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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 5, 2023

[ Tuesday, July 4, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 6, 2023 ]

DAY 278 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/06/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.926
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 474

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 185
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-06 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023278-773.4700256.7199465.094980001.281.28FF41.47002474.47002185429.51724492645 00.9263235694810116 51315145DRYM
2023-07-06 00:00:02FORECAST2023278-665.89446.72456.3090001.281.28FF33.894466.894186430.1558852106900.766113734933421641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:02FORECAST2023278-666.7449.3758.0550001.281.28FF34.74467.74186430.1558852106900.790097195891881641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:01FORECAST2023278-666.72249.7358.2260001.281.28FF34.722467.722186430.1558852106900.789602415792691641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:08FORECAST2023278-666.75849.15457.9560001.281.28FF34.758467.758186430.1558852106900.790591292807141641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023278-768.12651.13459.630001.281.28FF36.126464.126185429.5172449264500.82611192888221641315140DRYM
2023-07-04 20:00:01FORECAST2023278-767.83849.92858.8830001.281.28FF35.838462.838185429.5172449264500.818970406594381641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:01FORECAST2023278-767.40650.21658.8110001.281.28FF35.406462.406185429.5172449264500.807919871216281641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:02FORECAST2023278-768.93651.18860.0620001.281.28FF36.936463.936185429.5172449264500.845223755782071641315140DRYM
2023-07-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023278-769.20651.69260.4490001.281.28FF37.206465.206185429.5172449264500.851274440761231651315145DRYM
2023-07-04 04:00:20FORECAST2023278-768.84651.56660.2060001.281.28FF36.846463.846185429.5172449264500.843171313552141641315140DRYM
2023-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023278-768.41451.58459.9990001.281.28FF36.414459.414185429.5172449264500.83307209766161641315140DRYM
2023-07-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023278-770.03451.40460.7190001.281.28FF38.034463.034185429.5172449264500.868835724663771651315145DRYM
2023-07-03 16:00:05FORECAST2023278-770.4351.51260.9710001.281.28FF38.43464.43185429.5172449264500.876708540618891651315145DRYM
2023-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023278-769.58453.40261.4930001.281.28FF37.584463.584185429.5172449264500.859477089225821651315145DRYM
2023-07-03 09:27:25FORECAST2023278-769.96254.01461.9880001.281.28FF37.962463.962185429.5172449264500.867367910891421651315145DRYM
2023-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023278-769.45852.37660.91753.0814768001.281.28FF37.458462.458185450.7558467034423.9267860192530.85677759894662165131119DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:15FORECAST2023278-769.13452.30460.71953.3257894001.281.28FF37.134461.134185450.8471292711224.0417790671060.84967655879713165131119DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023278-769.00852.86260.9350001.281.28FF37.008461.008185429.5172449264500.84685290922981641315140DRYM
2023-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023278-769.9852.08861.0340001.281.28FF37.98461.98185429.5172449264500.867735917672541651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 16:00:05FORECAST2023278-769.0852.91660.9980001.281.28FF37.08459.08185429.5172449264500.848470687607741641315140DRYM
2023-07-02 12:00:09FORECAST2023278-770.46652.2561.3580001.281.28FF38.466461.466185429.5172449264500.877407523429671651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023278-770.50252.3461.4210001.281.28FF38.502459.502185429.5172449264500.878103729844651651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 04:00:10FORECAST2023278-771.18652.98862.0870001.281.28FF39.186462.186185429.5172449264500.890808249167481651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023278-770.57452.28661.430001.281.28FF38.574460.574185429.5172449264500.879487824969561651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023278-770.91653.16862.0420001.281.28FF38.916458.916185429.5172449264500.885911519049271651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 16:00:07FORECAST2023278-770.21452.80861.5110001.281.28FF38.214458.214185429.5172449264500.872456186226851651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023278-769.65653.22261.4390001.281.28FF37.656457.656185429.5172449264500.861004092375171651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023278-770.91652.71861.8170001.281.28FF38.916460.916185429.5172449264500.885911519049271651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:19FORECAST2023278-769.58452.30460.9440001.281.28FF37.584460.584185429.5172449264500.859477089225821651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023278-769.9852.5261.250001.281.28FF37.98454.98185429.5172449264500.867735917672541651315145DRYM
2023-06-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023278-768.88252.2560.5660001.281.28FF36.882457.882185429.5172449264500.843994424058431641315140DRYM
2023-06-30 16:00:08FORECAST2023278-768.07251.76459.9180001.281.28FF36.072452.072185429.5172449264500.82478668794441641315140DRYM
2023-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023278-767.53251.24259.3870001.281.28FF35.532455.532185429.5172449264500.811184706892781641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023278-769.09851.00860.0530001.281.28FF37.098460.098185429.5172449264500.848873355279591641315140DRYM
2023-06-30 04:00:11FORECAST2023278-767.51451.22459.3690001.281.28FF35.514455.514185429.5172449264500.810720402221611641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023278-768.5452.48460.5120001.281.28FF36.54453.54185429.5172449264500.836060008406931641315140DRYM
2023-06-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023278-768.5452.21460.3770001.281.28FF36.54456.54185429.5172449264500.836060008406931641315140DRYM
2023-06-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023278-768.59452.23260.4130001.281.28FF36.594457.594185429.5172449264500.83732987910331641315140DRYM
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023278-768.43251.22459.8280001.281.28FF36.432453.432185429.5172449264500.833501073954361641315140DRYM
2023-06-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023278-768.5451.860.170001.281.28FF36.54456.54185429.5172449264500.836060008406931641315140DRYM
2023-06-29 04:00:18FORECAST2023278-767.53251.06259.2970001.281.28FF35.532449.532185429.5172449264500.811184706892781641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023278-770.39453.65462.0240001.311.31FF38.394456.394185429.5172449264500.876006778608621651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 20:00:06FORECAST2023278-772.91452.84462.8790001.291.29FF40.914458.914185429.5172449264500.918617060819251651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 16:00:07FORECAST2023278-773.29254.12263.7070001.291.29FF41.292459.292185429.5172449264500.923919184161561651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023278-774.24653.47463.860001.291.29FF42.246463.246185429.5172449264500.936132798253161651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 08:00:08FORECAST2023278-772.30254.57263.4370001.321.32FF40.302461.302185429.5172449264500.909450881831631651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 04:00:16FORECAST2023278-767.51453.45660.4850001.291.29FF35.514447.514185429.5172449264500.810720402221611641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:07FORECAST2023278-763.19449.49656.3450001.331.33FF31.194456.194185429.5172449264500.680377960970241631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023278-761.93447.13854.5360001.311.31FF29.934446.934185429.5172449264500.636331351140941631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:09FORECAST2023278-763.12249.15456.1380001.321.32FF31.122445.122185429.5172449264500.677921253978191631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:09FORECAST2023278-764.09447.80455.9490001.311.31FF32.094453.094185429.5172449264500.710393603468311641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023278-764.09447.8455.9670001.321.32FF32.094452.094185429.5172449264500.710393603468311641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:08FORECAST2023278-764.29248.7456.5166.3477696001.291.29FF32.292452.292185432.210367061282.74357182883640.716815372109461641313212DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:23FORECAST2023278-761.37645.9553.6637.0854910666667001.281.28FF29.376443.376185432.520547669883.06462047666470.616190020290791631313210.5DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:09FORECAST2023278-762.52846.95854.7430001.391.39FF30.528447.528185429.5172449264500.657364642813311631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023278-762.8747.55255.2110001.381.38FF30.87449.87185429.5172449264500.6692620111811631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023278-763.33842.13452.7360001.391.39FF31.338449.338185429.5172449264500.685267634776121631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023278-762.97842.13452.5560001.421.42FF30.978450.978185429.5172449264500.672984552006671631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:24FORECAST2023278-765.31845.35655.3370001.341.34FF33.318461.318185429.5172449264500.748953990786251641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:07FORECAST2023278-761.50249.11855.310001.371.37FF29.502467.502185429.5172449264500.620767795020311631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:06FORECAST2023278-761.50249.20855.3550001.361.36FF29.502472.502185429.5172449264500.620767795020311631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:05FORECAST2023278-760.36847.5753.9690001.31.3FF28.368463.368185429.5172449264500.579033953069621631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:06FORECAST2023278-736.55430.45233.5030001.221.22FF4.554435.554185429.5172449264500.0190598042792911611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:06FORECAST2023278-736.55430.45233.5030001.221.22FF4.554425.554185429.5172449264500.0190598042792911611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:11FORECAST2023278-751.69249.67650.6840001.231.23FF19.692463.692185429.5172449264500.265181370916511621315215DRYL