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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 8, 2023

[ Friday, April 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 9, 2023 ]

DAY 190 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/09/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.166
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -39

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 97
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-04-09 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023190-9531.2824.9000828.09004166.690939583330.0900000000000321.384.045.42TF-0.72-38.7297443.85500955849 73.9866085820740.1663895532505216 1114126WETL
2023-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2023190-9531.67622.15426.915170.548836514390.177165451.467165454.045.50716545TF-0.324-38.32497445.3571336655575.9551409800420.17627469604387161114126WETL
2023-04-08 12:00:04FORECAST2023190-9531.29821.77626.537169.519060429390.15748041.44748044.045.4874804TF-0.702-38.70297444.9576155081875.428796911850.16683098085695161114126WETL
2023-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2023190-9530.03821.54225.79169.761965220490.228346581.518346584.045.55834658TF-1.962-39.96297445.0519485168975.5528934054370.13774982213484161115127.5WETL
2023-04-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023190-9530.7421.66826.204170.166679015290.244094621.534094624.045.57409462TF-1.26-39.2697445.2089914610775.7597355446760.15349709021137161115127.5WETL
2023-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2023190-9531.42421.93826.681178.061952252540.299212761.719212764.045.75921276TF-0.576-42.57697448.2405569377879.8145886471070.16994204926103161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2023190-9531.02822.24426.636174.132613964130.330708841.730708844.045.77070884TF-0.972-42.97297446.7393992794577.7918993572960.16028866123685161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023190-9530.75821.61426.186174.200599915160.342519871.742519874.045.78251987TF-1.242-43.24297446.7655000906677.8268181371890.15391591092984161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 12:00:02FORECAST2023190-9531.4622.20826.834176.20044754750.358267911.758267914.045.79826791TF-0.54-42.5497447.5312583347678.8552080100820.17083769679855161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2023190-9532.30622.53227.419175.941992302520.248031631.718031634.045.75803163TF0.306-41.69497447.4325124076278.7221676539170.19274783007095161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023190-9532.95422.92827.941175.549553832640.220472561.690472564.045.73047256TF0.954-40.04697447.2824525849878.5202349884620.21063645732126161115127.5WETL
2023-04-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023190-9532.50422.58627.545181.378485885660.19685051.70685054.045.7468505TF0.504-42.49697449.4959920877481.5289024565450.19811296320019161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023190-9531.78422.24427.014174.811144976260.216535552.116535554.046.15653555TT-0.216-44.21697446.9996954835478.1405285715160.17903370769328161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2023190-9532.43221.18226.807174.298597866880.03937011.99937014.046.0393701TT0.432-42.56897446.8031150224377.8771564709630.1961516788585161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 12:00:05FORECAST2023190-9534.1621.03827.599178.126448108150.086614221.916614224.045.95661422TT2.16-42.8497448.2650720608279.8478650971380.24639943380415161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2023190-9535.4221.23628.328177.303555554020.023622061.733622064.045.77362206TF3.42-40.5897447.9519859679979.4234798296080.286979819909811621151210WETL
2023-04-06 04:00:14FORECAST2023190-9532.28819.83226.06178.602548766850.015748041.885748044.045.92574804TT0.288-47.71297448.4459155630680.0935835036460.19226452279235161115127.5WETL
2023-04-06 00:00:05FORECAST2023190-9532.79220.06626.429183.344077972830.07874021.84874024.055.8987402TT0.792-44.20897450.2350680247482.5479334180330.20607550147973161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023190-9532.7220.0326.375183.476425314080.173228441.843228444.085.92322844TT0.72-46.2897450.2846990575382.6166269567010.20406731573324161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023190-9531.69420.31826.006184.187440948690.145669372.015669374.086.09566937TT-0.306-47.30697450.5510487127782.9858446791540.17673265780652161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023190-9532.5422.51427.527183.712394351060.122047311.872047314.085.95204731TT0.54-46.4697450.3731474552482.7391292704260.19909802043705161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 08:00:03FORECAST2023190-9534.05223.79228.922183.498744855340.287401731.837401734.065.89740173TT2.052-43.94897450.2930673730682.6282126800160.24306980762618161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 04:00:14FORECAST2023190-9533.22423.928.562185.436195848220.555118412.265118414.066.32511841TT1.224-47.77697451.0176752110183.6350019514370.21836801006995161115127.5WETL
2023-04-05 00:00:03FORECAST2023190-9542.92634.86238.894192.955486382670.224409571.514409574.045.55440957TF10.926-26.07497453.7963609109187.5624975382480.569141722936291631151212.5WETL
2023-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023190-9532.12625.4328.778190.522262540721.055118682.625118684.076.69511868TT0.126-44.87497452.9029865720786.2881017131610.18794811528744161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 16:00:05FORECAST2023190-9533.1726.1529.66190.790298472481.110236822.750236824.066.81023682TT1.17-41.8397453.0016685767286.4283235562850.2168087771818161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023190-9532.3625.10628.733191.707680623711.208662072.908662074.066.96866207TT0.36-43.6497453.3389104551386.9085510598340.19420219022886161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023190-9532.86426.54629.705190.792778518941.185040012.755040014.076.82504001TT0.864-38.13697453.0025813345186.4296211690660.2080953355246161115127.5WETL
2023-04-04 04:00:13FORECAST2023190-9538.04826.22232.135187.588803599730.188976481.928976484.086.00897648TT6.048-34.95297451.818580968684.7561070480280.380415991755271621151210WETL
2023-04-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023190-9533.81824.76429.291190.289591211820.547244392.287244394.036.31724439TT1.818-41.18297452.8172701605886.166413232510.23593973595419161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023190-9533.81824.76429.291188.722900988620.547244392.287244394.056.33724439TT1.818-41.18297452.2387786776985.3478142516050.23593973595419161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 16:00:05FORECAST2023190-9533.96223.0928.526190.069424293570.763779942.513779944.046.55377994TT1.962-41.03897452.7361137298886.0512924935460.2403137862192161115127.5WETL
2023-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023190-9538.04826.22232.135187.552088183060.188976481.928976484.086.00897648TT6.048-34.95297451.8049571953384.7369631734440.380415991755271621151210WETL
2023-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023190-9537.4927.08632.288188.187695581340.287401732.087401734.056.13740173TT5.49-36.5197452.0406289935785.0684842794410.359747397027931621151210WETL
2023-04-03 04:00:11FORECAST2023190-9536.35626.90631.631189.255688897170.535433362.335433364.016.34543336TT4.356-38.64497452.4357659631885.6260425690810.319037055955771621151210WETL
2023-04-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023190-9536.53630.14633.341190.866712065820.795276023.485276023.977.45527602TT4.536-36.46497453.0297892411786.4683063403360.325370579828571621151210WETL
2023-04-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023190-9535.27628.54431.91186.021399608330.767716953.447716954.097.53771695TT3.276-42.72497451.235841493283.9395227880090.282186409498321621151210WETL
2023-04-02 16:00:04FORECAST2023190-9535.0627.93231.496185.652623100240.622047583.352047584.087.43204758TT3.06-43.9497451.0983979396583.7476008538110.275069299553241621151210WETL
2023-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023190-9538.49831.92835.213185.942260902470.811024063.241024064.27.44102406TT6.498-36.50297451.2063572282383.8983301965840.397339728998181621151210WETL
2023-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2023190-9540.04633.20636.626185.512219951570.724409843.164409844.267.42440984TT8.046-32.95497451.0460356291983.6745513699230.456852897188941621151210WETL
2023-04-02 04:00:15FORECAST2023190-9537.9431.02834.484185.411636929270.637795622.937795624.217.14779562TT5.94-37.0697451.0085124566183.6222265636160.376386776481741621151210WETL
2023-04-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023190-9538.98430.07434.529178.416838868950.417323061.907323064.226.12732306TT6.984-38.01697448.3754009723779.9977216680880.415835996176081621151210WETL
2023-04-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023190-9539.79429.73234.763169.722135700620.421260071.911260074.156.06126007TT7.794-35.20697445.0364845588575.5325426240230.447061487271341621151210WETL
2023-04-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023190-9543.44833.49438.471167.387547702330.440945121.750945124.15.85094512TF11.448-26.55297444.1273334018574.3413852057110.589166969543981631151212.5WETL
2023-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2023190-9542.92634.86238.894168.955486382670.224409571.514409574.045.55440957TF10.926-26.07497444.7385250633175.1410138151810.569141722936291631151212.5WETL
2023-04-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023190-9541.1833.33237.256169.399095852010.153543391.343543394.255.59354339TF9.18-31.8297444.9110053292175.3675220373770.501153154362781631141210WETL
2023-04-01 04:00:10FORECAST2023190-9543.59233.06238.327166.3918211890400.534.154.68TF11.592-23.40897443.7379277539673.8343619296320.59465284489106163113127.5WETL
2023-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023190-9541.37833.29637.337176.225522578290.102362260.582362264.835.41236226TF9.378-28.62297447.5408351018878.8681175409530.50890213020888163113127.5WETL
2023-03-31 20:00:05FORECAST2023190-9540.85631.76636.311167.074657723090.090551230.570551234.985.55055123TF8.856-26.14497444.005075453474.181996008690.48847341138919162113126WETL
2023-03-31 16:00:05FORECAST2023190-9541.70232.0936.896167.434908391980.090551230.490551234.925.41055123TF9.702-27.29897444.1458305492974.3655164507020.52157369231941163113127.5WETL
2023-03-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023190-9540.5528.63434.592172.03544030640.090551230.640551234.795.43055123TF8.55-28.4597445.9320453976776.7161157767220.4765085697752162113126WETL
2023-03-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023190-9542.09829.96636.032170.646588073780.090551230.520551234.745.26055123TF10.098-23.90297445.3950036737776.0051377220380.53703030959035163113127.5WETL
2023-03-31 04:00:15FORECAST2023190-9542.04430.12836.086168.453651219920.03937010.07937014.884.9593701TF10.044-19.95697444.5431715781974.884920377230.53492535443016163111122.5WETL
2023-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023190-9540.22632.50436.365170.59159211805004.674.67TF8.226-26.77497445.3736988043875.9770083665410.46386318816469162111122WETL
2023-03-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023190-9541.4533.11637.283170.72992629063004.794.79TF9.45-17.5597445.427282373276.0477670874130.51171926060545163111122.5WETL
2023-03-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023190-9542.49430.3836.437171.38841066748004.874.87TF10.494-23.50697445.6820875188176.3847446428120.55243121620704163111122.5WETL
2023-03-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023190-9543.21433.0838.147169.74547352969004.734.73TF11.214-16.78697445.0455457468775.5444669050820.58021557562673163111122.5WETL
2023-03-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023190-9540.96430.45235.708170.03575294863004.694.69TF8.964-20.03697445.1582052847775.6928106168580.49269933098875162111122WETL
2023-03-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023190-9540.04630.32635.186170.431005476030.098425250.098425254.584.67842525TF8.046-29.95497445.3114721506475.8948819486470.45685289718894162112124WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:07FORECAST2023190-9537.63429.24633.44175.95249754013004.954.95TF5.634-35.36697447.4365273236978.7275744732850.36504488380843162111122WETL
2023-03-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023190-9537.68831.4634.574175.17845348825004.94.9TF5.688-24.31297447.1404143249978.3293662735490.36703816172644162111122WETL
2023-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023190-9536.84230.16433.503178.08016205434005.265.26TF4.842-28.15897448.2474789604479.8239836937230.33625331169055162111122WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023190-9542.40438.82240.613182.0363855135600.065.885.94TF10.404-16.59697449.7437777487381.8697317085940.54893709725975163111122.5WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023190-9534.35832.3633.359181.5270174973100.055.715.76TF2.358-37.64297449.5519699513281.6058283153060.25256659323527162111122WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:22FORECAST2023190-9526.27625.28625.781184.479490252960.023622060.193622065.996.18362206TF-5.724-50.72497450.6603124046983.1375847096580.072116585237806161112123WETL