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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 5, 2023

[ Wednesday, October 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, October 6, 2023 ]

DAY 5 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.948
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 251

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 110.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION202458568.6100249.4999659.05499000.287.517.79TT36.61002250.6100289355.39078927845 00.9475855060871416 542251110WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202458563.6846.63455.157000.287.517.79TT31.68245.6888354.4675011412700.878376284578111654225255WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:01FORECAST202458563.08647.6655.373000.287.517.79TT31.086245.08688354.4675011412700.866963093637251654225255WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202458563.3246.36454.842000.287.517.79TT31.32245.3288354.4675011412700.871543989078171654225255WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202458562.56446.7654.662000.287.517.79TT30.564244.56488354.4675011412700.856343937868441654225255WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202458564.02246.1355.076000.287.517.79TT32.022253.02289355.3907892784500.884627255096671654225255WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202458563.53645.84254.689000.287.517.79TT31.536251.53689355.3907892784500.875674560525111654225255WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST202458562.52847.04854.788000.287.517.79TT30.528250.52889355.3907892784500.855591122850691654225255WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202458562.97846.32854.653000.287.517.79TT30.978250.97889355.3907892784500.864811465489311654225255WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202458562.65445.53654.095000.287.517.79TT30.654250.65489355.3907892784500.858214403400651654225255WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST202458563.48246.29254.887000.287.517.79TT31.482252.48289355.3907892784500.874650705808561654225255WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202458562.56446.05854.311000.047.517.55TT30.564256.56489355.3907892784500.856343937868441654215227.5WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202458562.8746.23854.554000.047.517.55TT30.87259.8789355.3907892784500.862636168990291654215227.5WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST202458563.10447.33655.22000.047.517.55TT31.104260.10489355.3907892784500.867319400485091654215227.5WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202458561.57444.22252.898000.047.517.55TT29.574256.57489355.3907892784500.834675176052741644215225WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202458561.89845.17653.537000.047.517.55TT29.898257.89889355.3907892784500.841987755324551644215225WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:06FORECAST202458561.2545.3253.285000.067.517.57TT29.25257.2589355.3907892784500.827147682540821644215225WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202458560.45845.30252.88000.096.726.81TT28.458254.45889355.3907892784500.807846792528141644215225WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202458559.97245.71652.844000.056.826.87TT27.972252.97289355.3907892784500.795376768128051644215225WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST202458560.72846.99453.861000.066.826.88TT28.728255.72889355.3907892784500.814569583566131644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202458560.72846.99453.861000.066.826.88TT28.728255.72889355.3907892784500.814569583566131644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202458560.72846.99453.861000.066.826.88TT28.728255.72889355.3907892784500.814569583566131644215225WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202458559.75644.04251.899000.056.826.87TT27.756253.75689355.3907892784500.789683739692861644215225WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202458559.95446.88653.42000.067.047.1TT27.954255.95489355.3907892784500.794905873028711644215225WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202458560.85446.2253.537000.017.137.14TT28.854257.85489355.3907892784500.817656406814311644215225WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202458561.41247.8454.626000.016.966.97TT29.412253.41289355.3907892784500.830938267681781644215225WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202458561.46647.44454.4550006.86.8TT29.466255.46689355.3907892784500.832189871255421644215225WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202458562.16847.33654.7520006.576.57TF30.168258.16889355.3907892784500.847917264968711644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202458561.9748.39855.1840006.56.5TF29.97256.9789355.3907892784500.843583562220531644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202458561.89848.12855.0130006.446.44TF29.898256.89889355.3907892784500.841987755324551644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202458561.86247.354.5810006.386.38TF29.862254.86289355.3907892784500.841185868241771644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202458560.45846.81453.6360006.366.36TF28.458256.45889355.3907892784500.807846792528141644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202458559.34246.6753.0060006.416.41TF27.342251.34289355.3907892784500.778516315164991644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202458560.4442.8951.6650006.466.46TF28.44257.4489355.3907892784500.807393378220771644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202458561.82645.84253.8340006.416.41TF29.826260.82689355.3907892784500.840381325384881644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202458560.8945.10452.9970006.516.51TF28.89257.8989355.3907892784500.818532438720341644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202458561.01648.57854.7970006.376.37TF29.016264.01689355.3907892784500.821577803276991644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202458558.06446.05852.0610006.266.26TF26.064262.06489355.3907892784500.741989385162921644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202458556.87646.88651.8810006.296.29TF24.876253.87689355.3907892784500.705432430141851644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202458556.87644.61850.747000.016.376.38TF24.876246.87689355.3907892784500.705432430141851644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:04FORECAST202458556.8445.75251.296000.016.496.5TF24.84247.8489355.3907892784500.704288371525841644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202458556.67845.57251.1250006.446.44TF24.678249.67889355.3907892784500.69911504771251644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST202458557.6546.25651.953000.046.296.33TF25.65255.6589355.3907892784500.729521068404111644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:04FORECAST202458558.6441.19849.91900.070866180.100866185.96.00086618TF26.64256.6489355.3907892784500.758827912634711644225250WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202458559.05440.35249.70300.086614220.136614225.996.12661422TF27.054253.05489355.3907892784500.770552113589661644225250WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202458559.57644.54652.061000.3266.32TF27.576258.57689355.3907892784500.784869415038821644225250WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202458555.56244.11449.838000.476.026.49TT23.562252.56289355.3907892784500.662425989912181634225245WETH
2023-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202458554.84241.03647.939000.5166.51TT22.842247.84289355.3907892784500.637879167583381634235267.5WETH
2023-09-28 04:00:08FORECAST202458542.6232.32437.47200.500000270.800000275.996.79000027TT10.62243.6289355.3907892784500.219870384515761614235252.5WETH
2023-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202458544.63634.28639.46100.51181130.55181135.966.5118113TT12.636243.63689355.3907892784500.2786130873181624235260WETH
2023-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202458544.70835.92440.31600.484252230.524252235.816.33425223TF12.708237.70889355.3907892784500.280843944746121624235260WETMH
2023-09-27 16:00:06FORECAST202458542.36833.0837.724000.095.885.97TF10.368232.36889355.3907892784500.213061944877521614225235WETM
2023-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202458537.07630.30833.69200.031496080.731496085.656.38149608TT5.076236.07689355.3907892784500.0996470075247851614235252.5WETH
2023-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202458533.94428.34631.14500.035433090.785433095.376.15543309TF1.944214.94489355.3907892784500.0579004268544771614235252.5WETL
2023-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST202458537.97630.30834.14200.358267911.698267915.236.92826791TT5.976219.97689355.3907892784500.114959738855471614255287.5WETH
2023-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202458541.61234.62838.1200.204724521.264724525.146.40472452TT9.612235.61289355.3907892784500.193387699899731614245270WETH
2023-09-26 20:00:05FORECAST202458541.01835.00638.01200.185039471.335039475.276.60503947TT9.018228.01889355.3907892784500.178733639929711614245270WETH
2023-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202458540.08229.7534.91600.405512031.225512035.26.42551203TT8.082226.08289355.3907892784500.157101053077881614245270WETH
2023-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST202458540.80229.15634.97900.897638281.987638285.057.03763828TT8.802228.80289355.3907892784500.173582544841731614255287.5WETH
2023-09-26 08:00:05FORECAST202458543.21430.72236.96800.811024061.891024064.946.83102406TT11.214242.21489355.3907892784500.236402546161451614255287.5WETH
2023-09-26 04:00:06FORECAST202458541.23433.11637.17500.610236551.680236555.166.84023655TT9.234233.23489355.3907892784500.183979700963191614255287.5WETH
2023-09-26 00:00:04FORECAST202458546.16635.9641.063000.014.954.96TF14.166242.16689355.3907892784500.327770529903771624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 20:00:03FORECAST202458546.29235.88841.09000.015.175.18TF14.292234.29289355.3907892784500.331971573003571624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 16:00:04FORECAST202458545.44638.89442.1700.188976480.568976484.685.24897648TF13.446252.44689355.3907892784500.304193526474731624235260WETMH
2023-09-25 12:00:04FORECAST202458540.85639.52440.19000.515.195.7TF8.856248.85689355.3907892784500.174861399067661614235252.5WETMH
2023-09-25 08:00:04FORECAST202458540.85639.52440.19000.485.335.81TF8.856244.85689355.3907892784500.174861399067661614225235WETMH
2023-09-25 04:00:07FORECAST202458533.85433.27833.56600.137795351.017795355.356.36779535TT1.854224.85489355.3907892784500.0569437151163851614245270WETH