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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 14, 2023

[ Friday, January 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 15, 2023 ]

DAY 106 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/15/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.487
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 13

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 83 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-15 07:00:14OBSERVATION2023106-17833.0600229.9600631.5100482.6848740.319999999999942.54999999999994.517.0599999999999TT1.0600213.0600214336.50828340916 27.8241450136420.4868195375129516 21151210WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:13OBSERVATION2023106-17833.0600229.9600631.5100482.6848740.319999999999942.54999999999994.517.0599999999999TT1.0600213.0600214336.50828340916 27.8241450136420.4868195375129516 21151210WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2023106-1783226.04229.02186.2177530890770.370078942.600078944.517.11007894TT01214338.8433926107629.214315959980.445622268076231621151210WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:20FORECAST2023106-17832.0926.56429.32785.4970808796440.267716682.497716684.517.00771668TT0.09000000000000312.0914338.3687532879528.9295406670040.449103644798791621151210WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:12FORECAST2023106-17832.77427.2330.00285.3717142939110.232283592.462283594.516.97228359TT0.77412.77414338.2860973009528.8800640483790.475671098033121621151210WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:02FORECAST2023106-17832.5427.10429.82289.7551947527290.228346582.918346584.517.42834658TT0.549.5414341.1606167697630.620937600130.466564035891351621151210WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2023106-17832.50426.9629.73289.6293185869820.188976482.878976484.517.38897648TT0.5049.50414341.0785175281930.5706351107090.465164381795111621151210WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2023106-17832.6327.60830.11990.0668446879470.31496083.00496084.517.5149608TT0.639.6314341.3637688953330.7455575551880.470064942952891621151210WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:04FORECAST2023106-17832.41427.75230.08390.8211778417420.208661532.898661534.517.40866153TT0.4149.41414341.8548233254931.0476577053020.461667169103731621151210WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:18FORECAST2023106-17832.21627.51829.86790.3148979405660.204724522.924724524.517.43472452TT0.2169.21614341.5253499896930.8448271284350.453984102579471621151210WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:11FORECAST2023106-17832.28827.57229.9390.5390656049830.232283592.882283594.517.39228359TT0.2889.28814341.6712845417430.9345988464640.456776106526331621151210WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2023106-17832.34228.05830.292.4511455009470.232283591.512283594.516.02228359TT0.34210.34214342.9126891772831.702670921250.458871518274081621151210WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:06FORECAST2023106-17832.07227.93230.00292.6712583250310.255905651.575905654.516.08590565TT0.07200000000000310.07214343.0552093148331.7913579221620.448407047155131621151210WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2023106-17832.12628.27430.291.5350219387540.267716681.467716684.515.97771668TF0.12610.12614342.318654595731.3341455584620.45049730867796162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:52:59FORECAST2023106-17832.32428.16630.24591.5260707975350.267716681.377716684.515.88771668TF0.32410.32414342.3128436580631.3305495635530.45817291779941162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:39FORECAST2023106-17832.32428.16630.24592.0093443573980.267716681.377716684.515.88771668TF0.32410.32414342.6263882062431.52482933840.45817291779941162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:24FORECAST2023106-17832.32428.16630.24592.0260825696260.267716681.377716684.515.88771668TF0.32410.32414342.6372409482231.531563026930.45817291779941162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:21FORECAST2023106-17832.32428.16630.24592.0260825696260.267716681.377716684.515.88771668TF0.32410.32414342.6372409482231.531563026930.45817291779941162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:25FORECAST2023106-17832.32428.16630.24592.0260825696260.267716681.377716684.515.88771668TF0.32410.32414342.6372409482231.531563026930.45817291779941162114128WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:08FORECAST2023106-1783528.3731.68589.4928221528290.38551.51554.516.0255TT31614340.9894618411430.5161092645380.562264541795081631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:22FORECAST2023106-17835.8229.9732.89589.5950981935740.29511.76514.516.2751TT3.8213.8214341.0561936863130.5569631628510.593640945807611631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:12FORECAST2023106-17836.6330.3233.47589.5841642710470.39582.10584.516.6158TT4.6314.6314341.0490604791530.552595058450.624056033090421631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:06FORECAST2023106-17835.4829.4232.4591.3068635474290.32322.57324.356.9232TT3.4816.4814342.1704965767131.2425148408860.58069197873691631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:05FORECAST2023106-17838.4527.6233.03591.3781095368850.27722.38724.356.7372TT6.4528.4514342.2167704314331.2711215338430.689409663313971631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:07FORECAST2023106-17836.8928.9332.9191.5077900937850.27212.51214.356.8621TT4.8917.8914342.3009757072931.323205833920.633667609548451631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:08FORECAST2023106-17836.8628.6532.75591.5031191701240.46742.79744.357.1474TT4.8618.8614342.2979432251331.3213294906180.632562718605781631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:23FORECAST2023106-17834.9128.5331.7291.6753942590470.51612.84614.367.2061TT2.9118.9114342.4097647803131.3905501843830.558793051400541631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:27FORECAST2023106-17834.8628.1931.52591.8334703666440.55213.10214.447.5421TT2.8615.8614342.5123269197631.4540956243960.556862474494751631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023106-17835.3329.0332.1890.3481449116080.58312.80314.387.1831TT3.3316.3314341.546999224230.8581377800330.574950411940241631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023106-17836.9530.133.52590.0971102040420.46293.05294.417.4629TT4.9520.9514341.3834892089730.7576658491010.63587406365031631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023106-17839.1829.8634.5296.1086155785940.51823.20824.457.6582TT7.1822.1814345.270545494933.1834741275810.714162792293871641151215WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2023106-17839.1128.833.95596.5972483095190.35782.99784.477.4678TT7.1124.1114345.5838962720833.3824534399660.711830280932051641151215WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:25FORECAST2023106-17838.9429.4134.17596.6640873483030.30982.78984.387.1698TT6.9420.9414345.6267286333733.4096922865240.706128575817651641151215WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:20FORECAST2023106-17838.7229.3134.01597.1400312645370.41942.67944.367.0394TT6.7215.7214345.9315169063433.6037983676710.698673495753751631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023106-17839.6730.1234.89594.1736696994480.34992.54994.286.8299TT7.6724.6714344.0258755940732.3981791762590.730234162120541641151215WETL
2023-01-09 19:00:06FORECAST2023106-17837.8831.5634.7293.1693054365920.18412.29414.216.5041TT5.8825.8814343.3773942517231.992233325060.669459500925651631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 15:00:11FORECAST2023106-17838.3431.6534.99592.5861371677170.26872.17874.356.5287TT6.3418.3414343.0001039418131.7570546720970.68560037107261631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 11:00:10FORECAST2023106-17836.8931.2134.0595.4258610854520.33992.27994.466.7399TT4.8920.8914344.8320562978932.9058959020930.633667609548451631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 07:00:23FORECAST2023106-17836.1630.7933.47596.9097276637510.37012.35014.687.0301TT4.1616.1614345.7840794949233.5098409743140.60648831639061631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 03:00:24FORECAST2023106-17836.1630.8333.49596.9875964263320.37012.35014.727.0701TT4.1617.1614345.8339397289933.5416025769640.60648831639061631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023106-17838.1130.6134.3692.3020174560980.23392.17394.776.9439TT6.1123.1114342.8160854542331.6426163038280.677571746778751631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 19:00:09FORECAST2023106-17838.1230.6134.36594.6221415607620.23392.50394.977.4739TT6.1216.1214344.3149036630332.5798135558830.677922579433121631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 15:00:10FORECAST2023106-17838.231.0734.63591.6027444807230.26782.79784.827.6178TT6.224.214342.362614705431.3613551146110.68072351775581631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 11:00:07FORECAST2023106-17836.4130.5133.4696.303749044320.28692.70694.657.3569TT4.4113.4114345.3957274807533.2629034602870.615862356405731631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 07:00:27FORECAST2023106-17836.5630.2133.38595.9011413089890.28692.90694.567.4669TT4.5615.5614345.1373785661833.0990685128890.621454815498471631151212.5WETL
2023-01-08 03:00:14FORECAST2023106-17835.529.8332.66595.4461911081260.19882.68884.687.3688TT3.517.514344.8451239481532.9141536030610.581456252640161631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 23:00:09FORECAST2023106-17836.0631.5633.8190.2940952735870.24941.45944.35.7594TF4.0620.0614341.5118031095730.836499287030.602721015113491631141210WETL
2023-01-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023106-17836.4931.1333.8189.0751212544860.20391.75394.225.9739TT4.4927.4914340.7167453190730.349385402730.618848085143771631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 15:00:07FORECAST2023106-17836.5331.1333.8390.3667072719430.19091.91094.226.1309TT4.5328.5314341.5590855718830.8655699019460.620338313943261631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 11:00:11FORECAST2023106-17834.930.832.8589.5368877978390.06162.22164.266.4816TT2.924.914341.0182153905530.5337096884430.55840704624881631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 07:00:17FORECAST2023106-17834.8432.2933.56591.7710186073450.06162.22164.666.8816TT2.8426.8414342.4718122063831.4289870504820.556089862992351631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 03:00:31FORECAST2023106-17836.1735.4735.8294.1632481718720.06422.23424.877.1042TT4.1725.1714344.0191552844132.3939610949230.606864505316151631151212.5WETL