MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 23, 2023

[ Sunday, January 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 24, 2023 ]

DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2023 07:00:19 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.291
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -2

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.63 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 102 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-24 07:00:19OBSERVATION2023115-16928.9500818.3700423.66006101.8912004166701.636.458.08TT-3.04992-2.0499223357.32400119973 36.4081714199270.2907232621270616 21151210WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:13OBSERVATION2023115-16928.9500818.3700423.66006101.8912004166701.636.458.08TT-3.04992-2.0499223357.32400119973 36.4081714199270.2907232621270616 21151210WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2023115-16929.71420.35425.03410401.636.458.08TT-2.286-1.28623358.6091657087137.2953532337060.321349596174281621151210WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:20FORECAST2023115-16929.73219.6724.701103.7711179166701.636.458.08TT-2.268-1.26823358.4700110260437.1988337837720.322087218907761621151210WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:11FORECAST2023115-16930.48820.91225.7103.7711179166701.636.458.08TT-1.512-0.51223358.4700110260437.1988337837720.353668996939421621151210WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2023115-16929.7520.9325.349600.966.457.41TT-2.25-1.2523353.6970377538533.954915624370.32282554258555162113126WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2023115-16930.07420.98425.5299600.966.457.41TT-1.926-0.92623353.6970377538533.954915624370.33623238862771162113126WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2023115-16929.78620.67825.2329600.966.457.41TT-2.214-1.21423353.6970377538533.954915624370.32430428293447162113126WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:05FORECAST2023115-16930.05619.97625.01696.42172284701300.966.457.41TT-1.944-0.94423353.9584820623734.1292866567670.33548187616439162113126WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:09FORECAST2023115-16930.12820.40825.26896.30223392054200.966.457.41TT-1.872-0.87223353.8844341184434.0798615553120.33848783269206162113126WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:19FORECAST2023115-16929.6620.10224.88196.44183399296400.996.457.44TT-2.34-1.3423353.9709428405234.1376069077580.31914095809338162113126WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:06FORECAST2023115-16930.0220.08425.05296.38413352742301.026.457.47TT-1.98-7.9823353.9351901774434.1137366301170.33398282020481162114128WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:05FORECAST2023115-16930.18220.76825.47596.43747431400601.026.457.47TT-1.818-7.81823353.9682416565334.1358032127250.34074908169491162114128WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:05FORECAST2023115-16929.10220.35424.72896.68115872201101.086.457.53TT-2.898-8.89823354.1191785498434.2366525078850.29670447651688162114128WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:05FORECAST2023115-16929.76819.18424.476100.83601651201.066.457.51TT-2.232-9.23223356.6783524816635.9660242403130.32356456474982162114128WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:17FORECAST2023115-16929.5719.05824.314100.7714575784201.016.457.46TT-2.43-9.4323356.6387937870435.9390110789280.31547414049293162114128WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:15FORECAST2023115-16927.89619.07623.486101.0216747294901.096.457.54TT-4.104-10.10423356.7920790084236.0437333516480.25085493613291162114128WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:05FORECAST2023115-16926.85218.66222.757104.6307852895101.156.457.6TT-5.148-19.14823358.9922492305837.5616409498430.21441590356741161114126WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:07FORECAST2023115-16926.97818.98622.982104.3409754121301.096.457.54TT-5.022-20.02223358.8163204084937.4392448652130.21864367456624161114126WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2023115-16926.3318.4122.37104.6366225611701.146.457.59TT-5.67-21.6723358.995791410737.5641071268920.19741382355983161114126WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:08FORECAST2023115-16927.1418.91423.027103.2589559187400.886.457.33TT-4.86-19.8623358.158335910836.9830558197430.22414912574509161113124.5WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:22FORECAST2023115-16927.35618.98623.171103.4393759862700.966.457.41TT-4.644-18.64423358.2681764270837.0590366053580.23161051930606161113124.5WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:17FORECAST2023115-16927.37419.45423.414102.5690531004300.786.457.23TT-4.626-18.62623357.7378555410536.6928331010240.23223847885421161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:09FORECAST2023115-16926.9619.79623.37898.10829855966700.626.276.89TT-5.04-21.0423355.0012685022334.8285704392770.21803679101521161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:08FORECAST2023115-16927.1419.86823.50499.04906485078400.816.277.08TT-4.86-20.8623355.5809933710735.2199648721180.22414912574509161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:08FORECAST2023115-16927.44619.423.42398.93587918682500.776.277.04TT-4.554-21.55423355.5113186804635.1728248745190.23475975123239161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:06FORECAST2023115-16927.48219.65223.56798.5910276006170.035433090.705433096.276.97543309TT-4.518-20.51823355.2989118400935.0292848236960.23602603035309161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:18FORECAST2023115-16928.05819.423.72997.81130981511800.566.276.83TT-3.942-21.94223354.817968373734.705210232570.25678880971815162113126WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:17FORECAST2023115-16927.03220.76823.997.22787532844500.466.276.73TT-4.968-22.96823354.457472327434.4631469286850.2204701376476161112123WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:07FORECAST2023115-16928.41822.62225.5293.2814406651160.051181130.451181136.446.89118113TT-3.582-21.58223352.004946597232.8355285398340.27023172242476162112124WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:07FORECAST2023115-16928.38222.6425.51192.9098577920550.051181130.401181136.446.84118113TT-3.618-20.61823351.7727562497832.6831567582860.26887178020917162112124WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:05FORECAST2023115-16929.40822.89226.1593.0282240082020.110236280.420236286.446.86023628TT-2.592-19.59223351.8467433294632.7316776550090.3089195952801162112124WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:08FORECAST2023115-16928.05821.68624.87295.4424230066880.062992160.332992166.446.77299216TT-3.942-20.94223353.3509413712133.7246700161620.25678880971815162112124WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:30FORECAST2023115-16928.09421.5624.82795.0620670726620.062992160.342992166.416.75299216TT-3.906-19.90623353.114567367233.5678006873950.25811728665646162112124WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:12FORECAST2023115-16929.37222.92826.1594.81183767757200.316.436.74TT-2.628-17.62823352.9589365370533.4646853977990.30747115129676162112124WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:13FORECAST2023115-16928.83222.58625.70994.91614049609800.366.356.71TT-3.168-18.16823353.0238199718733.5076584949190.28611362130109162112124WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:08FORECAST2023115-16928.72422.7325.72794.98591215450300.366.376.73TT-3.276-18.27623353.0672130863433.5364112868540.28192809829185162112124WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:08FORECAST2023115-16928.59821.6525.12494.66496750916900.376.286.65TT-3.402-18.40223352.8675441716333.4041946040470.27708254191274162112124WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:07FORECAST2023115-16932.05423.03627.54595.41018728397500.336.226.55TF0.054000000000002-14.94623353.3309171837133.7113689817160.42215230739459162112124WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:28FORECAST2023115-16932.01823.0927.55495.47582872928700.336.256.58TT0.018000000000001-14.98223353.3716906094633.7384550104070.42054231366394162112124WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:30FORECAST2023115-16930.90222.15426.52895.50844670550700.416.26.61TT-1.098-16.09823353.3919488574533.7519161136070.37141801304267162112124WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:07FORECAST2023115-16931.24422.83827.04192.26762827502500.426.256.67TT-0.756-18.75623351.3709303375832.4201623870370.38629122556481162112124WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:08FORECAST2023115-16933.31422.15427.73492.30886924608500.416.256.66TT1.314-17.68623351.3967534145432.4370369644420.47913142432259162112124WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:10FORECAST2023115-16930.79420.325.54794.0585119299200.726.276.99TT-1.206-20.20623352.4898060110933.1546666238690.36675962637985162113126WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:10FORECAST2023115-16926.63620.08423.3694.62867576859900.746.226.96TT-5.364-30.36423352.8449557885633.3892509179020.20727976492095161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:25FORECAST2023115-16926.63620.08423.3695.60510792169700.766.337.09TT-5.364-29.36423353.4519729804133.7918140219280.20727976492095161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:24FORECAST2023115-16926.38418.73422.55996.28829083357400.816.447.25TT-5.616-29.61623353.8757920465634.074095183540.199133977059161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:08FORECAST2023115-16929.51621.0225.26898.1467452071780.716535821.486535826.477.95653582TT-2.484-22.48423355.0249874945334.8445469898080.3132827030202162114128WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:07FORECAST2023115-16929.55220.67825.11599.2063628954920.771653961.751653966.458.20165396TT-2.448-18.44823355.6777894500635.2854998540490.314742935484281621151210WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:07FORECAST2023115-16929.8423.77426.80798.3140515771080.23622061.67622066.468.1362206TT-2.16-16.1623355.128177290534.9140899386220.326527588826091621151210WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023115-16932.91826.22229.57101.846918583290.244094621.704094626.628.32409462TT0.918-18.08223357.2969406863436.3895924281410.461121545990431621151210WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:18FORECAST2023115-16933.04426.25829.651101.105034291290.240157611.700157616.518.21015761TT1.044-17.95623356.8431241768836.0786363065120.466845090091761621151210WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:18FORECAST2023115-16930.9218.62624.77394.89882288319400.456.827.27TT-1.08-23.0823353.013048430933.50052275850.37219626576587162112124WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:07FORECAST2023115-16930.25420.67825.466104.232455629770.464567180.944567187.28.14456718TT-1.746-24.74623358.7504102406137.3934362175650.34377298689269162113126WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:08FORECAST2023115-16930.75820.8425.799104.441698528820.464567180.944567187.318.25456718TT-1.242-24.24223358.8774789683837.4817734671970.36521114067771162113126WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:11FORECAST2023115-16932.48624.63828.562104.410746462280.62992160.88992167.38.1899216TT0.486-23.51423358.858686697637.4687033525680.4415662141312162113126WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:12FORECAST2023115-16933.85424.3529.102101.6290578485400.337.337.66TT1.854-25.14623357.1637622249336.298216652560.50375197440307163112125WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:26FORECAST2023115-16933.69224.2628.976100.3730311594200.337.147.47TT1.692-25.30823356.3945131118635.7723975696220.49636304060287162112124WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:16FORECAST2023115-16933.1723.25228.211100.171828726900.297.137.42TT1.17-22.8323356.2710591804935.6883235205780.47257549820757162112124WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:09FORECAST2023115-16924.824.824.8121.7079982623402.188.110.28TT-7.2-21.223369.1336043804244.9265120805020.15246291542487161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:10FORECAST2023115-16924.824.824.8121.4145529139702.188.0210.2TT-7.2-22.223368.963029515244.797481270370.15246291542487161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:09FORECAST2023115-16924.3524.3524.35122.7109715479702.28.2510.45TT-7.65-17.6523369.7156569829245.368167464870.14064583993978161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:07FORECAST2023115-16925.8825.8825.88124.4506595703902.488.1910.67TT-6.12-16.1223370.7217352166946.1365644647960.18343067453143161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:23FORECAST2023115-16925.8825.8825.88124.0585729381602.488.210.68TT-6.12-16.1223370.4953756753445.9631275864690.18343067453143161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:14FORECAST2023115-16921.52421.52421.524113.1617919391601.027.888.9TT-10.476-25.47623364.1133983551341.2037246269250.080602988412916161114126WETL