MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 5, 2023

[ Monday, December 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 6, 2023 ]

DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.861
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 130

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 4.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 8.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 36 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 290.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 12.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 112.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-06 07:00:05OBSERVATION20246614643.7399639.7441.7399804.56000000000018.00000000000014.8812.88TT11.73996129.7399627290.96386641712 00.8609945674529816 531552112.5WETH
2023-12-06 03:00:06OBSERVATION20246614643.7399639.7441.7399804.56000000000018.00000000000014.8812.88TT11.73996129.7399627290.96386641712 00.8609945674529816 531552112.5WETH
2023-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20246614639.79435.79837.79645.32143363.921261967.361261964.8812.24126196TT7.794125.79427324.3393778036914.6995255749950.743814545700611643151220WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:06FORECAST20246614641.0937.61639.35344.6651599166674.011813197.451813194.8812.33181319TT9.09127.0927323.8829897063414.4662855295220.787049738490881643151220WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:01FORECAST20246614640.62235.90638.26452.1985324.208663697.738663694.8812.61866369TT8.622123.62227329.076395075417.1773047387880.771948576984221643151220WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20246614640.38835.72638.05752.21398084.0035454697.5335454694.8812.413545469TT8.388123.38827329.0869434937917.1829393491150.76417815080891643151220WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:01FORECAST20246614640.80235.5138.15652.28620643.673230337.203230334.8812.08323033TT8.802123.80227329.1362535387217.2092860862480.777826684496061643151220WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20246614640.31633.92637.12151.6321169215623.547246017.077246014.8811.95724601TT8.316123.31627328.6893617429316.9709275563840.761758259017511643151220WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:05FORECAST20246614640.7333.9837.35551.842664237983.397639636.647639634.8811.52763963TT8.73123.7327328.8332944592817.0475940749210.775485862969341643151220WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20246614640.74833.18836.96852.1441483829353.448820766.898820764.8811.77882076TT8.748123.74827329.0392587265817.157471930850.776072374398231643151220WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20246614640.51432.28836.40154.2620209313963.38582866.80582864.8811.6858286TT8.514123.51427330.4816840291217.9326040562310.768380216055971643151220WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:01FORECAST20246614640.47832.48636.48254.6985776212373.50393896.92393894.8811.8039389TT8.478123.47827330.7780475540718.0930887095370.767183895072011643151220WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20246614641.55832.75637.15754.3142612498073.303151396.603151394.8811.48315139TT9.558125.55827330.517165520717.9517956756370.801551811679911643151220WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20246614640.33431.44235.88856.273662985643.196852126.546852124.8811.42685212TT8.334123.33427331.8445919500818.6741107310060.762364502199361643151220WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:04FORECAST20246614641.34232.37836.8655.7089803722223.118111926.638111924.8811.51811192TT9.342124.34227331.462716522418.465449968870.794933852268691643151220WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:14FORECAST20246614640.4632.0936.27558.5765347208273.444883757.164883754.8812.04488375TT8.46123.4627333.3962857263519.5291991066440.766584451694481643151220WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20246614639.25431.11835.18641.392317809733.18897816.69897815.3712.0689781TT7.254118.25427321.5955866671113.3115867295320.724537600120991643151220WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20246614640.11831.9136.01439.5203551099783.015749666.645749665.3712.01574966TT8.118120.11827320.2786902171712.6575275715410.755034075342011643151220WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20246614640.2832.84636.56337.8664128239293.035434717.015434715.3712.38543471TT8.28121.2827319.1099461369312.0835489566430.760543239015541643151220WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20246614638.60634.37636.49143.6779180142452.980316577.390316575.3712.76031657TT6.606117.60627323.1950039428914.1164848848310.700502918046911643151220WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20246614639.66835.47437.57145.1781662786732.988190597.018190595.3412.35819059TT7.668120.66827324.239811252914.6485601069490.739380236122421643151220WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:06FORECAST20246614639.30832.97236.1446.0851549935012.736221957.136221955.4512.58622195TT7.308119.30827324.8695306412914.971662672270.726496908559431643151220WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20246614639.50635.67237.58936.4001653033853.039371727.599371725.4613.05937172TT7.506118.50627318.0697212286511.5777904307250.733621558835251643151220WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20246614641.23434.8838.05734.8621486415143.275592327.445592325.4212.86559232TT9.234122.23427316.9744087450311.0504089532250.791576361052921643151220WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20246614638.98434.26836.62636.5347665894463.129922957.339922955.5212.85992295TT6.984117.98427318.1653752853911.6240977228950.714638873445681643151220WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20246614637.99431.2834.63744.5053985785563.283466347.963466345.3813.34346634TT5.994112.99427323.7717727387514.4095917942240.676969314136571633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20246614639.36232.48635.92445.6835207662022.933072457.743072455.4213.16307245TT7.362122.36227324.5908562312414.8284531211590.728449302351441643151220WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20246614639.50630.45234.97949.6956688069422.625985677.345985675.4312.77598567TT7.506118.50627327.3619663905316.2684718617330.733621558835251643151220WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20246614638.73233.83636.28440.6852555192992.208662616.608662615.1211.72866261TT6.732116.73227321.098915149313.0639914098190.705250069894231643151220WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20246614639.1134.17836.64439.3671634227122.590552587.860552585.1913.05055258TT7.11119.1127320.1706448346912.6042100983620.719279303483281643151220WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20246614639.99235.90637.94942.0361123609862.708662888.158662885.2213.37866288TT7.992120.99227322.0470409693713.5376055997120.7507025429041643151220WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20246614639.5635.31237.43644.4321904801992.342520957.892520955.3413.23252095TT7.56121.5627323.720794247414.3836239924020.735548239205351643151220WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20246614639.34434.44836.89644.8805431464382.488190327.498190325.3712.86819032TT7.344121.34427324.0328561271114.5427705802760.727799275357881643151220WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:06FORECAST20246614638.80434.35836.58145.1499095665622.346457967.466457965.3212.78645796TT6.804120.80427324.2201693956314.6385113278680.707947071890731643151220WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20246614637.56233.54835.55543.600851067182.669292786.429292785.5311.95929278TT5.562109.56227323.1412251639714.089232432040.65991273878481633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20246614638.51633.4435.97849.4447952475352.511812386.131812385.5611.69181238TT6.516112.51627327.1895195209816.1778187998540.697091043691821633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:03FORECAST20246614639.48836.17637.83243.4872270469772.692914845.932914845.2211.15291484TT7.488117.48827323.0619169608314.0490669331070.732977759420091643151220WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20246614637.97633.04435.5148.3097825533842.129922414.599922415.079.66992241TT5.976111.97627326.4079534886115.768697256730.676265686947271633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20246614637.43633.20635.32146.1907130848571.555118953.885118954.828.70511895TT5.436109.43627324.9427250895715.0093361836240.654873668873921633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20246614637.18434.23235.70844.5279503448771.980316034.290316034.939.22031603TT5.184113.18427323.7874747613614.4175925984670.644713546415111633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20246614638.9335.63637.28347.1184786129861.948819955.268819955.1710.43881995TT6.93111.9327325.5851982801715.3410792018690.712639006989511643151220WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246614639.16432.05435.60949.205817318822.141733444.961733445.2410.20173344TT7.164107.16427327.0251473107716.0915396572340.721256837894161643151220WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:04FORECAST20246614637.1843234.59250.5677497829082.157481485.127481485.1810.30748148TT5.184105.18427327.9605680926116.5842279459670.644713546415111633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20246614638.55233.49436.02356.1693878152252.102363345.322363345.3210.64236334TT6.552106.55227331.7741154658718.6355489586560.698457879727041633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:05FORECAST20246614637.52632.50435.01550.0808010116162.094489325.174489325.0910.26448932TT5.526102.52627327.6264869773916.4077969004490.658475866811071633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20246614637.27433.33235.30357.7762361469991.125984865.225984864.779.99598486TT5.274103.27427332.8580667360319.2312862671740.648354427856261633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246614636.1432.57634.35846.7388334702481.000000544.610000544.469.07000054TT4.1499.1427325.3224788314215.205193162230.601591357980211633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:05FORECAST20246614637.36433.58435.47453.3038596319010.893701274.453701274.518.96370127TT5.36492.36427329.8300675234417.581215621650.651981759014441633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20246614638.55234.1636.35654.824316927021.751969456.321969454.510.82196945TT6.552106.55227330.8633467633118.1393569824860.698457879727041633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20246614638.76834.19636.48264.1994508786681.818898626.848898624.8311.67889862TT6.768102.76827337.1471335854521.6446608415030.706600005194331643151220WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20246614639.8335.8737.8558.3836653714271.65354426.00354424.7910.7935442TT7.83114.8327333.2666767474119.4573301346680.745074236917951643151220WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST20246614636.75233.54835.1565.6570584038592.102363346.902363344.4311.33236334TT4.752108.75227338.1107400578622.1993566069510.627058252564321633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 23:00:04FORECAST20246614638.28234.30436.29343.1787771417483.098426877.078426874.3711.44842687TT6.28299.28227322.8465071861813.9401173847840.688139935290691633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 19:00:04FORECAST20246614637.50833.99835.75345.5056466456213.429135717.669135714.3812.04913571TT5.50897.50827324.467347188714.7650964492110.657756567535181633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 15:00:04FORECAST20246614636.7729.71433.24260.9841212892842.366143015.896143014.4910.38614301TT4.7780.7727335.008861630620.4302210506650.627799541988761633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 11:00:05FORECAST20246614639.9230.23635.07868.9257179350611.673229256.243229254.9311.17322925TT7.92108.9227340.2586842859923.4525740980510.748209247098241643151220WETL
2023-11-26 07:00:08FORECAST20246614636.12226.9631.54176.1394208008461.610237096.020237094.8510.87023709TT4.12290.12227344.9364105435126.2632585119060.600835146761261633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 03:00:06FORECAST20246614638.08433.94436.01461.1013851862441.523622875.853622874.8810.73362287TT6.084101.08427335.0871521745720.474289155980.68047792385861633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 23:00:04FORECAST20246614637.25633.09835.17747.6337349904690.370078944.480078943.447.92007894TT5.25699.25627325.9413574906415.5258042451430.6476273260611633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20246614635.72634.59235.15953.0881046126290.350393894.250393893.337.58039389TT3.72686.72627329.6831201812817.5022519732020.584107580450461633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20246614632.70220.85826.7846.4621934764210.862205194.742205193.197.93220519TT0.70279.70227325.1308806814115.1062938833790.453554587047061623151215WETL
2023-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20246614629.33627.08628.21141.9618711032170.385826982.815826983.175.98582698TT-2.66476.33627321.9950177010213.5115134286480.314544839099421623151215WETL
2023-11-25 07:00:06FORECAST20246614629.33627.08628.21143.3095904515610.385826982.795826983.095.88582698TT-2.66493.33627322.9378828755713.9863074486350.314544839099421623151215WETL
2023-11-25 03:00:06FORECAST20246614635.13234.98835.0634.6703532511440.098425251.658425252.33.95842525TF3.132108.13227316.8375196113310.9848687281410.558737296250591633151217.5DRYL