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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 13, 2023

[ Thursday, January 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 14, 2023 ]

DAY 105 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/14/2023 07:00:18 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.769
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 85 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 28.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -179

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-14 07:00:18OBSERVATION2023105-17939.8600632.0100835.9350784.6258150.509999999999992.545.127.66TT7.8600618.8600613336.80348665179 28.502269552750.7692443071246116 41151215WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:11OBSERVATION2023105-17939.8600632.0100835.9350784.6258150.509999999999992.545.127.66TT7.8600618.8600613336.80348665179 28.502269552750.7692443071246116 41151215WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:01FORECAST2023105-17936.84229.85833.3590.1289092226540.972441473.002441475.128.12244147TT4.84215.84213340.4276688237830.6823744602980.659970323269041631151212.5WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:16FORECAST2023105-17936.84229.82233.33289.6357142773921.000000543.030000545.128.15000054TT4.84215.84213340.1049272215430.4855480807630.659970323269041631151212.5WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:10FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.45233.75589.768515513660.925197352.955197355.128.07519735TT5.05816.05813340.1918707381330.5385192259770.668424586102541631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:01FORECAST2023105-17936.80630.75833.78291.6346486626290.779527981.589527985.126.70952798TT4.80616.80613341.4105112061231.2850322441010.658553286087321631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2023105-17937.20230.2933.74691.7285376695090.822835091.632835095.126.75283509TT5.20217.20213341.4716710333731.3226970394540.674013827103661631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2023105-17937.09430.70433.89990.5463680843790.696850771.506850775.126.62685077TT5.09417.09413340.7005337626530.8491959366180.669825475761931631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:52:57FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.75833.90890.5308842463850.606299541.416299545.126.53629954TT5.05817.05813340.6904181791830.8430048120320.668424586102541631141210WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:38FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.75833.90890.7317855352820.606299541.416299545.126.53629954TT5.05817.05813340.8216359875330.9233555822040.668424586102541631141210WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:24FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.75833.90890.7386609000450.606299541.416299545.126.53629954TT5.05817.05813340.8261254174430.9261062201290.668424586102541631141210WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:21FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.75833.90890.7386609000450.606299541.416299545.126.53629954TT5.05817.05813340.8261254174430.9261062201290.668424586102541631141210WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:21FORECAST2023105-17937.05830.75833.90890.7386609000450.606299541.416299545.126.53629954TT5.05817.05813340.8261254174430.9261062201290.668424586102541631141210WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:07FORECAST2023105-17940.430.6335.51589.4298266666670.63441.44445.126.5644TT8.420.413339.9700768628730.40346504570.786498718181891641141212WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:21FORECAST2023105-17939.331.5235.4189.6731344166670.59191.78195.126.9019TT7.317.313340.1294287450430.5004719829180.750553878684541641151215WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:12FORECAST2023105-17939.1431.335.2289.6945090833330.57822.01825.127.1382TT7.1417.1413340.1434231556530.508997357870.745070499440291641151215WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2023105-17938.931.2835.0991.347280.54912.39915.127.5191TT6.919.913341.2232269784331.1698136573020.736728845080771641151215WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2023105-17942.8630.3336.59591.3565186666670.45662.25665.127.3766TT10.8628.8613341.2292501396731.1735163599980.855093149581131651151217.5WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:06FORECAST2023105-17938.8130.5134.6691.5211746666670.50872.38875.127.5087TT6.8119.8113341.3365741378831.2395242217950.733565216964071641151215WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:07FORECAST2023105-17938.5731.3334.9591.3375692377720.50332.48335.127.6033TT6.5720.5713341.2168958814831.1659218526730.725036025906191641151215WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:22FORECAST2023105-17939.2230.9335.07591.4736017149790.44982.48985.127.6098TT7.2223.2213341.3055703469131.2204498050170.747820037854411641151215WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:26FORECAST2023105-17939.3630.9735.16591.5542996010430.48322.79325.127.9132TT7.3620.3613341.3581597922731.2528072328820.752593891355021641151215WETL
2023-01-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023105-17938.2731.5234.89590.4171448856670.62332.45335.077.5233TT6.2720.2713340.6161001168730.7975352746580.714189033935451641151215WETL
2023-01-10 19:00:06FORECAST2023105-17939.1431.5935.36590.2982483472520.70732.84735.077.9173TT7.1423.1413340.5383893639330.7500200545570.745070499440291641151215WETL
2023-01-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023105-17939.0332.0335.5395.822385480220.7282.9885.078.058TT7.0322.0313344.1242931790832.9748106741140.741264461295491641151215WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2023105-17938.8631.8935.37596.2831338984040.63522.95525.078.0252TT6.8623.8613344.4211134196433.161944180820.735325156915361641151215WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:23FORECAST2023105-17937.7531.8334.7996.3691327438280.49252.71255.077.7825TT5.7520.7513344.4764765573633.1968992964820.6949203772871631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:19FORECAST2023105-17937.832.1434.9796.535783897530.46592.45595.087.5359TT5.815.813344.5837264959333.2646601556170.69679798655491631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 23:00:06FORECAST2023105-17939.1332.3635.74593.9503401596810.4292.4294.977.399TT7.1324.1313342.9147174487432.216954350070.744725709006311641151215WETL
2023-01-09 19:00:05FORECAST2023105-17941.2132.9137.0693.3837339170060.41972.26974.977.2397TT9.2127.2113342.54748357231.9883630598280.810924239601181641151215WETL
2023-01-09 15:00:10FORECAST2023105-17938.3233.0235.6792.8404279482930.41572.20574.977.1757TT6.3219.3213342.1948545668531.769516739690.716010904072171641151215WETL
2023-01-09 11:00:09FORECAST2023105-17938.9932.6835.83594.7045595510920.30622.34624.977.3162TT6.9922.9913343.4027295582332.5218042514550.739873201247961641151215WETL
2023-01-09 07:00:22FORECAST2023105-17938.2632.0835.1795.8644544883360.39752.45755.127.5775TT6.2619.2613344.1514090046832.9918870856260.713823994735041641151215WETL
2023-01-09 03:00:23FORECAST2023105-17938.2632.0835.1795.9062317831510.39752.50755.117.6175TT6.2620.2613344.1783339375233.008847069350.713823994735041641151215WETL
2023-01-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023105-17938.5732.9135.7492.2426781396040.49272.47275.167.6327TT6.5723.5713341.8063265309531.5291309642750.725036025906191641151215WETL
2023-01-08 19:00:09FORECAST2023105-17938.5734.136.33594.5551269694090.69732.82735.338.1573TT6.5716.5713343.3061145561132.4613532512270.725036025906191641151215WETL
2023-01-08 15:00:09FORECAST2023105-17941.234.8838.0491.6501698704650.87753.09755.178.2675TT9.225.213341.4206228145231.2912580782310.810633566642941641151215WETL
2023-01-08 11:00:07FORECAST2023105-17939.1134.8736.9996.0076514106050.56972.80975.187.9897TT7.1116.1113344.2436857060633.0500277775690.744035398505281641151215WETL
2023-01-08 07:00:26FORECAST2023105-17939.1734.9237.04595.735742926290.56972.93975.168.0997TT7.1718.1713344.068438083832.9396475374410.746103408787071641151215WETL
2023-01-08 03:00:14FORECAST2023105-17938.6834.6236.6595.286548180920.59812.83815.258.0881TT6.6820.6813343.7786625031332.7574820881770.728961870598881641151215WETL
2023-01-07 23:00:08FORECAST2023105-17938.1632.1635.1689.9001911666590.35031.60034.836.4303TT6.1623.1613340.2780483969630.5910616007040.710161491877451641151215WETL
2023-01-07 19:00:06FORECAST2023105-17938.5231.735.1188.8047468865720.36271.94274.756.6927TT6.5229.5213339.5602355756530.154560773040.723242346550841641151215WETL
2023-01-07 15:00:07FORECAST2023105-17937.831.7234.7690.1359675361940.36272.23274.636.8627TT5.830.813340.4322847763230.6851933688710.69679798655491631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 11:00:10FORECAST2023105-17936.6232.0234.3289.6087101769280.37262.76264.587.3426TT4.6228.6213340.0872443440430.4747793132950.651196678137211631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 07:00:17FORECAST2023105-17936.6932.0734.3891.8474926862870.37263.02264.727.7426TT4.6930.6913341.549138057531.3704319597430.653972147307371631151212.5WETL
2023-01-07 03:00:31FORECAST2023105-17936.9432.3434.6494.2481455052060.35963.12964.837.9596TT4.9427.9413343.1075219080832.3372476487230.663816338643391631151212.5WETL
2023-01-06 23:00:07FORECAST2023105-17937.0132.7534.8895.6097008460940.64143.96144.748.7014TT5.0134.0113343.9871616907732.8885096241520.666553067812081631151212.5WETL
2023-01-06 19:00:10FORECAST2023105-17938.6631.9735.31593.4159310862340.48423.76424.788.5442TT6.6634.6613342.568365653732.001342838230.728250162659461641151215WETL
2023-01-06 15:00:10FORECAST2023105-17943.1733.138.13582.6230999337450.35913.64914.888.5291TT11.1753.1713335.4719319032727.7177309546110.862547461766891651151217.5WETL
2023-01-06 11:00:09FORECAST2023105-17938.631.3534.97583.9510699243580.65112.50114.87.3011TT6.649.613336.3556220644128.237414347380.726109480580381641151215WETL
2023-01-06 07:00:28FORECAST2023105-17941.3335.9738.6583.4654069301950.50672.35674.717.0667TT9.3349.3313336.032786021428.0471132271630.814390894911211641151215WETL
2023-01-06 03:00:28FORECAST2023105-17937.2436.5836.9185.8415179460670.16191.79194.856.6419TT5.2436.2413337.6084792828628.9808243331040.675482338461871631151212.5WETL