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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 29, 2023

[ Wednesday, June 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, June 30, 2023 ]

DAY 272 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/30/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.805
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 389

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 1 in
SWE DAY: 179
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -13

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-30 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023272-1367.9149.6500858.780040.9160086666666700.021.461.48FF35.91388.91179426.03435634894 0.390251162713380.8046162606701216 41214214DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:01FORECAST2023272-1262.92445.35654.14000.021.461.48FF30.924383.924180426.287386085400.667634276963761631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:01FORECAST2023272-1263.62644.65454.141.248440800.021.461.48FF31.626384.626180426.830714572110.532872878764970.689063076597471631214212DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:02FORECAST2023272-1265.24644.654.9231.191762400.021.461.48FF33.246386.246180426.806085128480.508651444347320.736050924352731641214214DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:15FORECAST2023272-1264.00445.4154.7071.673163285714300.021.461.48FF32.004385.004180427.0151637720.714466094466570.7003475530021641214214DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2023272-1364.27445.93255.1030.40792800.051.461.51FF32.274381.274179425.812416278710.173700807347740.708292581330181641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:02FORECAST2023272-1364.74246.09455.4185.97223200.031.461.49FF32.742381.742179428.227480606052.55747386295480.721826630088371641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:03FORECAST2023272-1363.24845.62654.4376.061874400.031.461.49FF31.248380.248179428.266109231882.59609536394030.67759811234666163121329DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2023272-1364.74247.19255.9673.319171200.031.461.49FF32.742381.742179427.080234595971.41755241476020.721826630088371641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023272-1364.29247.3955.8413.229627200.061.461.52FF32.292382.292179427.041378629321.37918445194670.708818744634781641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:12FORECAST2023272-1363.12247.4855.3013.673395764705900.031.461.49FF31.122379.122179427.233857211031.5693990416180.673737918016461631214212DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:04FORECAST2023272-1364.0448.05656.0480.841754400.071.461.53FF32.04381.04179426.00193842830.358589006080550.701412532630811641214214DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2023272-1363.26647.5755.4185.203059200.051.461.51FF31.266380.266179427.895667563662.22636648975730.678148022485691631214212DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023272-1363.66247.46255.5625.17078400.061.461.52FF31.662380.662179427.881730205862.21248400444080.690145704648551631214212DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:07FORECAST2023272-1363.6846.65255.1663.12947600.051.461.51FF31.68380.68179426.997909392871.33627970949520.690686402225121631214212DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023272-1363.53647.62455.582.946845600.061.461.52FF31.536380.536179426.918612732571.25806323548910.686349359448621631214212DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023272-1363.44647.24655.34624.962786400.031.461.49FF31.446380.446179436.2175519099210.8892055722580.68362552930952163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:19FORECAST2023272-1363.1446.454.7724.67370386666700.021.461.48FF31.14381.14179436.0987898014610.7601723961730.67429052682544163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:08FORECAST2023272-1362.70846.27454.4911.965758400.071.521.59FF30.708377.708179426.492002372810.838380236197170.660924768008461631214212DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023272-1363.96848.70456.3365.617008800.11.481.58FF31.968377.968179428.074321618452.40449723158490.699280857491061641224228DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023272-1362.6946.7654.7254.003347200.111.481.59FF30.69375.69179427.376828600651.71093783012330.66036329613831631224224DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023272-1363.17646.95855.0673.680988800.121.51.62FF31.176379.176179427.237148699371.57265515930630.675394596076741631224224DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:19FORECAST2023272-1362.3347.8455.0853.913672418181800.091.451.54FF30.33379.33179427.337983441251.67246087903550.649060593818771631214212DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:05FORECAST2023272-1362.47448.0255.2473.235650400.091.481.57FF30.474373.474179427.043992563071.38176506535430.653598189880351631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2023272-1363.42846.38254.9057.572748800.091.471.56FF31.428377.428179428.915852278143.24807200564030.68307956049151163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2023272-1364.09447.08455.5897.437153600.051.451.5FF32.094375.094179428.857642118753.18948015697090.703006769018631641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023272-1362.47447.37254.9235.4595104001.421.42FF30.474373.474179428.0063699552.33670522803560.653598189880351631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:04FORECAST2023272-1361.68245.9553.8165.9038848001.421.42FF29.682369.682179428.198022579432.52803179689670.62838581695065163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:09FORECAST2023272-1363.37447.13855.2565.561912609523800.011.421.43FF31.374373.374179428.050553815682.38077977278110.681439266243621631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:08FORECAST2023272-1362.65446.18454.4194.730622400.051.431.48FF30.654368.654179427.69154170462.02324718747830.65923928585951631214212DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023272-1362.13247.37254.7528.464725600.051.421.47FF30.132368.132179429.298272950313.63389208107830.64278666418355163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023272-1363.30247.53455.4188.067583200.011.431.44FF31.302370.302179429.128111548193.46202674337390.67924667293373163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023272-1364.68847.15655.9226.058452001.421.42FF32.688375.688179428.26463461572.59462073211670.720280737900111641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:06FORECAST2023272-1362.20444.94253.5736.8856024001.411.41FF30.204364.204179428.620657948232.95131143105790.64507266650187163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023272-1362.94245.21254.0776.588592304761900.041.451.49FF30.942361.942179428.492904474622.82316505306660.66819102394048163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:06FORECAST2023272-1362.83445.82454.3294.177536001.481.48FF30.834358.834179427.452258108481.78569719652950.664845015113231631214212DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023272-1362.38444.67253.5288.4834416001.471.47FF30.384358.384179429.30628785663.64199482154430.65076472516203163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023272-1362.6945.01453.8528.1886352001.531.53FF30.69361.69179429.179996214833.51439842414060.6603632961383163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:09FORECAST2023272-1362.79844.88853.8436.763311200.021.491.51FF30.798359.798179428.568068291322.89853921623710.66372675106448163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023272-1364.41845.39254.9056.26904800.021.671.69FF32.418363.418179428.35535065562.68538025431680.712489433183561641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:23FORECAST2023272-1363.39246.11254.7526.3057848545454001.441.44FF31.392363.392179428.371170401792.70121643844350.68198642796521163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023272-1358.67644.22251.4494.049045600.151.351.5FF26.676362.676179427.396620747631.73054840669310.528499098247411631224224DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:06FORECAST2023272-1358.5544.49251.5217.882532800.141.381.52FF26.55363.55179429.048765386313.38199096595710.52422621948311631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:06FORECAST2023272-1360.18844.02452.1068.261274400.061.421.48FF28.188365.188179429.211122785953.54583086086680.57937927040477163121329DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023272-1364.5846.92255.7515.578890400.121.431.55FF32.58371.58179428.057878175262.38808798719630.717176519105971641224228DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:08FORECAST2023272-1365.42647.356.3635.34804400.091.391.48FF33.426370.426179427.95826206952.28873961571120.741039776888711641214214DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023272-1362.38444.49253.4386.859418126315800.121.361.48FF30.384356.384179428.609399134022.94001108152920.650764725162031631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:08FORECAST2023272-1363.26645.4154.3384.82973200.151.291.44FF31.266371.266179427.734384314042.06584244342180.678148022485691631224224DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:08FORECAST2023272-1365.58846.23855.9136.06933600.131.31.43FF33.588379.588179428.269324181622.59931042695120.745487734594971641223221DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:07FORECAST2023272-1363.84246.83255.3376.2644632001.251.25FF31.842378.842179428.35337623022.68340396198980.69553401586637163121329DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023272-1370.32248.86659.5945.5302024001.281.28FF38.322381.322179428.036872922462.36713054192430.856299948716891651214132DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:08FORECAST2023272-1367.15447.06657.116.1604544001.291.29FF35.154376.154179428.308579087312.63857547059620.786343425669671641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:12FORECAST2023272-1358.80246.4952.6467.16511741666670.027559070.767559071.292.05755907FF26.802360.802179428.740798235313.07197816067140.532768699122371631233227DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:09FORECAST2023272-1362.70846.07654.3925.43524640.082677211.232677211.112.34267721FF30.708375.708179427.995898992782.32626316921530.660924768008461631244248DRYM
2023-06-20 20:00:07FORECAST2023272-1363.2345.71654.4735.67849120.074803191.134803191.162.29480319FF31.23375.23179428.100840425072.43096685506640.677047813617151631244248DRYM
2023-06-20 16:00:07FORECAST2023272-1362.52842.33252.437.704744001.181.18FF30.528357.528179428.972497726713.30512327802490.65529416661918163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:08FORECAST2023272-1359.34244.81652.0796.458825634446100.021.131.15FF27.342363.342179428.437057448762.76720024939670.55101828409772163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023272-1359.91842.65651.2875.874530144355100.021.161.18FF27.918372.918179428.185368988212.5153878574930.57036530111902163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:20FORECAST2023272-1356.96639.75848.3627.1306467020680.055118140.055118141.131.18511814FF24.966351.966179428.725986748953.05709354350220.47043421264342162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:08FORECAST2023272-1347.24640.87444.067.5919617559777000.770.77FF15.246348.246179428.92409865683.25637535321970.18344053949305161121326DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:07FORECAST2023272-1347.2140.0143.616.793022175122000.760.76FF15.21355.21179428.580846591852.9113591947310.18262690566412161121326DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:12FORECAST2023272-1347.6641.55844.6097.797242767942100.250.91.15FF15.66353.66179429.012182052683.34511213386940.192958704377291611223212DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023272-1347.85842.49445.1768.213446696029900.050.890.94FF15.858361.858179429.190628816873.52513435222290.1976153449688161121326DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:08FORECAST2023272-1355.86850.07252.976.989119355622400.070.870.94FF23.868375.868179428.665161233922.9959919754610.43340268120638162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:23FORECAST2023272-1347.96645.66246.8148.754223963564200.070.961.03FF15.966353.966179429.422204586813.75925815388040.20018365459632161121326DRYL