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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 8, 2023

[ Saturday, October 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, October 9, 2023 ]

DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/09/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.891
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-09 04:00:05OBSERVATION202488864.1800454.5300659.355050007.57.5TT32.18004324.1800486352.61036597531 00.8911948793474716 54215227.5WETH
2023-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST202488856.62447.15651.890007.57.5TT24.624316.62485351.6764921294700.724420190137031644215225WETH
2023-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST202488856.22846.81451.5210007.57.5TT24.228316.22885351.6764921294700.713167881170321644215225WETH
2023-10-08 08:00:01FORECAST202488858.62248.25453.4380007.57.5TT26.622318.62285351.6764921294700.777672258199241644215225WETH
2023-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST202488857.45246.81452.1330007.57.5TT25.452317.45285351.6764921294700.747223854625581644215225WETH
2023-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST202488860.1746.56253.3660007.57.5TT28.17313.1786352.6103659753100.814553224165261644215225WETH
2023-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST202488859.55847.62453.5910007.57.5TT27.558312.55886352.6103659753100.800448940949451644215225WETH
2023-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST202488859.30647.78653.5460007.57.5TT27.306312.30686352.6103659753100.794458862825591644215225WETH
2023-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST202488859.91850.32455.1210007.57.5TT27.918312.91886352.6103659753100.808821993150321644215225WETH
2023-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202488859.01849.02854.0230007.57.5TT27.018311.01886352.6103659753100.787484227826931644215225WETH
2023-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST202488860.02648.93854.4820007.57.5TT28.026313.02686352.6103659753100.811291381539821644215225WETH
2023-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST202488860.40450.05455.2290007.57.5TT28.404311.40486352.6103659753100.819778711264241644215225WETH
2023-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202488859.21648.48853.8520007.57.5TT27.216308.21686352.6103659753100.792293994509851644215225WETH
2023-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202488859.68448.77654.230007.57.5TT27.684309.68486352.6103659753100.803404246496621644215225WETH
2023-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST20248885948.88453.9420007.57.5TT2730886352.6103659753100.787043779765581644215225WETH
2023-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202488858.47848.93853.7080007.57.5TT26.478306.47886352.6103659753100.774041304420371644215225WETH
2023-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202488859.50449.85654.680007.57.5TT27.504309.50486352.6103659753100.799174256684981644215225WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST202488859.88249.80254.8420007.57.5TT27.882306.88286352.6103659753100.807994490576881644215225WETH
2023-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202488860.22450.48655.3550007.57.5TT28.224306.22486352.6103659753100.815767358282271644215225WETH
2023-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202488860.6250.07255.3460007.57.5TT28.62307.6286352.6103659753100.824519539278881644215225WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202488859.30649.13654.2210007.57.5TT27.306304.30686352.6103659753100.794458862825591644215225WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202488858.78448.34453.5640007.57.5TT26.784303.78486352.6103659753100.781717078348771644215225WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST202488858.94648.45253.6990007.57.5TT26.946301.94686352.6103659753100.785719249919491644215225WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST202488859.4549.26254.3560007.57.5TT27.45312.4586352.6103659753100.797894708601191644215225WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202488858.80249.26254.0320007.57.5TT26.802308.80286352.6103659753100.782163875565881644215225WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202488857.70448.54253.1230007.57.5TT25.704304.70486352.6103659753100.753961790010051644215225WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202488857.99248.25453.1230007.57.5TT25.992306.99286352.6103659753100.761542913421621644215225WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST202488857.9247.42652.6730007.57.5TT25.92305.9286352.6103659753100.759659688145871644215225WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:06FORECAST202488858.1948.18253.1860007.57.5TT26.19308.1986352.6103659753100.766679942076691644215225WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST202488858.80247.8453.3210007.267.26TT26.802311.80286352.6103659753100.782163875565881644215225WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202488858.65848.07453.3660007.267.26TT26.658315.65886352.6103659753100.778574777509031644215225WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST202488858.85647.353.0780007.267.26TT26.856316.85686352.6103659753100.78350110393111644215225WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST202488855.72445.96850.8460007.267.26TT23.724308.72486352.6103659753100.698539933321651634215222.5WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202488856.0344.8750.450007.267.26TT24.03310.0386352.6103659753100.707461326858221644215225WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:07FORECAST202488854.75245.37450.0630007.287.28TT22.752304.75286352.6103659753100.669425018881821634215222.5WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202488856.2147.35451.7820006.526.52TF24.21302.2186352.6103659753100.712651287624321644215225WETMH
2023-10-02 20:00:04FORECAST202488857.14647.3952.2680006.586.58TF25.146303.14686352.6103659753100.738913485962891644215225WETMH
2023-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST202488856.24646.81451.530006.596.59TF24.246306.24686352.6103659753100.713684034626411644215225WETMH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202488856.24646.81451.530006.596.59TF24.246306.24686352.6103659753100.713684034626411644215225WETMH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202488856.24646.81451.530006.596.59TF24.246306.24686352.6103659753100.713684034626411644215225WETMH
2023-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST202488853.31244.49248.9020006.586.58TF21.312298.31286352.6103659753100.624388114475061634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST202488853.83444.92449.3790006.816.81TT21.834302.83486352.6103659753100.640949162949681634215222.5WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202488853.1544.07848.6140006.856.85TT21.15304.1586352.6103659753100.619199876233421634215222.5WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202488854.01445.51849.7660006.686.68TF22.014301.01486352.6103659753100.646600826596971634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202488852.12444.22248.1730006.516.51TF20.124298.12486352.6103659753100.585878370569221634215222.5WETMH
2023-10-01 16:00:04FORECAST202488856.22847.9352.0790006.286.28TF24.228308.22886352.6103659753100.713167881170321644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202488859.43248.61454.0230006.216.21TF27.432310.43286352.6103659753100.797467113090381644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202488860.2647.58853.9240006.156.15TF28.26311.2686352.6103659753100.816574032489261644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202488860.83648.36254.5990006.096.09TF28.836309.83686352.6103659753100.829180737225341644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST202488861.50247.8454.6710006.076.07TF29.502308.50286352.6103659753100.843049909181191644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202488860.0848.34454.2120006.126.12TF28.08301.0886352.6103659753100.812518685421931644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202488863.12250.97257.0470006.176.17TF31.122312.12286352.6103659753100.873618496227551654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST202488863.17650.84657.0110006.126.12TF31.176317.17686352.6103659753100.874560729852321654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202488861.89848.255.0490006.226.22TF29.898309.89886352.6103659753100.850935951571661654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST202488862.31250.0956.2010006.086.08TF30.312321.31286352.6103659753100.858893402828351654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202488861.01649.47855.2470005.975.97TF29.016319.01686352.6103659753100.833004111683141644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202488860.47652.95256.71400066TF28.476310.47686352.6103659753100.821367821901111644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202488860.90849.49655.2020006.096.09TF28.908299.90886352.6103659753100.830716742289491644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:05FORECAST202488861.03446.23853.6360006.216.21TF29.034293.03486352.6103659753100.833383397902481644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:04FORECAST202488862.94245.42854.1850006.156.15TF30.942296.94286352.6103659753100.870442257458521654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:08FORECAST202488868.28846.5857.4340006.046.04TF36.288311.28886352.6103659753100.942916221337431654215155WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:04FORECAST202488851.27849.40650.3420005.715.71TF19.278298.27886352.6103659753100.557918067272091634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202488852.03448.90250.4680005.845.84TF20.034297.03486352.6103659753100.582921892000371634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202488855.38251.27853.330006.036.03TF23.382312.38286352.6103659753100.688426786943651634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:04FORECAST202488853.56452.68253.1230006.26.2TF21.564301.56486352.6103659753100.632413890579181634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-28 08:00:05FORECAST202488850.79246.41848.6050006.226.22TF18.792290.79286352.6103659753100.54171486742281634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-28 04:00:09FORECAST202488850.39648.18249.2890006.56.5TF18.396277.39686352.6103659753100.528459551804741634215222.5WETMH