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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 6, 2023

[ Sunday, November 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 7, 2023 ]

DAY 37 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/07/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.242
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.99 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 87.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-07 07:00:05OBSERVATION20243711733.3531.5199432.4349700.160000000000082.70000000000014.777.4700000000001TT1.35189.3556322.99112145477 00.2417415062307516 15155287.5WETH
2023-11-07 03:00:04OBSERVATION20243711733.3531.5199432.4349700.160000000000082.70000000000014.777.4700000000001TT1.35189.3556322.99112145477 00.2417415062307516 15155287.5WETH
2023-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20243711732.77429.44431.1094.5048196047911.440945663.980945664.778.75094566TT0.774188.77456326.118767549751.46910621754840.222303216811931615154270WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20243711733.13430.48831.8114.21330202776631.437008653.977008654.778.74700865TT1.134189.13456325.917451350021.37318865865750.23434617783581615154270WETL
2023-11-06 03:00:06FORECAST20243711732.84630.90231.8744.13574699023611.389764533.929764534.778.69976453TT0.846188.84656325.863868285941.34769051249030.224683223326191615154270WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:01FORECAST20243711733.58431.13632.364.39124405799021.425197624.125197624.778.89519762TT1.584189.58456326.04035227631.43172275959830.249893728502441625154280WETH
2023-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20243711732.77428.74230.7584.28977145472171.326772374.026772374.778.79677237TT0.774188.77456325.9702740281.39833797661310.222303216811931615154270WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20243711732.3628.59830.4795.22330354505991.562992974.262992974.779.03299297TT0.36188.3656326.614302194421.70600564251940.208899896684621615154270WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20243711733.92630.0231.9735.31979716245551.33858344.03858344.778.8085834TT1.926189.92656326.680784486251.73787551033870.262065687294051625154280WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:05FORECAST20243711732.25229.01230.6325.74707439140261.413386594.013386594.778.78338659TT0.252187.25256326.974974736261.87914950393630.205483147712971615154270WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20243711732.91829.06630.9923.83666899600071.362205464.102205464.778.87220546TT0.918188.91856325.657135320291.24943863440980.227077589462121615154270WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:02FORECAST20243711733.45830.3831.91913.275734811241.350394433.940394434.778.71039443TT1.458186.45856332.106597256614.40895911424190.245486057770551615153252.5WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:02FORECAST20243711734.01630.45232.23415.0474278142041.480315764.160315764.778.93031576TT2.016188.01656333.300006963165.01530779525190.265318537302961625152240WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243711733.69228.88631.28916.1193161654381.468504734.068504734.778.83850473TT1.692187.69256334.019426166395.38416473577430.253704855049631625152240WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243711733.51230.21831.86511.757223748841.311024333.941024334.778.71102433TT1.512187.51256331.079447697923.89257514522680.247369936641531615153252.5WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:03FORECAST20243711733.76428.77831.27113.6527812670071.488189784.348189784.779.11818978TT1.764185.76456332.361025214194.53765237892740.256262435790361625153260WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243711733.92630.66832.29715.7625446261231.570866993.950866994.778.72086699TT1.926186.92656333.780189285125.26122512892250.262065687294051625152240WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:02FORECAST20243711732.12628.5830.3536.9890201727051.622048124.142048125.129.26204812TT0.126181.12656327.828272594692.29119841034740.201539088173631615154270WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:02FORECAST20243711732.8127.5930.27.63367721386031.783465534.063465535.129.18346553TT0.81180.8156328.270133985022.50590824179230.223491421097841615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243711732.927.89630.3986.19755743605571.748032444.018032445.129.13803244TT0.9180.956327.284797159722.02836632834520.226477655267471615154270WETL
2023-11-03 12:00:03FORECAST20243711733.96229.17431.5687.75232236617151.818898623.978898625.129.09889862TT1.962182.96256328.351377045112.545485724230.263364373598141625153260WETL
2023-11-03 08:00:03FORECAST20243711733.13428.00430.5698.44263966659921.744095433.944095435.099.03409543TT1.134182.13456328.823591090112.7761390934510.23434617783581615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:12FORECAST20243711731.38826.20428.79611.4133575071462.251969724.711969725.059.76196972TT-0.612175.38856330.846299419993.77606709519660.179360703078831615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20243711732.68429.01230.84810.5788742087571.830709654.480709654.518.99070965TT0.684176.68456330.279655399943.49398692818750.219348498369781615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 20:00:03FORECAST20243711733.51229.87631.6948.64580675560021.77165454.44165454.428.8616545TT1.512178.51256328.962410644132.84414543228550.247369936641531615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20243711733.58429.26431.4244.62266721904861.448819684.188819684.318.49881968TT1.584180.58456326.200108450541.50791454818440.249893728502441625154280WETL
2023-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20243711733.67430.54232.1087.77206761744871.547244934.347244934.248.58724493TT1.674182.67456328.364895361562.55207416994650.253067557718591625153260WETH
2023-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243711732.77428.74230.7586.49305645990921.519685864.169685864.548.70968586TT0.774178.77456327.487835934862.12639700865860.222303216811931615154270WETL
2023-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20243711732.37829.94831.1639.19869431997151.570866994.030866994.368.39086699TT0.378175.37856329.339823886723.02949636732710.209472584897411615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243711734.8831.04632.9637.89586543035281.267717223.817717224.548.35771722TT2.88182.8856328.4496363932.59339412960740.297550624699651625153260WETH
2023-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20243711734.75431.6433.1976.32743347604951.177165993.457165994.788.23716599TT2.754183.75456327.37405437112.07143755081780.292740590569011625154280WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20243711733.06229.80431.4338.7081866800851.248032173.618032174.48.01803217TT1.062176.06256329.005019087042.86503712489490.23190913569861615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20243711731.42429.1230.2726.40372099305721.047244662.777244664.186.95724466TT-0.576171.42456327.426469184522.09674775439950.180405704050331615154270WETL
2023-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243711732.6329.62431.1274.76691449578651.019685592.609685593.96.50968559TT0.63176.6356326.299637818631.55544247348750.217586534325681615154270WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:06FORECAST20243711733.51230.07431.7936.65061252207350.842520143.152520144.27.35252014TT1.512177.51256327.596031176322.17871426712280.247369936641531615154270WETL
2023-11-01 00:00:05FORECAST20243711734.10631.17232.6393.24570590141390.460630172.200630174.356.55063017TT2.106172.10656325.248179332241.05565993508280.26859173089071625154280WETH
2023-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243711733.96231.47832.723.15548947138790.413386052.323386054.416.73338605TT1.962166.96256325.185694081571.02612003392040.263364373598141625154280WETH
2023-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20243711735.45630.93833.1976.65345033290160.492126252.792126254.37.09212625TT3.456172.45656327.597979530992.17965688596830.319983811634011625154280WETH
2023-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243711734.73631.132.9188.28368417758110.724409843.594409844.418.00440984TT2.736169.73656328.714930378582.72297066771180.292056398053681625153260WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:04FORECAST20243711736.35631.87434.1158.12195751611650.803150043.703150044.638.33315004TT4.356174.35656328.6043302812.66891041015420.356364513140481625153260WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20243711731.85629.26430.567.48835312297551.066929713.416929715.178.58692971TT-0.144157.85656328.170588977472.45745725483810.193241418515021615154270WETL
2023-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243711734.57428.43631.5058.21841890714151.216536093.936536095.679.60653609TT2.574161.57456328.670302851282.70115023116890.285932394434991625153260WETL
2023-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20243711736.84230.5633.7019.54703728247511.271654233.521654235.318.83165423TT4.842167.84256329.577338456123.14648713769950.376594611857441625153260WETH
2023-10-30 16:00:04FORECAST20243711733.63830.8332.2340.606317614987541.49606383.45606385.328.7760638TT1.638164.63856323.41416813810.196091707078670.251795490370231625154280WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:04FORECAST20243711736.60832.03634.3229.14244539067541.153543934.263543935.149.40354393TT4.608169.60856329.301451340813.01062053595350.366807922982391625153260WETH
2023-10-30 08:00:04FORECAST20243711734.53830.84832.6934.82435656183761.098425794.148425794.838.97842579TT2.538162.53856326.33926219421.57437696095180.284579831250241625154280WETH
2023-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20243711735.22230.34432.78310.1957793981311.271654234.451654234.919.36165423TT3.222166.22256330.019117789333.36480212214580.310784549178381625153260WETH
2023-10-30 00:00:04FORECAST20243711732.77428.70630.745.83334751608920.960630442.880630444.137.01063044TT0.774152.77456327.034337045031.90770493767750.222303216811931615154270WETL
2023-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243711734.2530.27232.2616.77917477725890.952756423.422756424.417.83275642TT2.25155.2556327.684284021192.22142903314060.273870658476891625154280WETH
2023-10-29 16:00:05FORECAST20243711734.77230.1132.4415.78331678536150.618110571.988110574.786.76811057TT2.772158.77256326.999913775961.89114409015230.293425525719411625154280WETH
2023-10-29 12:00:05FORECAST20243711732.97230.41631.6945.13803829678120.637795622.467795625.197.65779562TT0.972152.97256326.555542476111.67785488326840.228882748141771615154270WETL
2023-10-29 08:00:05FORECAST20243711734.10630.63232.3694.27736776772430.488189242.228189245.077.29818924TT2.106155.10656325.961706647771.39425809752760.26859173089071625154280WETH
2023-10-29 04:00:06FORECAST20243711733.04429.31831.1815.84824246998860.141732361.671732364.376.04173236TT1.044155.04456327.044584561351.91263602901150.231302084261511615154270WETL
2023-10-29 00:00:04FORECAST20243711736.51830.8333.67410.418541086450.409449043.199449044.27.39944904TT4.518169.51856330.170645854763.43989643937740.363066340107741625153260WETH
2023-10-28 20:00:04FORECAST20243711735.1528.99432.0724.90340863886980.370078943.100078944.047.14007894TT3.15164.1556326.393784018761.6004421002310.307977268174221625154280WETH
2023-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243711739.23630.14634.6916.24297871921590.165354421.995354424.866.85535442TT7.236175.23656327.316016250792.04342692391220.480204939625151625154280WETH
2023-10-28 12:00:05FORECAST20243711740.51429.64235.0786.5248290869580.881890242.711890244.667.37189024TT8.514175.51456327.50965798462.13694454267760.536539195646651635154290WETH
2023-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20243711739.61428.54434.0798.09227499276920.881890242.621890244.737.35189024TT7.614163.61456328.584026343112.65899229939970.49687664560941625153260WETH
2023-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243711739.32629.73234.5292.00596989930940.27559071.51559074.185.6955907TF7.326161.32656324.388264791260.650713094860480.48417234628881625154280WETM
2023-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243711731.87428.92230.3982.40472773225660.204724523.074724522.95.97472452TT-0.126148.87456324.665149511870.780731288728420.193788037560971615154270WETL
2023-10-27 20:00:04FORECAST20243711731.96428.92230.44300.192913493.532913492.856.38291349TT-0.036000000000001151.96456322.9911214547700.196535214060291615155287.5WETL
2023-10-27 16:00:05FORECAST20243711739.14631.60435.37500.059055151.469055153.484.94905515TF7.146179.14656322.9911214547700.476239492926461625145280WETM
2023-10-27 12:00:04FORECAST20243711734.26833.42233.8450.223094484086960.035433092.555433092.44.95543309TF2.268166.26856323.146857188250.0720922813887360.274534109005061625154280WETM
2023-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243711734.26833.42233.8455.35371573905220.035433092.395433092.344.73543309TF2.268169.26856326.704149878861.74908114922010.274534109005061625154280WETM
2023-10-27 04:00:07FORECAST20243711743.98843.57443.781003.472.966.43TT11.988178.98856322.9911214547700.6829548214152416351552112.5WETH