Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 19, 2023

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DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/20/2023 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.13°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.32°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.72°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.472 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 10 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.33 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.93 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 131 in SWE DAY: 50 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 396.32 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 51.97 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-20 07:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	142	-142	33.13004	24.31994	28.72499	131.12998708333	0.32999999999993	1.1299999999999	5.8	6.9299999999999	T	T	1.13004	10.13004	50	396.32338653677	51.969880557389	0.47163307748143	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-20 03:00:17	OBSERVATION	2023	142	-142	33.13004	24.31994	28.72499	131.12998708333	0.32999999999993	1.1299999999999	5.8	6.9299999999999	T	T	1.13004	10.13004	50	396.32338653677	51.969880557389	0.47163307748143	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-19 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.362	21.938	26.15	130.25186434677	0.36220492	1.16220492	5.8	6.96220492	T	T	-1.638	7.362	50	395.87328188061	51.563233010022	0.33841750847332	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-19 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.56	23.09	26.825	129.76714678918	0.3543309	1.1543309	5.8	6.9543309	T	T	-1.44	7.56	50	395.6243969213	51.339049188667	0.34750584934837	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-19 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	31.154	23.36	27.257	129.72221473477	0.35039389	1.15039389	5.8	6.95039389	T	T	-0.846	8.154	50	395.60131041158	51.318278138568	0.37528235477029	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	31.028	23.342	27.185	128.04344375124	0.29133874	0.90133874	5.8	6.70133874	T	T	-0.972	5.028	50	394.73685120852	50.543465804259	0.36933037139513	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-18 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.2	22.748	26.474	127.97607972302	0.2755907	0.8855907	5.8	6.6855907	T	T	-1.8	4.2	50	394.70208607862	50.512425634838	0.33105064034812	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-18 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.164	22.946	26.555	127.95058329321	0.26377967	0.87377967	5.8	6.67377967	T	T	-1.836	4.164	50	394.68892636628	50.500678347937	0.32942227189273	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-18 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.668	22.874	26.771	128.64725557792	0.30314977	0.91314977	5.8	6.71314977	T	T	-1.332	4.668	50	395.04820006486	50.821866759342	0.35250071625988	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-18 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.804	21.038	25.421	129.01465933507	0.25196864	0.88196864	5.8	6.68196864	T	T	-2.196	4.804	50	395.23741418743	50.991420347863	0.31332031260827	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-18 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.804	21.038	25.421	129.01465933507	0.25196864	0.88196864	5.8	6.68196864	T	T	-2.196	4.804	50	395.23741418743	50.991420347863	0.31332031260827	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-17 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.804	21.038	25.421	128.68612408832	0.25196864	0.73196864	5.8	6.53196864	T	T	-2.196	0.804	50	395.06822582644	50.839798732052	0.31332031260827	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-17 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.11	21.524	25.817	128.4682193755	0.16141741	0.66141741	5.8	6.46141741	T	T	-1.89	0.11	50	394.95593183445	50.739285294562	0.32698577667312	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-17 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.002	22.082	26.042	128.38138910044	0.16535442	0.65535442	5.8	6.45535442	T	T	-1.998	1.002	50	394.91116780758	50.699244294415	0.32213491708194	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.66	20.858	25.259	128.99721472078	0.01968505	0.48968505	5.8	6.28968505	T	F	-2.34	0.66	50	395.22843414706	50.983367183427	0.30697559004382	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-17 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.444	20.282	24.863	130.93246633572	0.45275615	0.68275615	5.8	6.48275615	T	T	-2.556	2.444	50	396.22222963253	51.878353742825	0.29756629236736	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-17 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.47	21.794	26.132	128.97442045051	0.01968505	0.38968505	7.58	7.96968505	T	T	-1.53	5.47	50	395.21669964122	50.972844788589	0.34336353596991	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.47	21.794	26.132	132.62738509619	0.01968505	0.38968505	7.38	7.76968505	T	T	-1.53	3.47	50	397.0886050696	52.664823341877	0.34336353596991	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-16 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.2	21.722	25.961	132.53795790429	0.03149608	0.36149608	7.38	7.74149608	T	T	-1.8	3.2	50	397.04298657095	52.623266640334	0.33105064034812	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-16 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.894	21.884	25.889	132.60996149781	0.04724412	0.36724412	7.38	7.74724412	T	T	-2.106	3.894	50	397.07971777592	52.656726085827	0.31731414542876	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-16 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.246	21.47	25.358	133.28407459511	0.10236226	0.53236226	7.38	7.91236226	T	T	-2.754	2.246	50	397.42327754178	52.970193769712	0.28905849391561	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-16 07:00:13	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.958	21.506	25.232	132.88577136565	0.1181103	0.5381103	7.38	7.9181103	T	T	-3.042	2.958	50	397.22035457549	52.784933219903	0.27689162962393	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-16 03:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.056	21.362	25.709	133.46718954268	0.3149608	0.6549608	7.38	8.0349608	T	T	-1.944	3.056	50	397.51649998335	53.05541004962	0.32455662915869	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.956	22.316	26.636	138.80387221595	0.42913409	0.82913409	5.8	6.62913409	T	T	-1.044	1.956	50	400.21440658419	55.551309350495	0.36594313831895	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	31.01	22.064	26.537	138.94333414466	0.41732306	0.84732306	5.82	6.66732306	T	T	-0.99	2.01	50	400.28442100264	55.616852060271	0.36848260015111	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.354	19.724	24.539	138.43355146393	0.42519708	0.66519708	5.8	6.46519708	T	T	-2.646	0.354	50	400.02837312785	55.377348378427	0.29368495317697	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.354	19.724	24.539	138.43355146393	0.42519708	0.66519708	5.8	6.46519708	T	T	-2.646	0.354	50	400.02837312785	55.377348378427	0.29368495317697	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 07:00:13	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.48	20.3	24.89	138.11324975804	0.45275615	0.67275615	5.81	6.48275615	T	T	-2.52	1.48	50	399.86732593158	55.226975856465	0.29912535111563	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-15 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.616	18.554	23.585	137.71125831417	0.35826791	0.62826791	5.8	6.42826791	T	T	-3.384	-0.384	50	399.66501976688	55.038372776253	0.26277679510772	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-14 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.94	19.04	23.99	126.44813535748	0.24409462	0.44409462	5.02	5.46409462	T	F	-3.06	0.94	50	393.91194704052	49.809431198308	0.27613959664826	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-14 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.94	19.022	23.981	126.26202657512	0.25590565	0.42590565	5.02	5.44590565	T	F	-3.06	0.94	50	393.81549576617	49.723942592123	0.27613959664826	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-14 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.102	20.012	24.557	126.22106615796	0.38582698	0.41582698	5.02	5.43582698	T	F	-2.898	0.102	50	393.79426182007	49.705131573817	0.28294369679361	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-02-14 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.734	24.206	25.97	128.14276819265	0.69685077	0.73685077	5.02	5.75685077	T	F	-4.266	3.734	50	394.788099572	50.589239928671	0.22814902503531	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-14 07:00:22	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.698	24.224	25.961	128.31898546259	0.68897675	0.70897675	5.02	5.72897675	T	F	-4.302	1.698	50	394.87899046391	50.670471436819	0.22679223120804	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-14 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.806	24.152	25.979	128.39788066168	0.71259881	0.71259881	5.03	5.74259881	T	F	-4.194	1.806	50	394.9196705405	50.706848729009	0.23087623291003	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.896	23.486	25.691	125.57941221196	0.71259881	0.71259881	5.52	6.23259881	T	F	-4.104	0.896	50	393.46133885382	49.410643661395	0.23431065184733	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-13 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.77	23.594	25.682	125.63527975752	0.7086618	0.7086618	5.53	6.2386618	T	F	-4.23	-0.23	50	393.49034737055	49.436269873782	0.22951036303453	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-13 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.13	24.404	26.267	123.7454362786	0.44094512	0.44094512	5.51	5.95094512	T	F	-3.87	-1.87	50	392.50678088745	48.570922843225	0.24337085664482	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-13 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.74	23.792	27.266	130.97032961606	0.73622087	0.73622087	5.53	6.26622087	T	F	-1.26	2.74	50	396.24162460205	51.895896181733	0.35584487080168	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-13 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.596	23.756	27.176	130.92463703938	0.73228386	0.73228386	5.61	6.34228386	T	F	-1.404	3.596	50	396.21821894527	51.8747265038	0.34916791803029	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-13 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.218	23.846	27.032	131.38544695392	0.87007921	0.87007921	5.53	6.40007921	T	T	-1.782	1.218	50	396.45414073946	52.088304477785	0.3318660261473	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-12 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.85	24.116	26.483	134.62596292544	0.91732333	0.91732333	5.57	6.48732333	T	T	-3.15	-4.15	50	398.1054185089	53.595325312595	0.27239452237449	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-12 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	28.346	22.64	25.493	136.23057607225	1.09448878	1.09448878	5.63	6.72448878	T	T	-3.654	-5.654	50	398.91806757079	54.344838150796	0.25189906045896	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-12 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	26.744	22.37	24.557	133.82410194421	0.78346499	0.80346499	5.52	6.32346499	T	T	-5.256	-8.256	50	397.69807683078	53.22158797682	0.19252984030106	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-12 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	26.618	23.504	25.061	133.30477542549	0.74409489	0.80409489	5.4	6.20409489	T	F	-5.382	-8.382	50	397.43381835261	52.979825901988	0.18825331307142	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-12 07:00:20	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	26.798	22.856	24.827	134.33007481473	0.79133901	1.00133901	5.42	6.42133901	T	T	-5.202	-5.202	50	397.9552052924	53.45735249984	0.19438063407217	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-12 03:00:22	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	26.348	22.478	24.413	136.74395988351	0.9842525	1.3942525	5.32	6.7142525	T	T	-5.652	-4.652	50	399.17736989082	54.585094254758	0.17928821473301	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	25.826	20.75	23.288	139.52675364948	0.9448824	1.4148824	5.28	6.6948824	T	T	-6.174	-13.174	50	400.57704779882	55.891215065864	0.16273010858621	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	25.79	20.732	23.261	139.76456894179	0.9448824	1.4148824	5.3	6.7148824	T	T	-6.21	-16.21	50	400.69620490224	56.003132354771	0.16162595243728	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	25.736	21.002	23.369	136.06171559379	0.38582698	1.02582698	5.23	6.25582698	T	T	-6.264	-15.264	50	398.83270479765	54.26586204968	0.15997887326242	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	24.152	17.744	20.948	139.12809380231	0.67322871	1.35322871	5.26	6.61322871	T	T	-7.848	-17.848	50	400.37713816762	55.703708035285	0.1165272673564	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	24.188	17.654	20.921	138.79355053923	0.6692917	1.3392917	5.26	6.5992917	T	T	-7.812	-15.812	50	400.20922378141	55.546459127169	0.11741152687879	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-11 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	23.918	18.5	21.209	138.75134854597	0.62598459	1.38598459	5.18	6.56598459	T	T	-8.082	-17.082	50	400.1880315658	55.526629051712	0.11089426321663	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-10 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	24.224	18.428	21.326	144.28927066809	0.59842552	1.51842552	5.1	6.61842552	T	T	-7.776	-20.776	50	402.94964341905	58.141310164902	0.11830051267865	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-02-10 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	25.934	19.508	22.721	141.93897957003	0.45275615	1.34275615	5.1	6.44275615	T	T	-6.066	-16.066	50	401.78235987379	57.028578169722	0.16607186486961	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-10 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	29.462	20.822	25.142	139.11858010695	0.42913409	0.95913409	5.1	6.05913409	T	F	-2.538	-14.538	50	400.37236501222	55.69923493456	0.29834535861651	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-02-10 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.11	17.438	23.774	145.19615559077	0.44881914	1.38881914	5.33	6.71881914	T	T	-1.89	-17.89	50	403.39819235643	58.571866702419	0.32698577667312	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-10 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	30.11	17.438	23.774	142.94216709598	0.45275615	1.30275615	5.18	6.48275615	T	T	-1.89	-15.89	50	402.28145037471	57.502982299077	0.32698577667312	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-10 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	31.586	20.264	25.925	143.1504160814	0.54724439	1.36724439	5.19	6.55724439	T	T	-0.414	-10.414	50	402.38489591921	57.601565275707	0.395907361303	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-02-09 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	23.18	23.18	23.18	142.48794650592	0.07086618	0.62086618	5.25	5.87086618	T	F	-8.82	-21.82	50	402.05563104207	57.288081248326	0.094408608779121	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-09 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	23.18	23.18	23.18	142.69930192507	0.07086618	0.62086618	5.29	5.91086618	T	F	-8.82	-22.82	50	402.1607404584	57.388056925082	0.094408608779121	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-02-09 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	27.158	27.158	27.158	137.05328252174	0	0.14	5.17	5.31	T	F	-4.842	-14.842	50	399.33344086879	54.72995889177	0.20699330126234	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-09 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	15.458	15.458	15.458	140.96196462174	0	0.31	5.49	5.8	T	F	-16.542	-36.542	50	401.29506642607	56.56734095643	0.011233032794555	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-09 07:00:13	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	15.44	15.44	15.44	141.06848965657	0	0.31	5.47	5.78	T	F	-16.56	-39.56	50	401.34825533238	56.617592206037	0.011166488439784	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-02-09 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	142	-142	21.416	21.416	21.416	145.18849837497	0	0.79	5.53	6.32	T	F	-10.584	-33.584	50	403.39440939016	58.568228552215	0.062408749198525	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L