MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 27, 2023

[ Saturday, August 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, August 28, 2023 ]

DAY 331 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/28/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 61.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 68.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.930
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 44
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 646

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 238
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 130.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-28 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233314675.6300261.8200668.72504000.2300.23FF43.63002645.63002238460.23272928919 00.9295852261153916 535251130DRYVH
2023-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20233314673.09455.5864.337000.2300.23FF41.094643.094239460.7548722180100.8894610137940316535251130DRYVH
2023-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20233314673.50855.83264.67000.2300.23FF41.508643.508239460.7548722180100.896939493375916535251130DRYVH
2023-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20233314673.50855.92264.715000.2300.23FF41.508643.508239460.7548722180100.896939493375916535251130DRYVH
2023-08-27 04:00:06FORECAST20233314672.75256.17464.463000.2300.23FF40.752642.752239460.7548722180100.8829968235123516535251130DRYVH
2023-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233314673.25655.70664.481000.2300.23FF41.256637.256238460.2327292891900.8924322780577216535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20233314673.54455.29264.418000.2300.23FF41.544637.544238460.2327292891900.8975720513705616535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 16:00:45FORECAST20233314672.21255.11263.662000.2300.23FF40.212636.212238460.2327292891900.8722545077809816535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 12:04:02FORECAST20233314671.63657.09264.364000.2300.23FF39.636635.636238460.2327292891900.8600629912450616535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 08:04:37FORECAST20233314672.89656.33664.616000.2300.23FF40.896637.896238460.2327292891900.8857504119214116535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 04:18:05FORECAST20233314672.73456.31864.526000.2300.23FF40.734636.734238460.2327292891900.8826493562602116535251130DRYVH
2023-08-26 00:04:18FORECAST20233314672.62656.08464.355000.1600.16FF40.626631.626238460.2327292891900.8805492523333716535251130DRYVH
2023-08-25 16:00:03FORECAST20233314673.97657.68665.831000.0400.04FF41.976634.976238460.2327292891900.90494427875391653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233314674.53457.3865.957000.0400.04FF42.534636.534238460.2327292891900.913880230353531653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233314673.68856.364.994000.1300.13FF41.688634.688238460.2327292891900.9000741443161316535251130DRYVH
2023-08-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233314673.38257.41665.399000.0400.04FF41.382634.382238460.2327292891900.894703276334671653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233314672.0556.33664.193000.0300.03FF40.05629.05238460.2327292891900.868902555522411653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233314673.2257.27265.246000.1100.11FF41.22634.22238460.2327292891900.8917770064675716535251130DRYVH
2023-08-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233314673.36458.04665.705000.0400.04FF41.364636.364238460.2327292891900.894380981948521653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233314674.49858.15466.326000.0600.06FF42.498638.498238460.2327292891900.913323319912451653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233314673.1356.40864.769000.0900.09FF41.13630.13238460.2327292891900.890126310203091653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 04:00:07FORECAST20233314672.03256.96664.499000.0800.08FF40.032628.032238460.2327292891900.868526411098541653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233314671.16856.82263.995000.0500.05FF39.168625.168238460.2327292891900.849594244351141653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233314671.74458.164.922000.0900.09FF39.744629.744238460.2327292891900.86240697958151653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233314671.656.85864.229000.0600.06FF39.6629.6238460.2327292891900.85927568341621653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233314671.3356.33663.833000.0400.04FF39.33630.33238460.2327292891900.853275411975981653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233314671.40256.98464.193000.0400.04FF39.402628.402238460.2327292891900.854891972191771653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233314670.73657.34464.04000.2300.23FF38.736626.736238460.2327292891900.8394801670075516435251120DRYVH
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233314672.48257.45264.967000.3700.37FF40.482626.482238460.2327292891900.8777081945208416535251130DRYVH
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233314671.90657.1164.508000.3500.35FF39.906623.906238460.2327292891900.865872603733916535251130DRYVH
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233314671.81655.90463.86000.300.3FF39.816627.816238460.2327292891900.863954709718816535251130DRYVH
2023-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233314671.07855.95863.518000.1200.12FF39.078624.078238460.2327292891900.8475228597659916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233314670.95255.20263.077000.1300.13FF38.952620.952238460.2327292891900.8445913486888616435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20233314672.556.4864.49000.1400.14FF40.5630.5238460.2327292891900.8780658904055716535251130DRYVH
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233314672.4156.3964.4000.200.2FF40.41627.41238460.2327292891900.8762700705431616535251130DRYVH
2023-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20233314671.27654.9563.113000.1400.14FF39.276623.276238460.2327292891900.8520551135251116535251130DRYVH
2023-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233314671.16855.05863.113000.2400.24FF39.168621.168238460.2327292891900.8495942443511416535251130DRYVH
2023-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233314670.7955.79663.293000.1700.17FF38.79627.79238460.2327292891900.8407681163310716435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 08:00:04FORECAST20233314671.54656.78664.166000.1500.15FF39.546634.546238460.2327292891900.8580891114592416535251130DRYVH
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233314668.68455.14861.916000.1900.19FF36.684619.684238460.2327292891900.785562190664916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233314669.90853.65461.781000.2300.23FF37.908616.908238460.2327292891900.818885256911716435251120DRYVH
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233314670.14251.860.971000.1500.15FF38.142619.142238460.2327292891900.8248663494746416435251120DRYVH
2023-08-20 16:22:48FORECAST20233314665.60653.74459.67500000FF33.606612.606238460.2327292891900.687725249717431633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:22:50FORECAST20233314670.62855.41863.023000.200.2FF38.628621.628238460.2327292891900.8368839626018916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-20 08:06:08FORECAST20233314670.95255.23863.095000.190.020.21FF38.952619.952238460.2327292891900.8445913486888616435251120DRYVH
2023-08-20 04:00:10FORECAST20233314668.25253.09660.67400000FF36.252625.252238460.2327292891900.773001196384821643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 00:00:12FORECAST20233314669.1754.17661.67300.051181130.0511811300.05118113FF37.17627.17238460.2327292891900.799199201587271643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 20:00:04FORECAST20233314670.2555.77863.01400.074803190.0748031900.07480319FF38.25635.25238460.2327292891900.827584202886951643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 16:00:05FORECAST20233314672.2355.70663.96800000FF40.23640.23238460.2327292891900.872623247373271653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 12:00:08FORECAST20233314669.96254.4162.1860000.040.04FF37.962641.962238460.2327292891900.820276716711551643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233314668.8154.51861.66400000FF36.81631.81238460.2327292891900.789148371041571643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20233314672.01454.33863.176000.050.070.12FF40.014627.014238460.2327292891900.868149524514171653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 00:00:07FORECAST20233314669.72852.30461.016000.1700.17FF37.728624.728238460.2327292891900.8141986101411516435251120DRYVH
2023-08-18 20:00:10FORECAST20233314669.36851.22460.296000.2400.24FF37.368614.368238460.2327292891900.8046026805826516435251120DRYVH
2023-08-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233314663.82448.61456.219000.1500.15FF31.824605.824238460.2327292891900.623530022141641633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233314661.6147.35454.48200.326771830.506771830.040.54677183FF29.61604.61238460.2327292891900.538948058911471633535282.5DRYVH
2023-08-18 08:00:04FORECAST20233314660.83647.44454.1400.208661530.338661530.010.34866153FF28.836607.836238460.2327292891900.508747655106981633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 04:00:08FORECAST20233314659.3644.99652.17800.27559070.275590700.2755907FF27.36615.36238460.2327292891900.451162467421861623525250DRYMH
2023-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233314654.21250.05452.133000.0300.03FF22.212611.212238460.2327292891900.265242258471191623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233314654.21250.0952.151000.100.1FF22.212611.212238460.2327292891900.265242258471191623525250DRYMH
2023-08-17 16:00:03FORECAST20233314651.47648.25449.865000.1900.19FF19.476601.476238460.2327292891900.185264144548591613525245DRYM
2023-08-17 12:00:05FORECAST20233314652.86246.99449.92800.137795350.2377953500.23779535FF20.862615.862238460.2327292891900.223747324779341613525245DRYM
2023-08-17 08:00:08FORECAST20233314652.86246.99449.92800.137795350.2377953500.23779535FF20.862610.862238460.2327292891900.223747324779341613525245DRYM
2023-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20233314645.66243.55644.609000.1300.13FF13.662597.662238460.2327292891900.0713141289208681613425240DRYM