480.019685050.329685057.327.64968505TT-9.81-91.8157413.0395268005163.9135331759040.13527923563699161112123WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:16FORECAST2023149-13522.1922.1922.19154.367377442860.019685050.329685057.337.65968505TT-9.81-91.8157412.8647119123563.7328428166090.13527923563699161112123WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:12FORECAST2023149-13525.73625.73625.736151.95778185601007.527.52TT-6.264-81.26457411.7287542737162.5653882257720.23001344323709161111121.5WETL