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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 7, 2023

[ Monday, November 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 8, 2023 ]

DAY 38 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.183
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 158

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 21.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-08 07:00:05OBSERVATION20243811831.3727.4400629.4050315.9514116666670.0899999999999180.739999999999926.827.5599999999999TT-0.63158.3755332.90178068971 5.3102533483480.1830092820510116 15132221WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:05OBSERVATION20243811831.3727.4400629.4050315.9514116666670.0899999999999180.739999999999926.827.5599999999999TT-0.63158.3755332.90178068971 5.3102533483480.1830092820510116 15132221WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:01FORECAST20243811830.09224.90827.52.47810222813340.767716951.417716956.828.23771695TT-1.908157.09255323.675994048390.802102202044620.148816857945861615144256WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20243811830.99225.01628.0042.50169495113140.803150041.453150046.828.27315004TT-1.008157.99255323.692426571190.809779709272610.172421408423231615144256WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20243811830.95625.14228.0491.99707709154450.645669641.295669646.828.11566964TT-1.044157.95655323.340741338170.645736387289490.171433778044341615144256WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20243811831.42427.84229.6332.51126924984890.795276022.725276026.829.54527602TT-0.576158.42455323.699094866960.812895583143330.184554208792771615154270WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20243811830.1123.91827.0142.86026753844480.830709112.760709116.829.58070911TT-1.89157.1155323.942054107180.926560941699870.149266761825531615154270WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:01FORECAST20243811830.97426.11428.5442.42243151016860.740157882.670157886.829.49015788TT-1.026157.97455323.637215038580.783988987572660.171927141538681615154270WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20243811830.86624.67427.777.08129729537410.795276022.725276026.829.54527602TT-1.134157.86655326.863581656312.31461819673910.168980517865431615154270WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20243811831.53227.08629.3097.00481932069560.881890242.811890246.829.63189024TT-0.468158.53255326.810926618752.28925149299350.187668251408681615154270WETL
2023-11-06 03:00:06FORECAST20243811831.2826.2428.766.70940682998450.7874022.6674026.829.487402TT-0.72158.2855326.607439215282.19134218339470.180452356160221615154270WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:01FORECAST20243811831.13625.55628.3467.70790958840370.960630443.040630446.829.86063044TT-0.864159.13655327.294618816022.5227573306050.176408040277421615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:03FORECAST20243811830.41624.06227.2397.90510083391790.972441472.952441476.829.77244147TT-1.584157.41655327.430121849662.58836812928360.157053645294811615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20243811830.32625.21427.778.70872031813990.94488243.15488246.829.9748824TT-1.674156.32655327.98164013492.85630037341970.154736214024391615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20243811830.57826.43828.5088.16931319237430.807087052.797087056.829.61708705TT-1.422158.57855327.61157312732.67636154632330.161282103921091615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20243811829.24623.32426.2858.49586069175990.728346852.688346856.829.50834685TT-2.754154.24655327.8356656852.78524614545010.128688161771615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20243811830.77625.8828.3285.81014483520710.539370372.589370376.829.40937037TT-1.224157.77655325.987064731391.89403206049340.16654986810311615154270WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243811830.14624.45827.30216.9185026377020.921260342.871260346.769.63126034TT-1.854154.14655333.551926408735.64319914675670.150169284084631615152235WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243811831.0125.12428.06719.0921932191321.051181673.061181676.929.98118167TT-0.99157.0155335.007416435656.39602632443170.172916578499851615152235WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243811829.67823.88226.7819.2750040760490.799213032.719213036.929.63921303TT-2.322155.67855335.129459529676.45962169843850.138718400586571615152235WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243811830.54225.28627.91414.5843773802890.724409842.514409846.929.43440984TT-1.458156.54255331.980036750114.84172213868570.16033610394431615153252.5WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243811829.98425.66427.82416.5871631188070.744094892.774094897.099.86409489TT-2.016153.98455333.329356796965.52898841347830.146136427283671615152235WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243811830.70426.61828.66120.3275083423141.185040013.195040016.719.90504001TT-1.296155.70455335.831001845816.82660749162850.164621639265311615152235WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243811831.02825.39428.21110.1596486126750.767716952.737716957.2910.02771695TT-0.972150.02855328.974555138823.34226588272150.173412651563281615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243811831.89223.6327.76110.46872464420.665354692.785354697.069.84535469TT-0.108150.89255329.185593049553.44615333047330.198280249270171615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243811830.39826.5128.45410.0090275548720.889764263.02976426710.02976426TT-1.602149.39855328.871650634763.29168541321940.156588346997991615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243811831.67628.29229.98411.9016007351171.000000543.290000546.8110.10000054TT-0.324152.67655330.16180301183.92945395743270.191870349399181615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 08:00:04FORECAST20243811830.5627.15828.85912.4766809370710.948819413.288819416.699.97881941TT-1.44150.5655330.552603698754.12419936926730.16080865092491615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:13FORECAST20243811829.40825.35827.38314.9808795853790.775590973.775590976.7610.53559097TT-2.592142.40855332.247714080064.97736299715080.132389051018281615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:04FORECAST20243811831.2827.03229.15613.9770183084990.732283863.492283866.239.72228386TT-0.72146.2855331.569487544834.63435279795350.180452356160221615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 20:00:03FORECAST20243811831.126.34828.72411.8346151316750.704724793.254724796.319.56472479TT-0.9148.155330.116245240323.90679871113260.175405969331661615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243811831.04627.03229.0397.4514176605720.618110572.958110576.169.11811057TT-0.954150.04655327.118264812282.43749481551790.17390962740121615154270WETL
2023-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20243811834.64629.26431.95510.8157328500820.716535823.196535826.119.30653582TT2.646155.64655329.422333807273.56294395731010.290653843290981625153260WETL
2023-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243811831.85628.0429.9489.74984102669570.724409843.064409846.379.43440984TT-0.144148.85655328.694481872483.20471894460880.197203066818441615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20243811831.42428.56229.99312.3910885827850.704724793.124724795.979.09472479TT-0.576144.42455330.494474831864.09518631376250.184554208792771615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243811834.03429.89431.96410.4130398063940.559055422.739055426.188.91905542TT2.034155.03455329.147583533453.42742688951220.268514013644361625153260WETL
2023-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20243811834.86230.30832.5858.44467942185920.492126252.452126256.288.73212625TT2.862156.86255327.800554924462.76817060064460.298666601845821625153260WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20243811832.86428.2230.54211.0328293410410.484252232.694252235.818.50425223TT0.864146.86455329.570338317273.63609329852340.228683263351771615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20243811831.96428.59830.2819.92179639418880.704724792.484724795.187.66472479TT-0.036000000000001140.96455328.812036186573.26240607500180.20044521798221615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243811831.69427.64429.6698.32552602435040.700787782.420787784.797.21078778TT-0.306146.69455327.718797056062.7284313735590.192399622927561615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:06FORECAST20243811832.23429.44430.8399.68195119387010.610236552.300236555.667.96023655TT0.234148.23455328.6480560233.1819544383750.208689164637521615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 00:00:05FORECAST20243811832.14429.17430.6597.39228168189040.779527981.589527985.747.32952798TT0.144142.14455327.077588882472.41784966885280.205919271945351615154270WETL
2023-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243811833.04429.2131.1276.84087070394260.70866181.52866185.917.4386618TT1.044138.04455326.698013626592.23489887045440.234587069757941615154270WETL
2023-10-31 16:00:04FORECAST20243811833.99829.60631.80211.7072274805770.988189512.698189515.388.07818951TT1.998143.99855330.029585868583.86373143708410.267238521955851625153260WETL
2023-10-31 12:00:04FORECAST20243811835.67229.60632.63911.2301680548590.622047582.842047585.788.62204758TT3.672143.67255329.704802264073.70264033791950.329568228884631625153260WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:04FORECAST20243811836.2330.61433.42211.0111158949450.637795622.857795626.118.96779562TT4.23148.2355329.555538950583.6287742332060.351571282480591625153260WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20243811831.92826.85229.3912.5814907324910.881890242.841890246.639.47189024TT-0.071999999999999127.92855330.623766615764.15973985561730.199360967859871615153252.5WETL
2023-10-31 00:00:04FORECAST20243811832.61228.68830.6513.9597703269050.948819413.528819417.0310.55881941TT0.612132.61255331.557819383244.62847100867960.220559636958931615153252.5WETL
2023-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20243811834.71831.15432.93614.9658223012460.996063533.696063536.139.82606353TT2.718140.71855332.237553880824.97220819318090.293313587175731625153260WETH
2023-10-30 16:00:04FORECAST20243811834.2530.12832.1890.516380014987541.149606923.449606926.489.92960692TT2.25137.2555322.306187802170.166432474087860.276230576841451625154280WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:05FORECAST20243811836.3231.20833.76416.2904608052941.358268453.668268457.0910.75826845TT4.32144.3255333.129894893085.42683949582740.355169597378191625152240WETL
2023-10-30 08:00:04FORECAST20243811834.55629.60632.08112.6218493383411.370079483.630079486.7210.35007948TT2.556135.55655330.651163927714.17342917464260.287345101787221625153260WETH
2023-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243811832.4529.26430.85717.1355489089711.114173833.734173836.7410.47417383TT0.45136.4555333.697620684375.71809190004420.215425662064391615152235WETL
2023-10-30 00:00:05FORECAST20243811832.70227.37430.03811.4982875712840.775590972.625590975.167.78559097TT0.702123.70255329.887387336133.79314004573050.223441817880321615153252.5WETL
2023-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243811832.97228.50830.7412.8389010851260.858268182.878268185.818.68826818TT0.972125.97255330.79846066064.24708871553320.232215504354881615153252.5WETL
2023-10-29 16:00:05FORECAST20243811835.0629.19232.12612.8385422943821.015748582.465748585.327.78574858TT3.06132.0655330.798217243254.24696690298350.306098549324951625153260WETH
2023-10-29 12:00:05FORECAST20243811837.29228.83233.06210.5236096139150.767716952.597716955.838.42771695TT5.292128.29255329.2230513293.46461486808830.394794461599511625153260WETH
2023-10-29 08:00:05FORECAST20243811835.45630.18232.81910.0759784399950.870079212.530079215.648.17007921TT3.456128.45655328.917396427723.31416459494520.321201698857761625153260WETH
2023-10-29 04:00:06FORECAST20243811837.81429.08433.4497.24583754167420.23622061.54622064.736.2762206TT5.814130.81455326.976832842542.36922101066820.416562893795921625154280WETH
2023-10-29 00:00:05FORECAST20243811832.12628.18430.15511.8338525582220.177165452.047165455.537.57716545TT0.126140.12655330.115726559673.90654083525730.20536791669981615153252.5WETL
2023-10-28 20:00:04FORECAST20243811831.38825.82628.6076.09721365050240.141732362.021732365.267.28173236TT-0.612133.38855326.185259084881.9888212142850.183523360733211615154270WETL
2023-10-28 16:00:04FORECAST20243811836.01429.7532.8828.55016606388410.338582860.958582866.247.19858286TT4.014149.01455327.872914614162.80336786780080.342989904367611625133236WETH
2023-10-28 12:00:05FORECAST20243811840.02825.77232.96.4016322869580.027559071.227559076.177.39755907TT8.028154.02855326.395274058752.0894625247250.510953140448641635144272WETH
2023-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20243811837.70633.85435.788.11377157068460.027559071.217559076.167.37755907TT5.706139.70655327.57343930332.65785605913050.412035662424141625143248WETH
2023-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243811838.22837.8538.0391.93994349930940.145669371.435669374.415.84566937TF6.228137.22855323.300894592890.627185468786380.434014895410651625144264WETM