MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 12, 2023

[ Saturday, February 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, February 13, 2023 ]

DAY 135 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2023 07:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.682
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 385.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-13 07:00:15OBSERVATION2023135-14938.9199229.0600633.98999120.573905833330.120.475.956.42TF6.919927.9199243385.26396012125 46.4527804486360.6817277195697116 3112125WETL
2023-02-13 03:00:14OBSERVATION2023135-14938.9199229.0600633.98999120.573905833330.120.475.956.42TF6.919927.9199243385.26396012125 46.4527804486360.6817277195697116 3112125WETL
2023-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2023135-14936.48226.76231.622122.123979345430.082677210.432677215.956.38267721TF4.4825.48243386.0995019922947.1520076065890.571845236853163112125WETL
2023-02-12 07:00:16FORECAST2023135-14936.10426.1531.127122.132316740070.086614220.436614225.956.38661422TF4.1045.10443386.1039872402147.1557744642260.55404327733191163112125WETL
2023-02-12 03:00:18FORECAST2023135-14936.71625.91631.316122.107034770180.082677210.432677215.956.38267721TF4.7165.71643386.0903860676547.1443521959950.58279503539106163112125WETL
2023-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2023135-14936.526.47431.487123.117511598930.074803190.424803195.956.37480319TF4.50.543386.6333219327247.6013324975850.57268960873538163112125WETL
2023-02-11 19:00:01FORECAST2023135-14936.46426.18631.325123.162649065560.082677210.432677215.956.38267721TF4.4640.46443386.6575420925647.6217671652980.57100053593088163112125WETL
2023-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2023135-14936.33825.95231.145123.105193463040.066929170.416929175.956.36692917TF4.3380.33843386.6267117037247.5957561422670.56507873473971163112125WETL
2023-02-11 11:00:07FORECAST2023135-14935.97826.09631.037123.060210523460.055118140.405118145.956.35511814TF3.978-0.02199999999999843386.6025709429747.5753937691530.54808315976746163112125WETL
2023-02-11 07:00:15FORECAST2023135-14936.21226.63631.424122.802637784870.047244120.397244125.956.34724412TF4.2121.21243386.4642875910747.4588339258340.55914230058681163112125WETL
2023-02-11 03:00:13FORECAST2023135-14935.09626.70830.902122.856301449880.055118140.405118145.956.35511814TF3.0960.09600000000000443386.4931055217247.4831134802760.50613364652375163112125WETL
2023-02-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023135-14935.2426.81631.028125.0575658630.03937010.27937015.956.2293701TF3.24-3.7643387.6718278905848.4812951496550.51299955094697163112125WETL
2023-02-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023135-14935.0625.98830.524125.079606881720.047244120.287244125.956.23724412TF3.06-3.9443387.6835970145648.4913119090720.50441680694276163112125WETL
2023-02-10 15:00:08FORECAST2023135-14934.95225.62830.29125.091236708430.043307110.283307115.956.23330711TF2.952-4.04843387.689806664948.4965973749640.49926592454535163112125WETL
2023-02-10 11:00:08FORECAST2023135-14934.77225.44830.11125.917223549570.031496080.271496085.956.22149608TF2.772-5.22843388.1303667224148.8722981529610.49068181648665162112124WETL
2023-02-10 07:00:16FORECAST2023135-14934.71825.35830.038125.563656430340.011811030.271811035.956.22181103TF2.718-4.28243387.9418962880148.7114029804450.48810724455088162112124WETL
2023-02-10 03:00:19FORECAST2023135-14935.65424.8930.272125.951681490870.031496080.391496085.956.34149608TF3.654-4.34643388.1487256224548.8879846606850.53271051132042163112125WETL
2023-02-09 23:00:05FORECAST2023135-14935.38424.81830.101130.358794397620.062992160.372992166.096.46299216TF3.384-8.61643390.4836026297650.9029716708540.51986160434558163112125WETL
2023-02-09 19:00:08FORECAST2023135-14934.9724.92629.948130.549165814770.070866180.420866186.096.51086618TT2.97-9.0343390.5838732151350.9903988289390.50012441963683163112125WETL
2023-02-09 15:00:07FORECAST2023135-14935.1525.75430.452129.984133591980.066929170.266929176.096.35692917TF3.15-7.8543390.2861232620650.7310035851930.50870868295116163112125WETL
2023-02-09 11:00:08FORECAST2023135-14935.07825.01630.047130.889430847920.169291430.409291436.096.49929143TF3.078-9.92243390.762973577251.1467432079620.50527523894681163112125WETL
2023-02-09 07:00:12FORECAST2023135-14933.92624.5329.228130.823435835760.185039470.435039476.046.47503947TF1.926-12.07443390.7282488451.1164119913390.45045969206358162112124WETL
2023-02-09 03:00:10FORECAST2023135-14933.825.2529.525131.327235307330.303149770.563149776.046.60314977TT1.8-12.243390.9931867575151.3480542408660.44450242918708162113126WETL
2023-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023135-14933.1724.5328.85125.634080379270.299212760.579212765.836.40921276TF1.17-20.8343387.9794495692948.7434413526910.41493000055706162113126WETL
2023-02-08 19:00:06FORECAST2023135-14932.73824.00828.373125.9396402390.350393890.650393895.856.50039389TT0.738-20.26243388.1423103278248.882502924220.39491645602468162113126WETL
2023-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2023135-14931.69422.1926.942126.364676836830.405512030.705512035.856.55551203TT-0.306-24.30643388.3686410580649.076077820860.34777261769834162113126WETL
2023-02-08 11:00:07FORECAST2023135-14930.25421.48825.871127.015079777250.228346580.508346585.876.37834658TF-1.746-24.74643388.7145060132949.3726039918520.2865458966629162113126WETL
2023-02-08 07:00:16FORECAST2023135-14930.3821.4725.925126.974381152330.224409570.524409575.886.40440957TF-1.62-25.6243388.6928804481749.3540379532240.29169520819663162113126WETL
2023-02-08 03:00:19FORECAST2023135-14930.57821.14625.862127.161381410320.185039470.535039475.916.44503947TF-1.422-27.42243388.7922261873849.4393565635820.29987288549858162113126WETL
2023-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2023135-14930.21822.22626.222121.438696457010.15748040.54748046.276.8174804TT-1.782-29.78243385.7305170815746.8426111780760.2850826163794162113126WETL
2023-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023135-14930.222.22626.213121.451523590070.15748040.52748046.276.7974804TT-1.8-28.843385.7374296454846.8483985361610.28435231307292162113126WETL
2023-02-07 15:00:06FORECAST2023135-14930.68622.47826.582121.90334411270.188976480.708976486.216.91897648TT-1.314-27.31443385.9807728701847.0523469760810.30437669285986162113126WETL
2023-02-07 11:00:08FORECAST2023135-14931.85623.34227.599126.10600022190.153543390.503543396.176.67354339TT-0.144-23.14443388.230925629748.9582491936070.35495640047893162113126WETL
2023-02-07 07:00:13FORECAST2023135-14931.87423.30627.59126.246410682880.153543390.513543396.166.67354339TT-0.126-23.12643388.3056892146949.0221995110980.35575784563864162113126WETL
2023-02-07 03:00:13FORECAST2023135-14931.65823.37827.518127.386645747430.161417410.581417416.376.95141741TT-0.342-25.34243388.9118374561449.5421744650060.34618350372688162113126WETL
2023-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2023135-14933.4425.0729.255123.1550621232700.496.226.71TT1.44-22.5643386.6534712351247.6183322701390.42755510265135162112124WETL
2023-02-06 19:00:07FORECAST2023135-14933.40425.0729.237121.9185814197500.396.016.4TF1.404-20.59643385.9889745704347.0592282232910.42586716630779162112124WETL
2023-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2023135-14933.04425.0729.057122.993313413480.173228440.613228446.086.69322844TT1.044-24.95643386.5666645166147.5451149240950.40906738456692162113126WETL
2023-02-06 11:00:07FORECAST2023135-14932.8122.62227.716124.663620058660.279527710.489527716.246.72952771TT0.81-22.1943387.4613636043748.3023362197870.40498288290736162112124WETL
2023-02-06 07:00:12FORECAST2023135-14932.75622.53227.644125.568262574330.283464720.503464726.326.82346472TT0.756-22.24443387.9443527006748.7134983441450.40244463541178162113126WETL
2023-02-06 03:00:13FORECAST2023135-14932.23422.04627.14124.392689884610.03937010.42937016.176.5993701TT0.234-22.76643387.3164977564348.179340992610.37813492539462162112124WETL
2023-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2023135-14936.57224.49430.533117.88787006880.094488240.194488246.066.25448824TF4.572-19.42843383.8082841303345.2463411308840.58556239063484163112125WETL
2023-02-05 19:00:06FORECAST2023135-14936.64424.45830.551118.201685025940.094488240.204488246.146.34448824TF4.644-19.35643383.9788665004645.3869490347060.58896501397325163112125WETL
2023-02-05 15:00:07FORECAST2023135-14939.81227.35633.584117.865772139450.161417410.341417416.096.43141741TF7.812-13.18843383.7962670947145.2364433653580.72887557004657164112126WETL
2023-02-05 11:00:14FORECAST2023135-14940.29832.01836.158118.1138494083800.195.775.96TF8.298-1.70243383.9311348431645.3475842440550.74806495756681164112126WETL
2023-02-05 07:00:20FORECAST2023135-14940.35232.01836.185118.3239276296700.185.856.03TF8.352-0.64843384.0452778916145.4417456677650.75015204409225164112126WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:18FORECAST2023135-14940.22632.57636.401118.0331615362800.135.855.98TF8.226-0.77443383.8872780303845.3114290994820.74526794823271164112126WETL
2023-02-04 23:00:09FORECAST2023135-14938.6632.97235.816115.19067650044005.735.73TF6.66-1.3443382.3365336300844.0416039596820.68067257770918163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 19:00:07FORECAST2023135-14938.7532.95435.852116.05881196032005.95.9TF6.75-1.2543382.8113412012244.428629464750.6845657103064163111122.5WETL
2023-02-04 15:00:07FORECAST2023135-14939.09232.7235.906116.76576980108005.955.95TF7.0921.09243383.1972235173644.7443187896390.69917090986241164111123WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:06FORECAST2023135-14939.72232.82836.275117.8632374575100.255.525.77TF7.722-9.27843383.7948886707245.2353080983770.7252437331394164112126WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:15FORECAST2023135-14939.72232.82836.275117.6629864342300.255.485.73TF7.722-7.27843383.6859590604345.1456357959310.7252437331394164112126WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:21FORECAST2023135-14939.77631.80235.789117.9670731559300.255.565.81TF7.776-11.22443383.8513498793545.2818202722180.7274257084845164112126WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:06FORECAST2023135-14938.04830.72234.385120.0670238295700.395.796.18TF6.048-30.95243384.9900191020746.2246057976760.65368784840844163112125WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:08FORECAST2023135-14938.06630.66834.367118.3970337398700.125.85.92TF6.066-26.93443384.084984785645.474522902640.65449360552724163112125WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:06FORECAST2023135-14935.2424.33229.786119.049184804230.027559070.377559075.535.90755907TF3.24-36.7643384.4388684189545.7671338923360.52172052952644163112125WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:09FORECAST2023135-14931.80221.54226.672119.062267919370.027559070.217559075.245.45755907TF-0.198-43.19843384.4459618519545.7730081105370.35837055431374162112124WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:19FORECAST2023135-14931.6421.3826.51118.287501013730.027559070.177559075.155.32755907TF-0.36-41.3643384.0254903664945.4254155810240.35105237713895162112124WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:19FORECAST2023135-14932.75619.97626.366119.6253023330300.265.35.56TF0.756-40.24443384.751005878946.02595540120.40244463541178162112124WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2023135-14923.14423.14423.144122.2388704541400.345.075.41TF-8.856-52.85643386.1613013194747.2039212863920.078614939711152161112123WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:09FORECAST2023135-14923.21623.21623.216121.9500403122500.345.045.38TF-8.784-51.78443386.005906768847.0734358912210.079907998486462161112123WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:08FORECAST2023135-14923.01823.01823.018126.75284414741006.246.24TF-8.982-47.98243388.5751256392949.2530023397180.076390209719121161111121.5WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:07FORECAST2023135-149232323131.21943122757007.057.05TT-9-4543390.9365232875651.2984682318760.076076327497935161111121.5WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:17FORECAST2023135-149232323130.33202060685006.856.85TT-9-4043390.4694967091450.8906784914420.076076327497935161111121.5WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:16FORECAST2023135-14919.63419.63419.634127.5388731754500.445.696.13TF-12.366-51.36643388.9926287112549.6116815393880.032741960083462161112123WETL