MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 5, 2023

[ Friday, August 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 6, 2023 ]

DAY 309 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/06/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.366
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 578

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 216
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-06 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233092461.2199450.7700455.9949900.120.120.30.42FF29.21994578.21994216448.22897902679 00.3662844255341616 22425240DRYM
2023-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20233092458.44249.2853.86100.212598540.212598540.30.51259854FF26.442575.442217448.7966496492100.264564051203721622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20233092459.05448.59653.82500.114173290.114173290.30.41417329FF27.054576.054217448.7966496492100.285707845412171622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20233092458.60448.5653.58200.102362260.102362260.30.40236226FF26.604575.604217448.7966496492100.270082698619821622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 04:00:13FORECAST20233092458.7349.02853.87900.141732360.141732360.30.44173236FF26.73575.73217448.7966496492100.274414386064041622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233092458.7348.95653.84300.114173290.124173290.30.42417329FF26.73571.73216448.2289790267900.274414386064041622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233092458.15449.71253.93300.027559070.027559070.30.32755907FF26.154571.154216448.2289790267900.254896610612661622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20233092457.09249.67653.38400.035433090.035433090.30.33543309FF25.092570.092216448.2289790267900.220905997235391612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233092459.34249.89254.61700.03937010.03937010.30.3393701FF27.342572.342216448.2289790267900.295928267284931622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233092460.49450.25255.37300.062992160.062992160.30.36299216FF28.494574.494216448.2289790267900.338386352799751622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 04:00:11FORECAST20233092459.9949.69454.84200.047244120.047244120.30.34724412FF27.99572.99216448.2289790267900.319515554798041622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 00:00:04FORECAST20233092463.75250.0956.9210000.30.3FF31.752575.752216448.2289790267900.468295155231641622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 20:00:03FORECAST20233092463.5951.11657.35300.023622060.033622060.30.33362206FF31.59574.59216448.2289790267900.461629817048481622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233092463.57250.43257.00200.019685050.019685050.30.31968505FF31.572575.572216448.2289790267900.460889854150511622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233092464.29250.7257.50600.007874020.017874020.30.31787402FF32.292576.292216448.2289790267900.490566719892671622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20233092464.34650.84657.59600.007874020.017874020.30.31787402FF32.346576.346216448.2289790267900.492796645415461622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20233092463.57250.43257.00200.019685050.019685050.30.31968505FF31.572577.572216448.2289790267900.460889854150511622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233092463.2350.3656.79500.051181130.051181130.30.35118113FF31.23575.23216448.2289790267900.446859175738621622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233092464.70649.85657.28100.019685050.019685050.30.31968505FF32.706574.706216448.2289790267900.507665204239871632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233092463.57249.83856.7050000.30.3FF31.572571.572216448.2289790267900.460889854150511622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233092466.23651.90859.07200.023622060.023622060.30.32362206FF34.236578.236216448.2289790267900.570489887217211632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233092466.23651.09858.66700.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF34.236576.236216448.2289790267900.570489887217211632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233092464.8551.13457.99200.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF32.85571.85216448.2289790267900.513610803181961632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233092465.8449.04657.44300.059055150.059055150.30.35905515FF33.84570.84216448.2289790267900.554335272889121632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233092465.8449.04657.44300.059055150.059055150.30.35905515FF33.84572.84216448.2289790267900.554335272889121632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233092465.35448.41656.88500.027559070.027559070.30.32755907FF33.354571.354216448.2289790267900.534387940676881632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233092466.36248.90257.63200.03937010.03937010.30.3393701FF34.362572.362216448.2289790267900.575606662851221632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:05FORECAST20233092466.66848.27257.4700.035433090.035433090.30.33543309FF34.668571.668216448.2289790267900.587978553461691632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:13FORECAST20233092466.7450.0958.41500.035433090.035433090.30.33543309FF34.74577.74216448.2289790267900.59087740383591632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233092465.2150.77457.9920000.30.3FF33.21569.21216448.2289790267900.528458687304761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:05FORECAST20233092465.04849.58657.3170000.30.3FF33.048570.048216448.2289790267900.521780794971761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:07FORECAST20233092464.11248.93856.5250000.30.3FF32.112566.112216448.2289790267900.483136155064261622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233092463.89650.93657.4160000.30.3FF31.896563.896216448.2289790267900.474227429406481622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:06FORECAST20233092465.44452.5565900.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF33.444569.444216448.2289790267900.538089935428381632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233092461.80849.6455.7240000.30.3FF29.808558.808216448.2289790267900.38942198936581622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233092459.86446.11252.98800.224409570.244409570.30.54440957FF27.864551.864216448.2289790267900.314867544245961622425240DRYM
2023-07-30 20:00:06FORECAST20233092460.09847.6653.87900.255905650.325905650.30.62590565FF28.098552.098216448.2289790267900.323522276183791622425240DRYM
2023-07-30 16:00:07FORECAST20233092464.14848.81256.4800.204724520.254724520.30.55472452FF32.148566.148216448.2289790267900.484621882213921622425240DRYM
2023-07-30 12:00:04FORECAST20233092465.73249.1957.4610000.30.3FF33.732571.732216448.2289790267900.549912598228971632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233092466.43449.60458.0190000.30.3FF34.434571.434216448.2289790267900.578524882149331632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:15FORECAST20233092467.3748.63258.0010000.30.3FF35.37574.37216448.2289790267900.616014161494491632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233092466.84848.36257.6050000.30.3FF34.848565.848216448.2289790267900.595216330736161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:05FORECAST20233092467.2849.58658.4330000.30.3FF35.28570.28216448.2289790267900.612450250427041632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:07FORECAST20233092467.20847.8457.524000.030.30.33FF35.208566.208216448.2289790267900.609592269492181632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20233092466.84847.5757.209000.020.30.32FF34.848559.848216448.2289790267900.595216330736161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233092466.30847.7557.029000.030.30.33FF34.308561.308216448.2289790267900.573415266347771632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:12FORECAST20233092467.8248.61458.2170000.30.3FF35.82570.82216448.2289790267900.633681430464961632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:06FORECAST20233092469.45851.00860.2330000.30.3FF37.458574.458216448.2289790267900.695399157224351632415145DRYM
2023-07-28 20:00:07FORECAST20233092468.6349.53259.0810000.30.3FF36.63571.63216448.2289790267900.664757928293411632415145DRYM
2023-07-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233092465.26449.157.1820000.30.3FF33.264562.264216448.2289790267900.53068296772571632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:05FORECAST20233092464.59847.37255.9850000.30.3FF32.598565.598216448.2289790267900.503204814867731632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:05FORECAST20233092465.53449.80257.6680000.30.3FF33.534574.534216448.2289790267900.541788633251241632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233092467.147.78657.4430000.30.3FF35.1570.1216448.2289790267900.605294220416021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20233092468.01848.52458.2710000.30.3FF36.018566.018216448.2289790267900.641368677937451632415145DRYM
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233092467.44246.99457.2180000.30.3FF35.442566.442216448.2289790267900.618858261622531632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233092469.81849.31659.5670000.30.3FF37.818571.818216448.2289790267900.708321598603891642415150DRYMH
2023-07-27 12:00:05FORECAST20233092470.05251.0860.5660000.30.3FF38.052570.052216448.2289790267900.716581872773851642415150DRYMH
2023-07-27 08:00:06FORECAST20233092469.40451.00860.2060000.30.3FF37.404566.404216448.2289790267900.693439044289021632415145DRYM
2023-07-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233092467.87450.70259.2880000.30.3FF35.874570.874216448.2289790267900.635783427896951632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233092453.6948.36251.0260000.30.3FF21.69552.69216448.2289790267900.131019317312021612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:04FORECAST20233092453.61849.96451.7910000.30.3FF21.618532.618216448.2289790267900.129438684801451612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:05FORECAST20233092452.08847.8449.9640000.30.3FF20.088552.088216448.2289790267900.0989284541165911612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:06FORECAST20233092456.17450.32453.2490000.30.3FF24.174556.174216448.2289790267900.193734729718421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:07FORECAST20233092456.17450.32453.2490000.30.3FF24.174561.174216448.2289790267900.193734729718421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:14FORECAST20233092452.86251.47652.1690000.30.3FF20.862573.862216448.2289790267900.113635254472791612415217.5DRYL