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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 25, 2023

[ Friday, February 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 26, 2023 ]

DAY 148 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/26/2023 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.483
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 133 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 401.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-26 07:00:11OBSERVATION2023148-13632.5999414.5900423.59499132.6522937500.035.475.5TF0.59994-50.4000656401.62772255015 53.2768386298650.4832457285064516 2111122WETL
2023-02-26 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023148-13632.5999414.5900423.59499132.6522937500.035.475.5TF0.59994-50.4000656401.62772255015 53.2768386298650.4832457285064516 2111122WETL
2023-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2023148-13628.36414.30621.335135.282535628680.059055150.089055155.475.55905515TF-3.636-54.63656402.9346108023354.5100158418960.31724623932322162111122WETL
2023-02-25 07:00:18FORECAST2023148-13629.46214.68422.073135.465907853860.094488240.124488245.475.59448824TF-2.538-53.53856403.0253978005854.5962014012190.35827697737045162112124WETL
2023-02-25 03:00:12FORECAST2023148-13630.14614.922.523135.560081334710.11811030.14811035.475.6181103TF-1.854-52.85456403.0720063557954.6404739653370.3847289603911162112124WETL
2023-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2023148-13630.09215.13422.613138.628166421590.133858340.163858345.475.63385834TF-1.908-59.90856404.5843878646556.0867918524760.382619169836162112124WETL
2023-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2023148-13628.34614.01821.182138.733740133940.149606380.179606385.475.64960638TF-3.654-61.65456404.6362198937256.1366961795150.31659028710603162112124WETL
2023-02-24 15:00:04FORECAST2023148-13629.5715.51222.541138.644152415340.133858340.163858345.475.63385834TF-2.43-60.4356404.592237174456.094347796870.36241237998346162112124WETL
2023-02-24 11:00:07FORECAST2023148-13628.90414.95421.929138.156694437770.031496080.061496085.475.53149608TF-3.096-61.09656404.3527462387155.8640388071740.33718387311968162111122WETL
2023-02-24 07:00:17FORECAST2023148-13628.90414.95421.929138.09769152110.031496080.061496085.475.53149608TF-3.096-61.09656404.3237376397355.836174795230.33718387311968162111122WETL
2023-02-24 03:00:27FORECAST2023148-13628.90414.95421.929138.09769152110.031496080.061496085.475.53149608TF-3.096-61.09656404.3237376397355.836174795230.33718387311968162111122WETL
2023-02-23 23:00:10FORECAST2023148-13628.90414.95421.929139.168181315670.031496080.031496085.475.50149608TF-3.096-59.09656404.8493651036356.3421498482750.33718387311968162111122WETL
2023-02-23 19:00:07FORECAST2023148-13628.90414.95421.929139.168181315670.031496080.031496085.475.50149608TF-3.096-59.09656404.8493651036356.3421498482750.33718387311968162111122WETL
2023-02-23 15:00:05FORECAST2023148-13628.8514.95421.902139.150971584970.027559070.027559075.475.49755907TF-3.15-59.1556404.8409261516156.3340082113560.33516822367931162111122WETL
2023-02-23 11:00:06FORECAST2023148-13627.9512.63220.291139.274246825170.047244120.047244125.475.51724412TF-4.05-60.0556404.901367173956.3923329516270.30230801097753162111122WETL
2023-02-23 07:00:20FORECAST2023148-13627.9512.63220.291139.740831408510.047244120.047244125.475.51724412TF-4.05-60.0556405.1299591662956.6131973223910.30230801097753162111122WETL
2023-02-23 03:00:22FORECAST2023148-13627.9512.63220.291139.740831408510.047244120.047244125.475.51724412TF-4.05-60.0556405.1299591662956.6131973223910.30230801097753162111122WETL
2023-02-22 23:00:08FORECAST2023148-13627.8613.47820.669137.110084102330.019685050.019685055.345.35968505TF-4.14-61.1456403.8375375966155.370198743550.2991027426389162111122WETL
2023-02-22 19:00:08FORECAST2023148-13627.75213.4620.606137.17151325610.027559070.027559075.345.36755907TF-4.248-63.24856403.867814810355.3991593129620.29527690080945162111122WETL
2023-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2023148-13628.07612.2920.183137.318761863330.055118140.055118145.345.39511814TF-3.924-60.92456403.9403715022655.4685916813020.30682105455435162111122WETL
2023-02-22 11:00:06FORECAST2023148-13629.8414.30622.073137.52328194740.094488240.094488245.345.43448824TF-2.16-61.1656404.0411036801655.5650586197450.37282039137918162112124WETL
2023-02-22 07:00:19FORECAST2023148-13628.25615.78222.019136.710283936510.035433090.035433095.345.37543309TF-3.744-63.74456403.6403685419155.1817893916030.31331919797572162111122WETL
2023-02-22 03:00:13FORECAST2023148-13628.25615.78222.019136.710283936510.035433090.035433095.345.37543309TF-3.744-63.74456403.6403685419155.1817893916030.31331919797572162111122WETL
2023-02-21 23:00:06FORECAST2023148-13628.25615.78222.019130.218646069770.035433090.035433095.525.55543309TF-3.744-65.74456400.4107147450352.1409411459280.31331919797572162111122WETL
2023-02-21 19:00:09FORECAST2023148-13628.25615.78222.019130.218646069770.035433090.035433095.525.55543309TF-3.744-65.74456400.4107147450352.1409411459280.31331919797572162111122WETL
2023-02-21 15:00:06FORECAST2023148-13629.80415.47622.64130.091592873150.015748040.015748045.525.53574804TF-2.196-59.19656400.3469716818852.0817752480390.37142709030227162111122WETL
2023-02-21 11:00:08FORECAST2023148-13629.98415.81822.901134.543195009830.019685050.019685055.525.53968505TF-2.016-57.01656402.5681363922554.1628032793680.37841007739628162111122WETL
2023-02-21 07:00:21FORECAST2023148-13627.69815.60221.65135.459339756320.055118140.055118145.685.73511814TF-4.302-62.30256403.0221466867654.5931138973650.29337245569816162111122WETL
2023-02-21 03:00:21FORECAST2023148-13627.69815.60221.65135.459339756320.055118140.055118145.685.73511814TF-4.302-62.30256403.0221466867654.5931138973650.29337245569816162111122WETL
2023-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2023148-13627.69815.60221.65136.884195419070.055118140.055118146.316.36511814TF-4.302-63.30256403.7261609022555.2637307047360.29337245569816162111122WETL
2023-02-20 19:00:08FORECAST2023148-13627.69815.60221.65136.884195419070.055118140.055118146.316.36511814TF-4.302-63.30256403.7261609022555.2637307047360.29337245569816162111122WETL
2023-02-20 15:00:08FORECAST2023148-13627.12213.94620.534136.533903578810.066929170.066929176.236.29692917TF-4.878-65.87856403.5533195425855.0987100193350.27342130062818162111122WETL
2023-02-20 11:00:09FORECAST2023148-13628.34614.66621.506142.983804124810.248031630.248031636.296.53803163TF-3.654-60.65456406.7113131760158.1531307385010.31659028710603162112124WETL
2023-02-20 07:00:22FORECAST2023148-13628.36414.61221.488143.519547307950.248031630.248031636.446.68803163TT-3.636-59.63656406.9713034506858.4083372385680.31724623932322162112124WETL
2023-02-20 03:00:23FORECAST2023148-13625.6112.2918.95142.73226001550.07874020.07874026.436.5087402TF-6.39-61.3956406.5891194786858.0333839209060.22445686066833161111121.5WETL
2023-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2023148-13625.6112.2918.95141.420536436860.07874020.07874026.466.5387402TF-6.39-64.3956405.9506510900957.4097588440530.22445686066833161111121.5WETL
2023-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2023148-13625.6112.2918.95141.519306692660.07874020.07874026.56.5787402TF-6.39-64.3956405.9988006212257.4566687819670.22445686066833161111121.5WETL
2023-02-19 15:00:07FORECAST2023148-13625.17811.98418.581142.054411062810.311023790.311023796.286.59102379TT-6.822-63.82256406.2594488619857.7109467467890.21143824402662161112123WETL
2023-02-19 11:00:08FORECAST2023148-13625.9714.5420.255147.125982123350.811024060.811024066.287.09102406TT-6.03-61.0356408.7122898810760.1321970546350.23564409822124161113124.5WETL
2023-02-19 07:00:17FORECAST2023148-13625.80814.34220.075146.992562574020.811024060.811024066.377.18102406TT-6.192-62.19256408.6481660152460.0682411137560.23057223847043161113124.5WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:16FORECAST2023148-13625.95215.87220.912146.067729665370.759842930.759842936.47.15984293TT-6.048-60.04856408.2030765823659.6252966388050.23507754179655161113124.5WETL
2023-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2023148-13627.33815.63821.488149.62772712941.110236821.110236826.347.45023682TT-4.662-64.66256409.9106588702261.3340002128670.2808238903569162114128WETL
2023-02-18 19:00:09FORECAST2023148-13626.52814.9920.759150.408878864671.114173831.114173836.477.58417383TT-5.472-67.47256410.2832835090661.7102486895130.25357507061992162114128WETL
2023-02-18 15:00:09FORECAST2023148-13623.61215.13419.373151.36933098541.1811031.1911036.427.611103TT-8.388-73.38856410.7404257300862.1735034514190.16808916862879161114126WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:12FORECAST2023148-13624.90817.13221.02157.998019632461.251969181.791969186.718.50196918TT-7.092-69.09256413.8652272397565.3898862986180.20353075132785161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:17FORECAST2023148-13623.32416.89820.111158.940597904781.543307921.783307926.678.45330792TT-8.676-74.67656414.3053068540265.8499331865010.16078644445023161115127.5WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:19FORECAST2023148-13623.32416.89820.111158.940597904781.543307921.783307926.678.45330792TT-8.676-74.67656414.3053068540265.8499331865010.16078644445023161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:07FORECAST2023148-13623.32416.89820.111161.904413808741.543307921.783307926.528.30330792TT-8.676-78.67656415.6822353422167.3007886437870.16078644445023161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:11FORECAST2023148-13623.50416.68220.093161.076159946481.49606381.77606386.388.1560638TT-8.496-77.49656415.2984885061366.8946857601450.16532607089931161115127.5WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2023148-13624.33216.50220.417156.187018867181.397638551.407638556.27.60763855TT-7.668-77.66856413.0167279418164.5078514795110.18726097692064161114126WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2023148-13625.75415.58420.669151.156528990290.913386320.913386325.786.69338632TT-6.246-75.24656410.6392354407562.0708014964520.22889525115948161113124.5WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:17FORECAST2023148-13620.37220.37220.372155.7540324471200.046.666.7TT-11.628-66.62856412.8132841469664.2973336536280.097896920383412161111121.5WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:13FORECAST2023148-13630.21816.30423.261144.21577193374007.667.66TT-1.782-72.78256407.3086454044258.7403307122840.38754732123527162111122WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:04FORECAST2023148-13630.21816.30423.261149.18373860493007.467.46TT-1.782-74.78256409.6985379051661.1203595856660.38754732123527162111122WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:05FORECAST2023148-13630.16416.1623.162149.42871602724007.497.49TT-1.836-74.83656409.8156084552461.238220179390.38543298638361162111122WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:06FORECAST2023148-13632.4149.3220.867150.28424024125007.77.7TT0.414-78.58656410.2238780114461.650183835770.47566626104359162111122WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2023148-13628.8869.57219.229154.485866349860.307086780.307086787.818.11708678TT-3.114-84.11456412.2161323347663.6815663271250.33651146728754162112124WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:15FORECAST2023148-13628.8869.48219.184154.113735758240.307086780.307086787.828.12708678TT-3.114-84.11456412.0405387965863.5011067177790.33651146728754162112124WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:12FORECAST2023148-13633.40410.59822.001151.95778185601008.018.01TT1.404-76.59656411.0199576793362.4576810675040.51605636355485163111122.5WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:04FORECAST2023148-13610.74210.74210.742155.4182242436600.026.016.03TF-21.258-94.25856412.6553465605464.1341611870910.011212258296007161111121.5WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:06FORECAST2023148-13610.70610.70610.706155.5014212761100.026.056.07TF-21.294-94.29456412.6944884104864.1745795006450.011103555178974161111121.5WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:07FORECAST2023148-13620.58820.58820.588163.1466961707400.046.626.66TF-11.412-68.41256416.2562985914267.9108398754540.1017771475608161111121.5WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:06FORECAST2023148-13620.58820.58820.588163.1466961707400.046.626.66TF-11.412-68.41256416.2562985914267.9108398754540.1017771475608161111121.5WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:14FORECAST2023148-13620.37220.37220.372163.0364199359300.046.666.7TT-11.628-67.62856416.2054127671467.8566404555090.097896920383412161111121.5WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:18FORECAST2023148-13613.60413.60413.604157.9459489950200.016.136.14TF-18.396-71.39656413.8408852979365.3644913613210.023376679930377161111121.5WETL