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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 18, 2023

[ Friday, February 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 19, 2023 ]

DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.336
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 394.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-19 07:00:13OBSERVATION2023141-14329.7600821.0399825.40003128.582420.350000000000020.800000000000025.86.6TT-2.2399211.7600849394.24236071739 50.6926368075550.3358806231041616 2113126WETL
2023-02-19 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023141-14329.7600821.0399825.40003128.582420.350000000000020.800000000000025.86.6TT-2.2399211.7600849394.24236071739 50.6926368075550.3358806231041616 2113126WETL
2023-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2023141-14327.35620.71424.035127.574716220760.15748040.60748045.86.4074804TF-4.6449.35649393.7204175330650.22877053710.23745596755452161113124.5WETL
2023-02-18 07:00:13FORECAST2023141-14327.80619.99423.9128.118871077870.177165450.627165455.86.42716545TT-4.1949.80649394.0024300871450.4791465447010.25460227246991162113126WETL
2023-02-18 03:00:16FORECAST2023141-14327.80619.99423.9128.118871077870.177165450.627165455.86.42716545TT-4.1949.80649394.0024300871450.4791465447010.25460227246991162113126WETL
2023-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2023141-14327.80619.99423.9127.725344533560.177165450.477165455.86.27716545TF-4.1945.80649393.7985208651850.298051754310.25460227246991162112124WETL
2023-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2023141-14327.37419.99423.684127.839059175610.204724520.504724525.86.30472452TF-4.6265.37449393.8574640420150.3503676524220.23812944644648161113124.5WETL
2023-02-17 15:00:01FORECAST2023141-14327.73419.99423.864127.747694911310.188976480.488976485.86.28897648TF-4.2665.73449393.81010736950.3083334491660.25181603321532162112124WETL
2023-02-17 11:00:01FORECAST2023141-14327.8618.62623.243128.911357515520.169291430.469291435.86.26929143TF-4.145.8649394.4124458745350.8442438187010.2567024847992162112124WETL
2023-02-17 07:00:15FORECAST2023141-14327.5918.98623.288128.580904249150.070866180.230866185.86.03086618TF-4.417.5949394.2415766325150.6919384160180.24629214249312161112123WETL
2023-02-17 03:00:11FORECAST2023141-14327.33818.80623.072128.887911441880.074803190.574803197.387.95480319TT-4.66210.33849394.4003272138750.8334344465890.23678353392289161113124.5WETL
2023-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2023141-14327.33818.80623.072132.534068216650.074803190.374803197.387.75480319TT-4.6628.33849396.2762859001752.5201083081350.23678353392289161112123WETL
2023-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2023141-14327.48219.18423.333132.407356230830.059055150.329055157.387.70905515TT-4.5188.48249396.2113831776552.4613017551130.24219218191885161112123WETL
2023-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2023141-14327.62618.89623.261132.384377211630.062992160.322992167.387.70299216TT-4.3748.62649396.1996109333452.4506387448990.24766700604012161112123WETL
2023-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2023141-14327.33817.8722.604132.853453848320.082677210.432677217.387.81267721TT-4.6628.33849396.4397846947752.6683946395860.23678353392289161112123WETL
2023-02-16 07:00:13FORECAST2023141-14327.80617.76222.784132.375143558680.106299270.416299277.387.79629927TT-4.1948.80649396.1948803021352.4463541572080.25460227246991162112124WETL
2023-02-16 03:00:10FORECAST2023141-14326.65418.03222.343132.082527405250.098425250.338425257.387.71842525TT-5.3467.65449396.0449082483652.3106124474240.21201978232804161112123WETL
2023-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2023141-14327.91417.56422.739136.910942951890.023622060.403622065.86.20362206TF-4.0865.91449398.5053758736454.559746782260.25881166899447162112124WETL
2023-02-15 19:00:04FORECAST2023141-14328.00417.36622.685137.0700459342900.455.86.25TF-3.9966.00449398.5859392634554.6341930036040.26234677244748162112124WETL
2023-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2023141-14327.30219.3123.306136.160815503750.07874020.23874025.86.0387402TF-4.6986.30249398.1251024100154.2090386166610.23544180862815161112123WETL
2023-02-15 11:00:05FORECAST2023141-14327.30219.3123.306136.160815503750.07874020.23874025.86.0387402TF-4.6986.30249398.1251024100154.2090386166610.23544180862815161112123WETL
2023-02-15 07:00:13FORECAST2023141-14327.3219.1323.225135.739212593650.051181130.231181135.86.03118113TF-4.687.3249397.9110545990354.0121332335810.23611214710155161112123WETL
2023-02-15 03:00:16FORECAST2023141-14326.79818.89622.847135.889403965990.114173290.274173295.86.07417329TF-5.2025.79849397.9873330484954.0822614739740.21710381609011161112123WETL
2023-02-14 23:00:07FORECAST2023141-14327.35619.70623.531125.067477050510.094488240.204488245.025.22448824TF-4.6447.35649392.4159736404149.0784757775250.23745596755452161112123WETL
2023-02-14 19:00:06FORECAST2023141-14327.37419.72423.549124.863791570880.098425250.168425255.025.18842525TF-4.6267.37449392.3096366898248.9852687068860.23812944644648161112123WETL
2023-02-14 15:00:06FORECAST2023141-14327.06820.71423.891124.146180101440.027559070.027559075.025.04755907TF-4.9326.06849391.9345585931248.6571782990820.22682348535811161111121.5WETL
2023-02-14 11:00:09FORECAST2023141-14328.5820.324.44124.3719531347400.045.025.06TF-3.4210.5849392.0526383965148.7603523690010.28554120966687162111122WETL
2023-02-14 07:00:21FORECAST2023141-14328.50820.28224.395124.5793665566200.025.025.04TF-3.4928.50849392.1610564194248.8551759969050.28258933782063162111122WETL
2023-02-14 03:00:18FORECAST2023141-14328.86820.26424.566124.50814514857005.035.03TF-3.1328.86849392.1238343889348.8226112883090.29749296063276162111122WETL
2023-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2023141-14329.44421.41625.43121.17854006753005.525.52TF-2.5568.44449390.3761650627247.305213759460.32205505060633162111122WETL
2023-02-13 19:00:08FORECAST2023141-14329.31821.39825.358121.24754645211005.535.53TF-2.6827.31849390.4125358678547.3365620781220.31661025201377162111122WETL
2023-02-13 15:00:07FORECAST2023141-14329.24620.85825.052121.14185093846005.515.51TF-2.7545.24649390.3568249349247.2885482990770.31351657473972162111122WETL
2023-02-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023141-14329.51622.98226.249126.93185909227005.535.53TF-2.4846.51649393.3867491085749.9333114066150.3251836849069162111122WETL
2023-02-13 07:00:18FORECAST2023141-14329.51622.85626.186126.83941390799005.615.61TF-2.4847.51649393.3387215565749.8908529095550.3251836849069162111122WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:18FORECAST2023141-14328.45422.38825.421126.45000667095005.535.53TF-3.5466.45449393.1362910503349.7120866259060.2803850935264162111122WETL
2023-02-12 23:00:08FORECAST2023141-14327.521.5624.53128.8111848715700.045.535.57TF-4.52.549394.3606642159750.7980644243990.24287293320172161111121.5WETL
2023-02-12 19:00:09FORECAST2023141-14327.96819.02223.495129.06032437377005.635.63TF-4.0320.96849394.4894260800350.912933291910.2609297732986162111122WETL
2023-02-12 15:00:08FORECAST2023141-14328.29219.2223.756128.489912377860.019685050.019685055.525.53968505TF-3.7080.29249394.1945017897150.6500169947960.27382269972687162111122WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023141-14327.55419.92223.738128.22929247360.062992160.062992165.45.46299216TF-4.446-0.44649394.0596092900450.5299848916870.24492137490471161111121.5WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:19FORECAST2023141-14328.34621.54224.944128.975763587050.208661530.208661535.425.62866153TF-3.6543.34649394.4457319700850.8739394744950.27600171352156162112124WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:22FORECAST2023141-14326.81620.2123.513129.986913255480.405512030.435512035.295.72551203TF-5.1843.81649394.9675972224651.3406187988810.2177442265207161112123WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:08FORECAST2023141-14326.22220.10223.162132.168967092390.468504190.468504195.285.74850419TF-5.778-3.77849396.0892220425852.3507033537970.19719080285019161112123WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:07FORECAST2023141-14326.20420.62423.414132.399328373560.468504190.468504195.35.76850419TF-5.796-6.79649396.2072705520652.4575765178140.1965868331115161112123WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:09FORECAST2023141-14326.99620.31823.657132.957457210650.641732630.641732635.235.87173263TF-5.004-6.00449396.4929971169552.7167006984970.22420788214307161113124.5WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:09FORECAST2023141-14326.47419.74223.108133.322460182740.66929170.67929175.265.9392917TF-5.526-6.52649396.6796365389952.8863050477720.20576349030816161113124.5WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:17FORECAST2023141-14326.61819.83223.225132.998143395850.657480670.667480675.265.92748067TF-5.382-5.38249396.5138100273552.7356005644520.2107597177412161113124.5WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:16FORECAST2023141-14327.46421.27224.368133.357405239460.755905920.755905925.185.93590592TF-4.536-5.53649396.6974961551852.9025487522470.2415124647024161113124.5WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:10FORECAST2023141-14328.4923.21625.853138.053017069660.744094891.054094894.976.02409489TF-3.51-9.5149399.0829552639255.0946060352580.28185366588164162114128WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:10FORECAST2023141-14329.04823.48626.267137.570412005450.700787781.000787784.995.99078778TF-2.952-6.95249398.8390925428354.8684582849970.30507679096815162114128WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:10FORECAST2023141-14328.63423.61226.123134.953476819650.389763990.6297639955.62976399TF-3.366-9.36649397.5115243358553.6455622850020.28776469084973162113126WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:09FORECAST2023141-14328.00423.16225.583140.55604129860.74803191.21803195.056.2680319TT-3.996-12.99649400.3429611172756.2706217764010.26234677244748162114128WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:18FORECAST2023141-14327.96823.16225.565138.300934040060.74803190.95803195.076.0280319TF-4.032-11.03249399.2081127566555.2108548706160.2609297732986162113126WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:23FORECAST2023141-14327.0522.31624.683137.886481664730.606299540.816299545.196.00629954TF-4.95-6.9549398.9988378786455.0165459434030.22616797831404161113124.5WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023141-14327.87822.92825.403141.650586187660.480315220.550315225.255.80031522TF-4.122-10.12249400.8914353652156.7865068170950.25740455185932162113126WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:10FORECAST2023141-14327.8622.92825.394141.859199534540.484252230.554252235.295.84425223TF-4.14-11.1449400.9957981977156.8849429490420.2567024847992162113126WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:09FORECAST2023141-14331.58623.95427.77137.053282521740.110236280.140236285.175.31023628TF-0.414-7.41449398.5774524758554.6263482009690.41960495732568162112124WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:11FORECAST2023141-14328.05816.03422.046140.961964621740.161417410.541417415.265.80141741TF-3.942-16.94249400.5465463911456.4618281017470.26447962592042162113126WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:13FORECAST2023141-14327.9516.03421.992141.068489656570.161417410.541417415.245.78141741TF-4.05-20.0549400.599937799856.5120281819330.26022275064263162113126WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:13FORECAST2023141-14330.95621.86626.411145.188498374970.448819141.108819145.216.31881914TT-1.044-20.04449402.6538820349758.4607124975090.39008551254158162114128WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:07FORECAST2023141-14322.60422.60422.604135.527307390860.019685050.319685055.25.51968505TF-9.396-35.39649397.8033837322953.9132214682120.098578711340141161112123WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:07FORECAST2023141-14322.5522.5522.55135.334550580530.019685050.319685055.25.51968505TF-9.45-32.4549397.7053919825653.8232804874150.097447299626542161112123WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:07FORECAST2023141-14323.12623.12623.126139.287838161020.031496080.401496085.726.12149608TF-8.874-38.87449399.7055572145855.6741229653650.11001281491845161112123WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023141-14322.15422.15422.154137.6956588908300.385.35.68TF-9.846-38.84649398.9024091379354.9271300593860.089439114013232161112123WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:18FORECAST2023141-14322.15422.15422.154137.4613690147400.385.315.69TF-9.846-39.84649398.7839511673854.8173878685770.089439114013232161112123WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:21FORECAST2023141-14327.82427.82427.824136.766344061200.335.325.65TF-4.176-31.17649398.4321285299854.4921055755670.2553013432179162112124WETL